The NCAA Baseball Bubble Update (Saturday)

Cal State Fullerton needs one win against Long Beach State this weekend to secure the automatic bid for the Big West conference. Even if the Titans are swept they assured a bid to the 2006 NCAA baseball postseason tournament. The Big West is hoping to land two other teams -- UC Irvine and Long Beach State -- but nothing is guaranteed. message board baseball guru FullertonBaseballFan takes a look around the nation and gives us a Bubble Update on the other conferences.

Big West - LB (RPI 44) needs to win at least 1 of 2 to be considered for an at-large spot, Irvine (RPI 40) is probably in the regional field with last night's win and is a lock with one more win this weekend.

ACC - Everybody has figured this to be an 8 bid conference but Wake Forest could have played their way out by going 0-2-BBQ. RPI is 25 but their conference record (16-13) was built on beating up on the 4 bottom feeders (11-1) so they are now 5-14 against teams with a pulse in the ACC. Big conference (ACC/SEC) schools with similar records to Wake's 32-23 and RPI's in the high 20's have been left out before.

A-Sun - Regular season champ Jacksonville (RPI 43) went 1-2 in the conference tournament. This will be a tough call for the committee as to whether they are in, making the A-Sun a 2 bid conference and stealing a bid from a major conference bubble team, or out.

Big East - 1 bid conference if Notre Dame wins the conference tourney final today vs. L'ville. If L'ville wins the title, this will likely be a 2 bid conference with ND (RPI 45) getting an at-large and taking a bid away from another bubble team.

Big South - Winthrop is in (RPI 17) but they have lost once in their conference tourney so this conference looks like a 2 bid conference, which will take a spot away from another bubble team, unless Winthrop wins the conference tourney out of the losers bracket.

Big XII - Kansas (RPI 33) and Mizzou (RPI 47) won their 1st 2 games and play each other today with the winner playing in tomorrow's title game. Both have been projected as "bubble out" teams who needed to win their way into the field. Baylor (RPI 31) lost their first two games and has what could be a must win today against Texas Tech because it could get ugly for Baylor's chances having gone 0-6 down the stretch. Kansas is probably in as an at-large even if they lose to Mizzou. Mizzou needs to win today in order to be considered for an at-large.

The Big XII has a different format with the 4 team groups being round robin instead of double elimination, meaning each team plays 3 games instead of only 2 if you go 0-2-BBQ. The Big XII has been projected as a 5 bid conference with a chance of 6 and possibly even 7 teams if "bubble out" teams such as KU or MU got hot this weekend.

Colonial - Probably a 1 bid conference Old Dominion (RPI 55) went 0-2-BBQ. UNCW (RPI 48 ) has won their first three games and is in the driver's seat.

C-USA - A 4 bid conference unless Memphis beats Rice twice (yeah, sure, that one will happen) and wins the conference tournament to make this a 5 bid conference, taking a spot away from another at-large team.

Missouri Valley - A 1 bid conference with an outside shot at 2 bids. Wichita (RPI 46) went 1-2 in the tournament. Missouri State (RPI 50) is in the driver's seat at 3-0. Wichita did sweep Long Beach (RPI 44) at Blair Field if it comes down to the last spot in the field between those two.

Pac 10 - 4 bids if Stanford (RPI 41) beats Davis today, possibly down to 3 bids if Stanford loses to Davis again (LHP Potter, who beat Fullerton 2-1, shut out Stanford last night) and their RPI takes a beating. Nobody else on the outside looking in will play their way in due to high RPI's

SEC - Everybody's favorite whipping boy for the # of spots they get, which is likely to be 8. LSU (RPI 36) is back on the bubble after winning on Wed but losing Thursday and yesterday. Despite having their AD on the selection committee, MSU (RPI 34) is likely not to make the field due to all of the upsets and their play down the stretch (losing 7 of last 8 series).

Southern - 2 bid conference (Elon - RPI 23 and C of C - RPI 19) unless somebody else wins the conference tourney, which probably makes this a 3 bid conference C of C beat Elon after each won their first two games so C of C is in the driver's seat.

Sun Belt - Probably a 2 bid conference with an outside shot at 3 bids with 4 teams vying for those 2 and possibly 3 bids. Troy (RPI 22, conference champ) is in the title game and is a lock. Louisiana Lafayette (RPI 53, 2nd place) was eliminated yesterday by Middle Tennessee (RPI 66). LL has been hot in the last month but is in trouble due to their RPI. South Alabama (RPI 39) went 1-2 and was eliminated by LL yesterday and is on the bubble but will probably be in if Troy wins the title today. If MTSU wins the title today, South Alabama could be in trouble and LL would definitely be out.

WCC - Probably a 2 bid conference after USF (RPI 49) won the first game yesterday in the best of 3 series vs. Pepperdine USD (RPI 59) will not make the field as the 3rd team from the WCC, who has never gotten 3 teams in the field. Too many other spots being gobbled up by bubble teams and upsets in conference tournaments.

WAC - A 2 bid conference as long as Hawaii (RPI 37) or Fresno (RPI 32) wins the conference tourney If somebody else wins the conference tourney, this would be a 3 bid conference Nevada upset Hawaii yesterday and Nevada plays Fresno today, with the winner sitting in the driver's seat at 3-0.