Two questions that seem to be at the tip of everyone's tongue are: what bowl tie-ins does the Pac-10 have (six) and where's Cal likely to go (with seven wins, Tempe or Las Vegas)? But why take our word for it when you can look at the Pac-10 expanded standings and concoct your own scenarios? And yes, there's one where Cal could end up in the Rose Bowl. (This week's Pac-10 TV viewing guide is also included.)

"> Two questions that seem to be at the tip of everyone's tongue are: what bowl tie-ins does the Pac-10 have (six) and where's Cal likely to go (with seven wins, Tempe or Las Vegas)? But why take our word for it when you can look at the Pac-10 expanded standings and concoct your own scenarios? And yes, there's one where Cal could end up in the Rose Bowl. (This week's Pac-10 TV viewing guide is also included.)

">

Cal's Bowl Scenarios

<p class="txt">Two questions that seem to be at the tip of everyone's tongue are: what bowl tie-ins does the Pac-10 have (six) and where's Cal likely to go (with seven wins, Tempe or Las Vegas)? But why take our word for it when you can look at the Pac-10 expanded standings and concoct your own scenarios? And yes, there's one where Cal could end up in the Rose Bowl. (This week's Pac-10 TV viewing guide is also included.)</p>

PAC-10 STANDINGS AND SCHEDULE

Pac-10 Total Home Away Skip

CollegeBCS.com

W L W L W L
Washington State (12) 4 0 7 1 ASU, UCLA USC, Wash. California 116,62,49,42,98,79,51 63
UCLA (24) 4 0 6 2 Oreg. Stan., WSU, USC Oregon State 99,82,66,98,69,67 62,1
USC (3) 3 1 7 1 WSU, UCLA, OSU Ariz. Oregon 34,80,55,67,79,63,66 69
Oregon State (51) 2 2 5 3 Ariz., Stan., USC Oreg. UCLA IAA,111,33,67,69 56,66,12
Oregon (42) 2 2 5 3 Cal, OSU Wash., UCLA USC 93,65,98,17,79 12,22,67
Washington (66) 2 2 4 4 Oreg.,WSU Ariz., Cal Arizona State 100,116,79,51 4,24,65,3
California (69) 2 2 4 5 Wash. ASU, Oreg., Stan. Washington State 47,99,3,98 39,35,22,51,24
Arizona State (67) 1 3 4 4 Cal, Ariz. Stan., WSU Washington IAA,92,42,101 13,51,3,24
Stanford (79) 0 4 2 4 ASU, Cal, Notre Dame, UCLA OSU Arizona 102,80 66,3,12,42
Arizona (98) 0 4 1 7 Wash., USC OSU, ASU Stanford 109 16,42,21,9,12,24,69

This week's team rankings come courtesy of CollegeBCS.com. If the site name sounds familiar, it's because it's run by Jerry Palm who operates the popular CollegeRPI.com.  Palm developed the PSR rating which is one of the formulas that does not take into consideration margin of victory. A few things standout: 1) both California and Arizona State have only lost to teams in the top 51, b) UCLA hasn't beaten anyone in the top 65, Washington State hasn't beaten anyone in the top 40, and USC's only beaten one team in the top 50; and c) Cal was the worst team that Arizona has lost to this year.

One of the problems with a system like this is that the Pac-10 teams will be beating up on each other and with most of the teams being between 40 and 70, it's going to be hard for any team to boost its numbers all that much - especially if they have to leapfrong the Big 10 and SEC which have several teams in the top 40. As was the case when we looked at the Sagarin numbers last week, both Washington State and USC are showing that teams can climb fairly high in the ratings without playing an especially challenging schedule.

 

Pac-10 Bowl Alignments and Projections

STANDING DATE BOWL LOCATION   Projections as of 10/28
BCS/at-large January 1/2/4 Orange/Fiesta/Sugar      
Pac-10 #1 January 1 Rose Bowl Pasadena, CA   USC
Pac-10 #2 December 30 Holiday Bowl San Diego, CA   Washington State
Pac-10 #3 December 31 Sun Bowl El Paso, TX   UCLA
Pac-10 #4 December 26 Insight Bowl Tempe, AZ   California
Pac-10 #5 December 24 Las Vegas Bowl Las Vegas, NV   Oregon State
Pac-10 #6 December 30 Silicon Valley Bowl San Jose, CA   Oregon or Arizona State
At-Large December 31 Humanitarian Bowl Boise, ID    

 

Cal's Bowl Scenarios

Finishing 4-0 or 3-1 means that the Bears will be eligible for a bowl game. With the Pac-10 having six bowl berths, if Cal becomes bowl eligible, there's no chance that they'll be excluded from postseason play. Cal does have a slim chance of making it to the Rose Bowl - they'd need to be tied for the conference title with USC, and have Washington State and UCLA both lose at least three of their last four conference games. It's a doubtful scenario, but not impossible.
Rose There's a remote chance that Cal could win the Pac-10. Right now, the best scenario would be for Cal and USC to be deadlocked for the Pac-10 lead with two losses each. For this to happen, besides Cal winning out, this would require: a) Oregon to beat Oregon State,  b) UCLA to lose to Oregon, WSU and USC, and c) Washington State to lose to ASU, USC and Washington, and d) Oregon State to beat USC. There are also some situations where Cal would emerge on top in the event of a multiple-team tie atop the Pac-10 - but right now, it's far too early and far too confusing to explain in any degree of detail.
Holiday, Sun, Insight For the Bears to become bowl eligible, they'll have to finish conference play at either 6-2 or 5-3.  It's unlikely that the Bears would finish in the #5 or #6 slot if they finished with a 5-3 conference record. Last year, four teams were tied for fourth place with 4-4 conference records. Note that the tiebreaker only comes into place as far as the Rose Bowl is concerned. After the Rose Bowl gets its team, it's left to the bowl committees to choose a team among the teams that are tied. If, for example, Cal and Oregon State end up tied for fourth, the fact that the Beavers clobbered the Bears won't matter nearly as much as which team can bring more fans and sell more tickets.
Las Vegas, Silicon Valley It's unlikely that Cal would wind up in either of these bowls - but trades can happen. If for some reason, Cal winds up slotted for the Insight Bowl and Arizona State ends up slotted for the Silicon Valley Bowl - don't be surprised if discussions take place which will enable each team to play closer to its fan base.  The Silicon Valley Bowl has been suffering from horrible attendance in recent years and badly needs a local team to bolster the gate.

 

PAC 10 FOOTBALL TV VIEWING GUIDE - Weekend of November 1, 2003

CAL at Arizona State No Live TV
No delayed TV as of 10/28
UCLA at Stanford 12:30 p.m. Fox Sports Arizona, Fox Sports Bay Area, Fox Sports Northwest, Fox Sports West
2:00 a.m. Sunday (replay) Fox Sports West
1:30 a.m. Monday (replay) Fox Sports West2
Washington St. at USC 4:00 p.m. ABC
10:00 a.m. Sunday (replay) Fox Sports Digital Pacific, Fox Sports Northwest
Oregon at Washington 7:00 p.m. TBS
4:00 p.m. Sunday (replay) Fox Sports Digital Pacific, Fox Sports Northwest
Arizona at Oregon State No Live TV
1:00 p.m. Sunday (replay) Fox Sports Digital Pacific, Fox Sports Arizona, Fox Sports Northwest,
11:00 a.m. Monday Fox Sports Arizona

 

============

CyberBear Staff Writers regularly visit the CyberBears Insider board, and are available to discuss questions you may have about this article or about Cal Athletics.

= GreyBear, Webmaster


BearTerritory.net Top Stories

\r\n","mobileBody":"

This week's team rankings come courtesy of CollegeBCS.com. If the site name sounds familiar, it's because it's run by Jerry Palm who operates the popular CollegeRPI.com.  Palm developed the PSR rating which is one of the formulas that does not take into consideration margin of victory. A few things standout: 1) both California and Arizona State have only lost to teams in the top 51, b) UCLA hasn't beaten anyone in the top 65, Washington State hasn't beaten anyone in the top 40, and USC's only beaten one team in the top 50; and c) Cal was the worst team that Arizona has lost to this year.

One of the problems with a system like this is that the Pac-10 teams will be beating up on each other and with most of the teams being between 40 and 70, it's going to be hard for any team to boost its numbers all that much - especially if they have to leapfrong the Big 10 and SEC which have several teams in the top 40. As was the case when we looked at the Sagarin numbers last week, both Washington State and USC are showing that teams can climb fairly high in the ratings without playing an especially challenging schedule.

 

 

 

 

============

CyberBear Staff Writers regularly visit the CyberBears Insider board, and are available to discuss questions you may have about this article or about Cal Athletics.

= GreyBear, Webmaster

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