T's Cal Football 2003 -- Predictions - Games 1 - 7

<p class=txt>[Note from The CyberBear Insider: OneKeg made his predictions before the first game was played.]

"Let's get down to business, I don't got no time to play around, what is this, Must be a circus in town, let's shut the sh#t down on these clowns, can I get a witness {hell yeah}" -- Eminem 

The following sections describe the thirteen games on Cal's 2003 regular season schedule, along with some game analysis and predictions that are worth exactly what you have paid for them. 

August 23rd -- Kansas City, MO 

California Golden Bears vs. Kansas State Wildcats 

"Now brain, I don't like you and you don't like me, so let's just do this thing and then I can get back to killing you with beer." -- Homer Simpson 

The Bears begin the 2003 season in the spotlight against a great team. The Black Coaches Association Classic will be aired on ESPN from a "neutral site", pitting the Kansas State Wildcats from 120 miles away in Manhattan, Kansas. California, on the other hand will travel nearly 1,200+ miles to play a team that has very quickly become one of the most feared squads in the nation's toughest conference. 

The Wildcats are devastating on offense with Senior dual-threat quarterback Ell Roberson and Junior tailback Darren Sproles up for the Davey O'Brien and Doak Walker awards for the nation's best signal-caller and runner. Last year, only teams such as Texas, with tremendous team speed, were able to contain the K-State attack, and even the powerful USC Trojans were outscored in Manhattan for their only loss. 

Nevertheless, if the Bears can compose themselves in their opener against a hostile crowd, they may be able to find a little daylight against a defense that, while very good, lost linebacker Terry Pierce and All-Everything cornerback Terence Newman (Thorpe award winner in 2002) to the NFL. In addition Kansas State's extremely stingy run defense from last season may loosen slightly after losing three of four starters on the defensive line to graduation. Finally, K-State does not want the game to come down to field goals (for that matter, neither may Cal), as they blew nine extra points and a potential game-tying field goal against Texas last year.

 The Bears more athletic linebackers do match up better against Sproles and Roberson on the ground, but that is unlikely to be enough. Reggie Robertson and/or Aaron Rodgers will most likely need to put the ball in the air with Newman gone and with Senior linebacker Josh Buhl terrorizing opposing runners. Expect Cal to at least put up a fight against a superior team. 

Prediction: Kansas State 35 California 17

August 30th – Berkeley, CA
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ California Golden Bears


"A man who won't die for something is not fit to live."
-- Dr. Martin Luther King

Aside: the most important thing about the University of Southern Mississippi, at least if you are a Bear fan, is that they are from Hattiesburg, Mississippi, a short drive down Interstate 10 from the Big Easy. So now's the time to start planning the road trip for Cal's road game at Bourbon Street, er … Southern Miss. in 2004.

The Golden Eagles have consistently had a good football team for the last several years. Whoever is behind center for the Bears will be in danger's way, facing several of the top defensive players in college football. Of these, the best is Senior linebacker Rod Davis, a leading candidate for the Butkus award, given to the nation's most outstanding collegiate linebacker. Davis is an All-American and two-time All-Conference-USA selection. Lining up behind Davis, Senior safety Etric Pruitt is another candidate for national honors. Overall, Southern Mississippi's senior-laden defense may be even tougher than Kansas State's.

Just like Cal, however, Southern Mississippi has no proven returning quarterback or running back and inconsistency on offense may be their Achilles' Heel. Look for Tedford's Bears to force a few turnovers and grind out a close contest.

Prediction: California 20 Southern Mississippi 17

September 6th – Berkeley, CA
Colorado State Rams @ California Golden Bears


"Have you ever heard of the emancipation proclamation?"
- Chef

"I don't listen to hip-hop"
- Army general
-- South Park


You may not yet have heard of Bradlee Van Pelt, but Cal defensive coordinator Bob Gregory certainly has. Even though the Bears will face several excellent quarterbacks throughout the course of the season (see Kansas State's Ell Roberson, Arizona State's Andrew Walter, and Washington's Cody Pickett for starters) Van Pelt may be the best of them all. With his surfer-like attitude and linebacker-like toughness, Van Pelt reminds some of a faster, more talented Mike Pawlawski. Van Pelt can both run (819 yards, 11 TDs), and pass (2,073 yards, 10 TDs) and directs his team with an overabundance of confidence and trash talk.

Though the Rams must replace now-graduated running back Cecil Sapp (1,601 yards, 17 TDs), almost all the rest of the offensive unit returns to support Van Pelt, including four of five linemen. In addition, two-time All-Mountain-West Senior return specialist Dexter Wynn may bring his explosiveness by playing partly on offense at receiver in addition to his starting cornerback role.

So Cal's athletic but inexperienced defensive ends and linebackers will be severely tested trying to corral Van Pelt. Unfortunately, Colorado State's also boasts a fairly experienced defense, led by Senior linebacker Eric Pauly. It's not hard to see why the Rams are ranked in the pre-season top-25, and why the Bears may have a tough time of it in this game.

Prediction: Colorado State 33 California 19

(Thursday) September 11th – Salt Lake City, UT
Rest in peace, those we lost two years ago this day.

California Golden Bears @ Utah Fighting Utes


"How can you go out of the house dressed like that on a weekday, sir?"
-- The Big Lebowski

"Is it a – ah, what day is it?"
-- The Dude


Cal plays its second ESPN game of the season in the Rocky Mountains against another team from the Mountain West conference that loves to upset Pac-10 foes. Utah returns much of last year's defense that led the conference in giving up the fewest yards and points, led by Senior defensive end Jason Kaufusi and Senior safety Dave Revill, along with defensive coordinator Kyle Whittingham.

However, the rest of the team may be quite different, including a new head coach, Urban Meyer, who replaces Ron McBride after Utah went 5-6 in 2002. Meyer led a remarkable turnaround at Bowling Green during the last two years and hopes to do the same at Utah. He will have a great weapon in Senior running back Brandon Warfield, who rushed for 919 yards in nine games during his first season of division I college football and another in Senior running back Marty Johnson, who rushed for 405 yards in two games as a starter last season before being injured and giving way to Warfield.

The difference will be in the passing game where several fairly inexperienced quarterbacks will compete for the starting spot, and two talented but new wide receivers may be their primary targets, including Junior Parris Warren, a transfer from Oregon, and JC transfer Jerome Wright.

This is a classic trap game for Cal, with a short week, after playing three very highly-rated opponents, traveling to a high-altitude location, against an up-and-coming team with a chip on its shoulder. Unlike the first three games, Cal will not be outmanned in any way talent-wise, but yet may have just as hard a time pulling out a victory.

Prediction: Utah 17 California 16

September 20th – Champaign, IL
California Golden Bears @ Illinois Fighting Illini

"One is the party of people who name their cats Che and the other is the party of people who name their sons Trey."
-- Michael Kelly


It's Dad's Day in Champaign, and Fighting Illini will take on a Bears team that the home crowd will feel confident of beating since they know us primarily as the doormats they trampled in the pre-Tedford years. But Illinois no longer has star receivers Brandon Lloyd (San Francisco 49ers) and Walter Young, running back Antoineo Harris, and two former All-Big Ten offensive linemen in Tony Pashos and Dave Diehl. Moreover, after a Big Ten title in 2001, Illinois started weakly last season and managed to recover only slightly to a 5-7 record. Part of the recovery was lead by now Senior quarterback Jon Beutjer who averaged over 300 yards and had 21 touchdowns over seven starts (albeit much of that to the departed Lloyd and Young).

Illinois' strength will be in their defense, led by one of the best defensive ends in the country, Senior Derrick Strong. Still, after a long week to prepare, Tedford's team should be ready to give the Illini everything they can handle.

Prediction: California 27 Illinois 24

September 27th – Berkeley, CA
Southern California Trojans @ California Golden Bears

"I am troubled by the injustice of the world, that so many who deserve to suffer do not."
-- The Checkerboard Ninja


Southern Cal may have been the best college football team in the country by the end of 2002, and they have reloaded with one of the best recruiting classes in college football over the off-season. Despite the plethora of talented newcomers, it still remains to be seen whether the Trojans will remain the juggernaut that they were eight months ago, with quarterback Carson Palmer (first pick in the NFL draft), running backs Justin Fargas and Sultan McCullough, wide receiver Kareem Kelly, and cornerback Darrell Rideaux.

Quarterback is the area of greatest uncertainty, though Palmer's heirs lack nothing in talent, only experience, particularly Purdue transfer Brandon Hance, Sophomore Matt Leinart, and Junior Matt Cassel. Other than at quarterback, USC appears plenty of proven talent to fill its holes. Several young high-school All-American running backs, led by Sophomore Hershel Dennis, are waiting to replace Fargas. And on the edge, Sophomore wide receiver Mike Williams may have been the Pac-10's best Freshman last year. Strongest of all will be a USC offensive line that returns four starters from a group that consistently blew up opposing defenses in 2002.

Unlike some of the other top Pac-10 teams that are more offense-heavy (Washington, Arizona State), Trojans' head coach Pete Carroll has focused as much on defense as on offense in building a dominant team. Despite losing All-Pac-10 safety Troy Polamalu, Southern Cal returns a devastating defensive line with ends Omar Nazel and Kenechi Udeze and tackles Mike Patterson and Shaun Cody. The linebacking corps is spearheaded by Butkus award candidate Junior Matt Grootegoed, and Senior cornerbacks Kevin Arbet and Marcell Allmond.

Despite the Bears' resurgence, it will be difficult to catch a team like USC over the years given their tradition, stellar recruiting, and (now) good coaching. It will take a letdown by the Trojans for Cal to prevail in this contest.

Prediction: Southern Cal 30 California 17

October 4th – Berkeley, CA
Oregon State Beavers @ California Golden Bears

"So let me get to the point, lets roll another joint. 
Turn the radio loud, I'm too alone to be proud."
-- Tom Petty

Cal had a pretty decent run defense last year – with the exception of three games. One exception was against Air Force's option attack, another was against USC's dominant offensive line, and the third was against Steven Jackson of Oregon State. The 6'3" 229 lb. Junior running back with breakaway speed is both a Doak Walker and a Heisman award candidate this year and is the Beavers best hope to put them into Pac-10 contention after averaging 130 yards a game in 2002.

OSU's quarterback, Junior Derek Anderson has the physical tools (6'6", rocket arm) to dominate just as Jackson does, but he is struggling to achieve consistency, and most of his 25 touchdowns came against overmatched non-conference foes in 2002. The Beavers hope 2003 is Anderson's breakout year, and Anderson will have a strong receiving corps to throw to, led by Senior James Newson. Moreover, Oregon State returns every starter from last season's offensive line, and should provide the Beavers' superior skill position players with plenty of room to operate.

Oregon State's defense must recover from the loss of several stars to the NFL, including corner Dennis Weathersby, safety Calvin Carlyle, and tackle Eric Manning. Anchoring the remaining defensive squad for the Beavers will be Butkus award candidate, Senior Richard Seigler, who will most likely spend the Saturday becoming very familiar with Bear running backs. The bottom line is that while OSU has lost enough so that Cal should be able to move the ball, the Beavers' offense has too much firepower for the Bears' young defense to contain for four quarters.

Prediction: Oregon State 34 California 24

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The following sections describe the thirteen games on Cal's 2003 regular season schedule, along with some game analysis and predictions that are worth exactly what you have paid for them. 

August 23rd -- Kansas City, MO 

 

The Bears begin the 2003 season in the spotlight against a great team. The Black Coaches Association Classic will be aired on ESPN from a \"neutral site\", pitting the Kansas State Wildcats from 120 miles away in Manhattan, Kansas. California, on the other hand will travel nearly 1,200+ miles to play a team that has very quickly become one of the most feared squads in the nation's toughest conference. 

The Wildcats are devastating on offense with Senior dual-threat quarterback Ell Roberson and Junior tailback Darren Sproles up for the Davey O'Brien and Doak Walker awards for the nation's best signal-caller and runner. Last year, only teams such as Texas, with tremendous team speed, were able to contain the K-State attack, and even the powerful USC Trojans were outscored in Manhattan for their only loss. 

Nevertheless, if the Bears can compose themselves in their opener against a hostile crowd, they may be able to find a little daylight against a defense that, while very good, lost linebacker Terry Pierce and All-Everything cornerback Terence Newman (Thorpe award winner in 2002) to the NFL. In addition Kansas State's extremely stingy run defense from last season may loosen slightly after losing three of four starters on the defensive line to graduation. Finally, K-State does not want the game to come down to field goals (for that matter, neither may Cal), as they blew nine extra points and a potential game-tying field goal against Texas last year.

 The Bears more athletic linebackers do match up better against Sproles and Roberson on the ground, but that is unlikely to be enough. Reggie Robertson and/or Aaron Rodgers will most likely need to put the ball in the air with Newman gone and with Senior linebacker Josh Buhl terrorizing opposing runners. Expect Cal to at least put up a fight against a superior team. 




Aside: the most important thing about the University of Southern Mississippi, at least if you are a Bear fan, is that they are from Hattiesburg, Mississippi, a short drive down Interstate 10 from the Big Easy. So now's the time to start planning the road trip for Cal's road game at Bourbon Street, er … Southern Miss. in 2004.

The Golden Eagles have consistently had a good football team for the last several years. Whoever is behind center for the Bears will be in danger's way, facing several of the top defensive players in college football. Of these, the best is Senior linebacker Rod Davis, a leading candidate for the Butkus award, given to the nation's most outstanding collegiate linebacker. Davis is an All-American and two-time All-Conference-USA selection. Lining up behind Davis, Senior safety Etric Pruitt is another candidate for national honors. Overall, Southern Mississippi's senior-laden defense may be even tougher than Kansas State's.

Just like Cal, however, Southern Mississippi has no proven returning quarterback or running back and inconsistency on offense may be their Achilles' Heel. Look for Tedford's Bears to force a few turnovers and grind out a close contest.





You may not yet have heard of Bradlee Van Pelt, but Cal defensive coordinator Bob Gregory certainly has. Even though the Bears will face several excellent quarterbacks throughout the course of the season (see Kansas State's Ell Roberson, Arizona State's Andrew Walter, and Washington's Cody Pickett for starters) Van Pelt may be the best of them all. With his surfer-like attitude and linebacker-like toughness, Van Pelt reminds some of a faster, more talented Mike Pawlawski. Van Pelt can both run (819 yards, 11 TDs), and pass (2,073 yards, 10 TDs) and directs his team with an overabundance of confidence and trash talk.

Though the Rams must replace now-graduated running back Cecil Sapp (1,601 yards, 17 TDs), almost all the rest of the offensive unit returns to support Van Pelt, including four of five linemen. In addition, two-time All-Mountain-West Senior return specialist Dexter Wynn may bring his explosiveness by playing partly on offense at receiver in addition to his starting cornerback role.

So Cal's athletic but inexperienced defensive ends and linebackers will be severely tested trying to corral Van Pelt. Unfortunately, Colorado State's also boasts a fairly experienced defense, led by Senior linebacker Eric Pauly. It's not hard to see why the Rams are ranked in the pre-season top-25, and why the Bears may have a tough time of it in this game.





Cal plays its second ESPN game of the season in the Rocky Mountains against another team from the Mountain West conference that loves to upset Pac-10 foes. Utah returns much of last year's defense that led the conference in giving up the fewest yards and points, led by Senior defensive end Jason Kaufusi and Senior safety Dave Revill, along with defensive coordinator Kyle Whittingham.

However, the rest of the team may be quite different, including a new head coach, Urban Meyer, who replaces Ron McBride after Utah went 5-6 in 2002. Meyer led a remarkable turnaround at Bowling Green during the last two years and hopes to do the same at Utah. He will have a great weapon in Senior running back Brandon Warfield, who rushed for 919 yards in nine games during his first season of division I college football and another in Senior running back Marty Johnson, who rushed for 405 yards in two games as a starter last season before being injured and giving way to Warfield.

The difference will be in the passing game where several fairly inexperienced quarterbacks will compete for the starting spot, and two talented but new wide receivers may be their primary targets, including Junior Parris Warren, a transfer from Oregon, and JC transfer Jerome Wright.

This is a classic trap game for Cal, with a short week, after playing three very highly-rated opponents, traveling to a high-altitude location, against an up-and-coming team with a chip on its shoulder. Unlike the first three games, Cal will not be outmanned in any way talent-wise, but yet may have just as hard a time pulling out a victory.



It's Dad's Day in Champaign, and Fighting Illini will take on a Bears team that the home crowd will feel confident of beating since they know us primarily as the doormats they trampled in the pre-Tedford years. But Illinois no longer has star receivers Brandon Lloyd (San Francisco 49ers) and Walter Young, running back Antoineo Harris, and two former All-Big Ten offensive linemen in Tony Pashos and Dave Diehl. Moreover, after a Big Ten title in 2001, Illinois started weakly last season and managed to recover only slightly to a 5-7 record. Part of the recovery was lead by now Senior quarterback Jon Beutjer who averaged over 300 yards and had 21 touchdowns over seven starts (albeit much of that to the departed Lloyd and Young).

Illinois' strength will be in their defense, led by one of the best defensive ends in the country, Senior Derrick Strong. Still, after a long week to prepare, Tedford's team should be ready to give the Illini everything they can handle.



Southern Cal may have been the best college football team in the country by the end of 2002, and they have reloaded with one of the best recruiting classes in college football over the off-season. Despite the plethora of talented newcomers, it still remains to be seen whether the Trojans will remain the juggernaut that they were eight months ago, with quarterback Carson Palmer (first pick in the NFL draft), running backs Justin Fargas and Sultan McCullough, wide receiver Kareem Kelly, and cornerback Darrell Rideaux.

Quarterback is the area of greatest uncertainty, though Palmer's heirs lack nothing in talent, only experience, particularly Purdue transfer Brandon Hance, Sophomore Matt Leinart, and Junior Matt Cassel. Other than at quarterback, USC appears plenty of proven talent to fill its holes. Several young high-school All-American running backs, led by Sophomore Hershel Dennis, are waiting to replace Fargas. And on the edge, Sophomore wide receiver Mike Williams may have been the Pac-10's best Freshman last year. Strongest of all will be a USC offensive line that returns four starters from a group that consistently blew up opposing defenses in 2002.

Unlike some of the other top Pac-10 teams that are more offense-heavy (Washington, Arizona State), Trojans' head coach Pete Carroll has focused as much on defense as on offense in building a dominant team. Despite losing All-Pac-10 safety Troy Polamalu, Southern Cal returns a devastating defensive line with ends Omar Nazel and Kenechi Udeze and tackles Mike Patterson and Shaun Cody. The linebacking corps is spearheaded by Butkus award candidate Junior Matt Grootegoed, and Senior cornerbacks Kevin Arbet and Marcell Allmond.

Despite the Bears' resurgence, it will be difficult to catch a team like USC over the years given their tradition, stellar recruiting, and (now) good coaching. It will take a letdown by the Trojans for Cal to prevail in this contest.


Cal had a pretty decent run defense last year – with the exception of three games. One exception was against Air Force's option attack, another was against USC's dominant offensive line, and the third was against Steven Jackson of Oregon State. The 6'3\" 229 lb. Junior running back with breakaway speed is both a Doak Walker and a Heisman award candidate this year and is the Beavers best hope to put them into Pac-10 contention after averaging 130 yards a game in 2002.

OSU's quarterback, Junior Derek Anderson has the physical tools (6'6\", rocket arm) to dominate just as Jackson does, but he is struggling to achieve consistency, and most of his 25 touchdowns came against overmatched non-conference foes in 2002. The Beavers hope 2003 is Anderson's breakout year, and Anderson will have a strong receiving corps to throw to, led by Senior James Newson. Moreover, Oregon State returns every starter from last season's offensive line, and should provide the Beavers' superior skill position players with plenty of room to operate.

Oregon State's defense must recover from the loss of several stars to the NFL, including corner Dennis Weathersby, safety Calvin Carlyle, and tackle Eric Manning. Anchoring the remaining defensive squad for the Beavers will be Butkus award candidate, Senior Richard Seigler, who will most likely spend the Saturday becoming very familiar with Bear running backs. The bottom line is that while OSU has lost enough so that Cal should be able to move the ball, the Beavers' offense has too much firepower for the Bears' young defense to contain for four quarters.

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