The E/A Simulations Explored

Part Two continues the Boise State simulation report with a summary of the Bronco seasons in all 50 simulations and a Rankings summary of all the teams that finished in the BCS Top 25 in the 50 simulations.

In Part One of the E/A Sports Boise State Simulations, we showed the results from 50 simulations of each of the 2010 Bronco football games.  Part Two features more in-depth analysis.  We show a breakdown of how each of the 50 seasons went, with the final record, the bowl game the Broncos went to, the opponent, the result, the final regular season ranking and the final post-bowl ranking.

I also recorded all the teams that finished in the BCS Top 25 in the 50 simulations and break that down in the Rankings section.

 

The Boise State Seasons:

 

 

Final Record

Bowl

Opponent

Pre-Bowl Ranking

Post-Bowl Ranking

13-0

Sugar

USC (41-6)

4

2

12-1

Sugar

TCU (44-24)

4

2

13-0

N. Champ

Wisconsin (22-17)

2

1

12-1

Emerald

Kansas State (42-10)

8

6

13-0

Sugar

Arkansas (49-30)

3

2

12-1

Rose

Washington (31-55)

5

7

12-1

Rose

Stanford (24-27)

3

7

12-1

N. Champ

Nebraska (21-24)

1

4

13-0

Rose

Stanford (30-19)

4

3

12-1

Orange

Georgia Tech (28-14)

7

4

13-0

N. Champ

TCU (49-24)

1

1

13-0

Sugar

Stanford (24-17)

3

3

13-0

Rose

USC (32-31)

4

2

12-1

Human.

Mississippi (42-10)

14

10

12-1

Rose

Washington (38-22)

6

3

12-1

Sugar

Arkansas (48-31)

4

3

11-2

Human.

Baylor (33-7)

12

10

11-2

Emerald

California (40-17)

7

6

13-0

N. Champ

TCU (47-14)

1

1

13-0

Rose

Washington (27-22)

3

2

12-1

Human.

Pittsburgh (28-10)

8

6

12-1

Sugar

Virginia Tech (40-12)

4

3

13-0

Sugar

Georgia Tech (20-13)

3

2

13-0

Rose

Stanford (38-14)

3

2

13-0

Rose

Washington (25-23)

4

3

11-2

Emerald

Arizona (45-17)

10

9

12-1

N. Champ

Alabama (8-13)

2

4

11-2

Sugar

Wisconsin (6-42)

4

8

11-2

Orange

Florida State (26-34)

4

9

12-1

Orange

Auburn (44-20)

5

4

13-0

Sugar

TCU (38-34)

3

2

13-0

N. Champ

TCU (35-32)

1

1

13-0

N. Champ

Alabama (27-24)

2

1

12-1

Emerald

Oklahoma (35-20)

8

6

12-1

Sugar

Texas Tech (52-22)

4

3

13-0

Rose

Washington (30-27)

5

3

13-0

Rose

Stanford (31-14)

4

3

13-0

Sugar

Alabama (36-33)

4

2

13-0

Rose

USC (34-13)

5

3

12-1

Sugar

Rutgers (44-21)

4

2

13-0

Rose

Stanford (55-21)

5

3

12-1

Sugar

Ohio State (16-34)

5

8

12-1

Rose

Wisconsin (24-12)

4

3

12-1

Sugar

TCU (24-17)

4

2

11-2

Human.

Pittsburgh (26-7)

25

21

12-1

Sugar

TCU (41-24)

5

3

13-0

Sugar

Georgia Tech (28-6)

3

2

10-3

Fiesta

West Virginia (17-34)

5

11

12-1

Sugar

TCU (39-18)

4

2

11-2

Poinsettia

UCLA (41-14)

13

10

 

 

 

 

The Rankings:

 

These comments reflect on the final BCS Standings in each of the 50 simulations.  They are of course the ranking before the bowl games are played.

 

Alabama : 

The Crimson Tide finished #1 22 times and #2 17 times, meaning the Crimson Tide monopolized a spot in the mythical national championship game with 39 appearances in 50 simulations.  Alabama finished in the Top 10 in 50 of 50 simulations (100%).

 

Ohio State :

The Buckeyes finished #1 in 13 simulations and #2 in 5 simulations, giving Ohio State 18 title game appearances.  Ohio State finished the season in the Top 10 in 48 of 50 simulations (96%) and was also ranked in 48 of 50 simulations (96%).

 

Boise State :

The Broncos finished #1 four times and #2 four times, giving the Broncos eight trips to the national title game in 50 simulations (16%).  Boise State finished in the Top 10 in 47 of the 50 simulations (94%), finished in the Top 25 in all 50 simulations (100%) and received a bowl bid in all 50 simulations.

 

TCU:

The Horned Frogs were #1 once and #2 seven times, giving TCU eight title game shots as well.  TCU finished in the Top 10 in 45 of 50 simulations (90%) and in the Top 25 in all 50 simulations (100%).

 

Oklahoma :

The Sooners finished #1 one time and #2 six times, giving Oklahoma seven championship game berths (14%).  Oklahoma finished the season in the Top 10 in 29 of the 50 simulations (58%) and in the Top 25 in 42 simulations (84%).

 

Wisconsin :

The Badgers had seven title game appearances (14%), as they were ranked #1 three times and #2 four times.  They finished in the Top 10 in 38 of 50 simulations (76%) and in the Top 25 in 43 simulations (86%).

 

Washington :

The Huskies are a bit of a surprise here, but with the loss to BYU, I don't know how much of this is possible.  Washington finished #1 once and #2 three times for an 8% chance of reaching the title game.  Jake Locker and company finished in the national Top 10 in 18 of 50 simulations (36%) and in the Top 25 in 37 simulations (74%).  That's quite an improvement up in Seattle .

 

Georgia Tech:

The Yellow Jackets had one finish in the BCS at #2 which earned them a berth in the MNC game.  They finished in the Top 10 in 25 of 50 simulations (50%) and were one of the regulars in the final Top 25 with 37 simulations (74%).

 

Utah :

The Utes will celebrate their final year of being a non-AQ with what appears to be a good season.  Utah was ranked #2 once to give them a championship game slot.  The Utes finished in the Top 10 an impressive 21 times (42%) and in the Top 25 in 38 of 50 simulations (76%).

 

West Virginia :

The Mountaineers finished #1 once and #2 once for two title appearances.  West Virginia finished in the Top 10 in 17 of 50 simulations (34%) and in the Top 25 in 36 simulations (72%).

 

Florida State :

The Seminoles had one appearance in the title game when they finished #2.  FSU finished the season in the Top 10 in eight of 50 simulations (16%) and nationally-ranked in 30 simulations (60%).

 

Nevada :

Some may be surprised to see the Wolf Pack mentioned this high in the conversation but when your schedule includes California , BYU and Boise State and you can achieve double digit wins, you're having a good season.  Nevada achieved a first in its history this year—the Wolf Pack team reached the E/A Sports championship game in a simulation.  Nevada finished #2 in one simulation to land them their berth.  The Pack finished in the Top 10 in nine simulations (18%) and in the national Top 25 in 28 of 50 simulations (56%).

 

Texas :

The Longhorns' bid for a repeat appearance to the championship game hit a brick wall this year.  Texas did finish #2 once for their one title game berth.  The Longhorns finished in the Top 10 in 9 simulations (18%) and in the Top 25 in 28 of 50 simulations (56%).

 

Nebraska :

The Cornhuskers finished the season at #2 one time giving them a title game appearance.  Nebraska finished in the Top 10 in three of 50 simulations (6%) and in the Top 25 in 24 simulations (48%). 

 

Navy:

The Midshipmen could be headed for an outstanding season.  Since they are an opponent of Louisiana Tech, that could bode well for the Broncos and the WAC in general.  They only finished in the Top 25 seven times, but were #1 in one simulation, giving them a berth in the ultimate college football game.

 

Virginia Tech:

Although they couldn't quite climb to one of the top two spots, win or lose Monday the Hokies are going to be in the midst of the great college football teams when the season is done.  The Hokies finished in the Top 10 in 11 of 50 simulations (22%) and in the Top 25 in 37 simulations (74%).

 

Arkansas :

This could be the best season for Razorback football in years.  Arkansas finished the season in the Top 10 in 10 of 50 simulations (20%) and in the Top 25 in 31 (62%).

 

Stanford:

The Cardinal were one of the mainstays in the national rankings this season in the simulations.  Stanford finished in the Top 10 in 15 of 50 simulations (30%) and in the Top 25 27 times (54%).

 

Miami of Florida :

The Hurricanes are projected by E/A Sports to finish in the Top 10 in eight simulations (16%) and in the Top 25 in 24 of 50 (48%).

 

Texas A & M:

While the Aggies aren't expected to finish in the Top 10 but four times (8%), they should wind up the year somewhere in the Top 25 as they finished there 32 times in 50 simulations (64%).

 

Pittsburgh :

The Panthers have a tough road to hoe after losing to Utah .  The software projected them to finish in the Top 10 in 7 of 50 simulations (14%) and in the Top 25 in 24 simulations (48%). 

 

Missouri :

The Tigers only finished in the Top 10 in four simulations (8%) but they landed in the Top 25 in 24 of 50 (48%).

 

Texas Tech:

The Red Raiders try to capitalize on the loss of Colt McCoy with a run of their own.  Tech finished in the Top 10 in four of 50 simulations (8%) and in the Top 25 in 22 simulations (44%).

 

Houston :

The Cougars finished in the Top 10 in four simulations (8%) and in the Top 25 in 20 of 50 simulations (40%). 

 

Oregon :

The Ducks finished in the Top 10 in four simulations (8%) and in the Top 25 in 19 of 50 (38%).

 

Iowa :

The Hawkeyes never finished as high as #2, but they did finish in the Top 10 in 4 of 50 simulations (8%) and in the Top 25 in 15 simulations (30%).

 

Penn State :

Joe Pa's team landed in the Top 10 in three simulations (6%) and in the Top 25 24 times (48%).

 

North Carolina :

The Tar Heels finished in the national Top 10 in two simulations (4%) and in the Top 25 in 19 of 50 (38%).

 

BYU:
The Cougars finished in the national Top 10 in three simulations (6%) and in the Top 25 in 13 of 50 (26%).

 

Fresno State :

The Bulldogs finished the season in the Top 10 in one simulation (2%) and in the Top 25 in 15 of 50 (30%).

 

Michigan State :

The Spartans finished in the Top 10 in one simulation (2%) and in the Top 25 in 11 of 50 (22%).

 

Florida :

The polls are gushing about Florida once again but in the simulations, the Gators finished in the Top 10 in two of 50 simulations (4%) and in the Top 25 in just nine (18%).

 

Auburn :

The Tigers landed in the national Top 10 one time (2%) and in the Top 25 in 14 of 50 simulations (28%).

 

Clemson:

The Tigers finished in the Top 10 in one simulation (2%) and in the Top 25 nine times (18%).

 

Oklahoma State :

The Cowboys were able to finish in the Top 10 once and finished in the Top 25 in 11 of 50 simulations (22%).

 

Rutgers :

The Scarlet Knights also finished in the Top 10 once and in the Top 25 eight times (16%).

 

Boston College :

The Eagles finished in the Top 25 seven times out of 50 simulations (14%).

 

Georgia :

The Bulldogs finished in the Top 25 in six simulations (12%).

 

Michigan :

The Wolverines are supposed to finish in the Top 25 in six simulations (12%) but had to finishes in the Top 10.

 

Notre Dame:

The Fighting Irish matched Michigan with six finishes in the Top 25 (12%) and no finishes in the Top 10.

 

LSU:

The Tigers had five finishes in the national Top 25 in 50 simulations (10%).

 

Oregon State :

The Beavers were able to finish in the Top 25 four times (8%).

 

Minnesota :

The Golden Gophers had three finishes in the Top 25 (6%).

 

Tennessee :

The Vols were able to land a spot in the Top 25 three times (6%).


UCF:

Central Florida finished in the BCS Top 25 in two of 50 simulations (4%).

 

California :

The Golden Bears were able to finish in the Top 25 one time (2%). 

 

Cincinnati :

The Bearcats finished in the Top 25 one time (2%).

 

Colorado State :

The Rams finished in the Top one time in the 50 simulations (2%).

 

Indiana :

The Hoosiers finished in the BCS Top 25 once (2%).

 

Kansas State :

KSU finished in the Top 25 once as well (2%).

 

Louisville :

The Cardinals finished in the Top 25 in one simulation (2%).

 

Mississippi State :

The Bulldogs made their presence known in the Top 25 once (2%).  

SMU :

The Mustangs are another team that landed in the Top 25 once (2%).


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