Fun With Numbers - Around the Pac-10

As the season progresses, teams appear to be getting testier as penalty numbers rose across the board last weekend; highlighted by Arizona State's 153-yard effort against North Carolina, which just barely surpassed Oregon State's 141-yard flag-a-thon against Washington. Not to be forgotten was Washington State which had 116 yards worth of penalties against Stanford. The Beavers still have a robust 78-yard lead over the Cougars in their quest to be the most penalized team in the Pac-10.</p>

(This is the another in a series of columns that will look at Pac-10 football teams - primarily by picking out elements that stood out from the previous week's box scores, play-by-play and statistics of both the team involved and its prospective opponent.)

California (3-5, 1-2 Pac-10) This Week:  vs. Arizona
Last Week:  L, 24-21 at UCLA
Key Stat: 10-of-25; the sum efforts of Cal and Arizona's field goal efforts going into Saturday's game.
Of the 11 Cal-Arizona games played at Berkeley, Cal's largest winning margin is 3 points, with the other two wins coming by one point each. Last week, against UCLA, QB Aaron Rodgers had a strong game, (28 of 41 for 322 yards) throwing to several different receivers as well as throwing to RBs with greater frequency. Rodgers won't be facing a pass rush nearly as formidable as UCLA's as the Wildcats have managed three sacks in three conference games. All eyes will be on the field goal unit as the Bears enter the game having gone 8-of-18 on field goals with four blocks. Passable numbers for a power forward but not a field goal unit. On Saturday, they'll have company as Arizona is 1-of-4 on field goals inside the red zone and 2-of-7 from anywhere on the field.

 

Team Logo Arizona (1-6, 0-3 Pac-10) This Week:  at California
Last Week:  IDLE
Key stat: Out of 96 pass attempts, Kris Heavner has thrown eight interceptions.
True freshman Kris Heavner is firmly entrenched as the team's starting QB, but Cal has to keep an eye out on Nic Costa, who's seen action in six games. Costa's not very accurate (43.5%) but is a big running threat; out of 15 carries, he's had runs of 43, 30, and 27 yards.  In two of their past three games, the Wildcats have kept the score close - losing to TCU in overtime and losing by a field goal to UCLA. With the exception of the relatively toothless Bruin attack, Arizona's been outgained significantly in five of its last six games. The Wildcat defense is surrendering 446 yards a game, which makes them 103rd (out of 117 teams). All of Arizona's losses have been to teams in Jeff Sagarin's top 50.

 

Team Logo Arizona State (4-3, 1-2 Pac-10) This Week: at UCLA
Last Week: W, 33-31 at North Carolina
Key Facts:  Arizona State is not a good road team and this Saturday's game is on the road
While Arizona State's 59-14 defeat of Oregon might have made the Sun Devils look a little bit than originally thought, last Saturday's win at North Carolina made them look worse. ASU beat the now 1-6 Tar Heels on the last play of the game after driving 61 yards in 36 seconds. ASU's 267-yard offensive advantage was mitigated by 153 yards in penalties. Andrew Walter was sacked once, while going 34-of-58 for 408 yards and three touchdowns. With two of their remaining games against Arizona and Stanford, ASU's chances of being bowl eligible are very good.

 

Team Logo Oregon (4-3, 1-2 Pac-10) This Week: vs. Stanford
Last Week: IDLE
Key Stat: 38.0 (Dr. Jekyll) and 14.3 (Mr. Hyde)
Which Oregon team will emerge this Saturday? The one with the explosive offense in the first four games when it averaged 38 points a game, or the one that was stagnant in the past three games when it averaged 14.3 points a game. The Ducks' defense will get a break this week - they have the 109th ranked pass defense in NCAA Division I, but they face Stanford which has the 97th ranked pass offense in Division I.  A loss on Saturday would seriously endanger the Ducks chances of reaching 6 wins and becoming bowl eligible. Oregon closes with Washington, Cal, UCLA, and Oregon State.

 

Team Logo Oregon State (5-2, 2-1 Pac-10) This Week: at Washington State
Last Week: L, 38-17 vs. Washington
Key Stat: 15 penalties, 141 yards in its loss to Washington
This game was Exhibit A for why some people have a difficult time respecting Oregon State football. For one week, Oregon State had a chance to make a big impression on a national audience against an opponent which it figured to look good against. Instead, last Saturday's game was an interminable, cynical game where both teams combined for 246 yards of penalties. Along with Beaver's massive penalty yardage, six of the 21 first downs they game were due directly to penalties. At one point during the broadcast, the referee went over to the sideline reporter to comment about the level of onfield nonsense. Steven Jackson ran for 49 yards damaging his Heisman hopes and Derek Anderson struggled on a national cable TV night game for the second time this year as he threw three interceptions and was sacked five times. With Washington State, Oregon and USC still to be played, a Rose Bowl bid is not out of the question, but they'll have to win out and hope for UCLA to stumble.

 

Team Logo Stanford (2-3, 0-3 Pac-10) This Week:  at Oregon
Last Week:  L, 24-14 vs. Washington State
Key Stat:Trent Edwards, 11-of-28 for 122 yards; Chris Lewis, 8-of-22 for 95 yards
This isn't exactly Kellen Clemens/Jason Fife or Chance Mock/Vincent Young, but it looks like Stanford may soon have a QB controversy. The stats for the two QBs were similar against Washington State.   In 10 possessions under Edwards, the offense had 10 first downs and a touchdown plus five possessions with no first downs before leaving the game in the third quarter with a shoulder injury. In seven possessions under Lewis, the offense had 7 first downs and a touchdown plus four possessions with no first downs. Based on last week's game performance, both quarterbacks' performances were relatively equal. Lewis has been announced as the starter for Saturday's game, but Buddy Teevens didn't rule out the possibility of two or even three quarterbacks playing this weekend.

 

Team Logo UCLA (5-2, 3-0 Pac-10) This Week:  vs. Arizona State
Last Week:  W, 23-20 vs. Cal
Key Stat: 10th, 8th, 10th, and 8th; how UCLA's  total offense, rushing, passing, and scoring rank in the Pac-10.
It'll be interesting to see if QB Matt Moore will be able to jump start the Bruins' tepid offense. UCLA has won   its last two conference games by three points each while being outgained 916 to 561.  Of the 244 yards that UCLA gained against Cal, 100 came on three plays, and 144 yards on the other 54. Aside from its unusual 46-16 win over Washington, the Bruins average margin of victory is less than five points a game. A win Saturday could put UCLA in good position to 5-0 in conference play going into its last three games - against Washington State, Oregon and USC.

 

Team Logo USC (6-1, 2-1 Pac-10) This Week:  at Washington
Last Week:  W, 45-14 at Notre Dame
Key Stat: In its six wins, USC's average victory margin is 23.8
In hindsight, Cal's win over USC is more remarkable considering that USC has destroyed every other team its played this year - including convincing road wins at Auburn and Notre Dame. The Trojans have been especially strong in their past three games, outgaining the opposition by 272 yards, 251 yards, and 163 yards. Against the Irish, USC gave up 148 net yards in the first three possessions, but just 103 yards in Notre Dame's last nine possessions. While the Washington game figures to be USC's last tough road game, home games against UCLA, Oregon State and Washington State still beckon. With Virginia Tech's loss on Thursday, the Trojans' slim chances to end up in the BCS championship rose slightly.  The Trojans are currently 7th - but the difference between the 4th and 7th ranked teams (including Georgia, Florida State, and Ohio State) is very small.

 

Team Logo Washington (4-3, 2-1 Pac-10) This Week: vs. USC
Last Week: W, 38-17 at Oregon State
Key Stat: 216 yards receiving, 155 return yards, 3 TDs for Charles Frederick.
The Huskies' season has had a VH1-Behind The Music aspect to it, with the humble beginnings (loss to Ohio State), fast ascent (solid wins against Indiana, Idaho and Stanford), fall from grace (losses to UCLA and Nevada), and return to triumph (Oregon State). Yet, just at the point where Washington should be climbing on state to pick up its Grammy, there are still five games left in the season including USC, Oregon, and Washington State.  Like several other teams in the conference, they still have a shot at the title if they can win out. The WR tandem of Reggie Williams and Charles Frederick, with Frederick's breakout performance last Saturday has now eclipsed USC's Williams/Colbert combination as the scariest in the conference.

 

Team Logo Washington State (5-1, 2-0 Pac-10) This Week: vs. Oregon State
Last Week:  W, 24-14 at Stanford
Key Stat: Out of 29 trips to the red zone this year, WSU has managed only 10 TDs.
How feeble is WSU's red zone offense? Stanford's had the ball inside the red zone 19 times these year, and even the Cardinal as scored 11 TDs. The Cougars prepared for Saturday's game against Oregon State by racking up 116 yards of penalties against Stanford - both the Cougars and the Beavers are averaging more than 100  yards in penalties. Although WSU's offense struggled, the defense played terrific - out of 18 possessions, they held Stanford to 10 or less yards on 13 of them, including 8 three-and-outs. The pass blocking fared well as Stanford didn't have any sacks during 52 WSU pass attempts. With QB Matt Kegel having a sore left shoulder, how well it heals by Saturday could affect WSU's ability to move the ball.

 

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= GreyBear, Webmaster


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