Despite winning eleven games this season, Boise State continues to garner little respect. Computer whiz Jeff Sagarin has tabbed Nevada as a one-point favorite in this Saturday's Bronco-Wolf Pack game.
goes for the undisputed Western Athletic Conference title this Saturday
afternoon in Reno against the
Nevada Wolf Pack as a one-point underdog. Jeff Sagarin, the respected college football ratings expert whose
Sagarin ratings are one of six computer rating services that are used by the
Bowl Championship Series, has Nevada as the favorite going into Saturday's
game. The Sagarin ratings are published
each week in USA Today and can be found online at Sagarin College
As Sagarin explains "PURE POINTS, also known as PREDICTOR, is the best single PREDICTOR
of future games
To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the PREDICTOR RATINGS of the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 2.74 points for the home team. In the Boise State-Nevada game, Nevada has a Predictor Rating of 80.93 while Boise State has a rating of 82.59. After adding the 2.74 point home field advantage for the Wolf Pack, they get a score of 83.67, making them the favorite by over a point.
Pundits at ESPN and College Football News have also published articles that favor Nevada.
In comparing the WAC
results of Boise State
and Nevada, one can see why the
Pack is favored.
won 41-34 at home while Nevada
lost to the Rainbow Warriors by the same score on the road. Advantage: Roughly even.
won 55-14 at home while Nevada
won 42-0 on the road. Advantage: Nevada
Vs. New Mexico
won 40-28 on the road while Nevada
won 48-21 at home. Slight
won 42-26 on the road while Nevada
won 45-7 on the road. Huge
Vs. San Jose
won 23-20 on the road while Nevada
won 23-7 at home. Advantage: Nevada
won 49-10 while Nevada won 42-0
at home. Slight Advantage: Nevada
won 45-21 at home while Nevada
lost 28-19 on the road. Huge
has a huge advantage against Fresno State
and the Hawai'i game is basically
played slightly better against New Mexico
State and Utah
State, better against Louisiana Tech and San Jose State
and far better against Idaho. The sum of these results is that Nevada
has played better against the most WAC opponents. Outside of their season-opening stumble, the Wolf Pack have played brilliantly, winning five in a row and eight of their
has outscored its opponents by a whopping 200-35 in the last five games, an
average score of 40-7.
Bronco fans are hoping their team can pull off the upset in Reno
and come back to Boise with a
win. The nationally-televised game will
kick off at 2 p.m. Mountain time.