While Dominic McGuire's bout with the flu deprived Cal of much of its off-the-bench scoring punch, it's hard to say how much of an effect he would have had in Cal's 78-60 loss to Colorado in Boulder on Saturday.

"> While Dominic McGuire's bout with the flu deprived Cal of much of its off-the-bench scoring punch, it's hard to say how much of an effect he would have had in Cal's 78-60 loss to Colorado in Boulder on Saturday.

">

Fun With Numbers - Cal vs. Colorado

<p class="txt">While Dominic McGuire's bout with the flu deprived Cal of much of its off-the-bench scoring punch, it's hard to say how much of an effect he would have had in Cal's 78-60 loss to Colorado in Boulder on Saturday. </p>

Player Min +Pts -Pts Diff
Rodrique Benson 4 6 6 0
David Paris 5 6 6 0
Conor Famulener 4 4 6 -2
Gabriel Hughes 3 3 5 -2
Martin Smith 10 16 18 -2
A.J. Diggs 22 31 38 -7
Richard Midgley 29 43 55 -12
Marquise Kately 34 56 69 -13
Amit Tamir 27 45 59 -14
Leon Powe 34 52 70 -18
Ayinde Ubaka 29 38 58 -20

Comment:  Aside from the challenge of tracking a game via the radio, intermittent outages caused some disruptions in the broadcast. Trying to listen to the Colorado broadcast over the Internet helped a little bit, although there was a brief delay which caused some confusion. The Buffalo broadcasters weren't too concerned with giving the names of Cal substitutions, but fortunately the PA system there was loud enough that you could hear them in the background.  The Contribution Evaluation chart makes a return this week.

There weren't any numbers that were especially encouraging - all five starters finished at the bottom of the plus/minus chart. Due partly to Dominic McGuire missing the game because of the flu, his minutes went to David Paris, Rodrique Benson, and Martin Smith.  None of the three turned out to be a major liability.  McGuire's difference was significant in that he's the only member of the bench who's capable of presenting a consistent scoring threat. Without him - and playing a game at high altitude which generally forces coaches to substitute more - the Bears were going to have to play extremely efficiently if they were going to have a good chance to win. Instead, Colorado took advantage of 10 of 20 shooting from the three-point line.

The Bears trailed for the last 35 minutes of the game. In the first half, they trailed by 10, narrowed the deficit to two with 2:17 left, but the Buffaloes stretched the halftime lead to seven. In the second half, Colorado opened with a 10-4 run, increasing their advantage to 13 at the 15:58 mark - with the lead going between 12 and 21 the rest of the way.

 

First vs. Second Half (minimum 2 minutes)

First Half Top - David Paris, 6-6, 0
Second Half Top - Rod Benson, 6-6, 0

First Half Bottom - Ayinde Ubaka, 19-27, -8
Second Half Bottom - Ayinde Ubaka, 19-31 and Leon Powe 26-38, -12


Starting Lineup

Kately, Midgley, Powe, Tamir, Ubaka in 15:24, 25-36, -11
All other combinations in 24:36, 35-43, -8

Comment: The second half lineup opened the second half with a 7-2 run, when Diggs was brought in for Midgley. When Cal trailed 44-42 with 11:20 left, Tamir and Wethers were brought in for Smith and Bond, and the team went on a 9-2 run to take 51-46 lead.

Offensive Efficiency

Player PPM*
Tamir 1.67
Kately 1.64
Smith 1.60
Powe 1.53
Benson 1.50
TEAM 1.50
Midgley 1.48
Diggs 1.41
Ubaka 1.31
Paris 1.20
Famulener 1.00
Hughes 1.00

*Points per minute scored by Cal while player was on the court.

Defensive Efficiency

Player PPM*
Paris 1.20
Benson 1.50
Famulener 1.50
Hughes 1.67
Diggs 1.73
Smith 1.80
Midgley 1.89
TEAM 1.95
Ubaka 2.00
Powe 2.06
Kately 2.07
Tamir 2.19

*Points per minute scored by opponent while player was on the court.

Contribution Evaluation

Player Minutes Expected Actual Difference
Diggs 22 -9.90 -7 +2.90
Smith 10 -4.50 -2 +2.50
Kately 34 -15.30 -13 +2.30
Paris 5 -2.25 0 +2.25
Benson 4 -1.80 0 +1.80
Midgley 29 -13.05 -12 +1.05
Famulener 4 -1.80 -2 -0.20
Hughes 3 -1.35 -2 -0.65
Tamir 27 -12.15 -14 -1.85
Powe 34 -15.30 -18 -2.70
Ubaka 29 -13.05 -20 -6.95

Comment:  The five first-half starters finished in the top five of this table, which hasn't occured all that much. Hughes' numbers were good, even though he didn't play after the game's first five minutes.

Description: This stat measures the significance of a player's contribution to the team's effort. If a team wins by 10 points, and a player plays in half of the team's minutes, his expected contribution would be a +5. For example, when Cal defeated Grambling by 19 points. Brian Wethers played 28 minutes or 70% of the game. If we multiply 70% x +19, Wethers' expected contribution would be a +13.30. But for the game he was a +26, so his net for the game for a +12.70. In a perfect team situation, if everyone contributed equally, the difference column would consist of a row of zeros.

Lineup Breakdown

Lineup TIME + - +/-
Kately, Midgley, Powe, Tamir, Ubaka 15:24 25 36 -11
Diggs, Kately, Midgley, Powe, Tamir 3:01 5 8 -3
Diggs, Kately, Powe, Tamir, Ubaka 2:26 2 5 -3
Diggs, Kately, Midgley, Paris, Powe 2:21 3 0 +3
Diggs, Kately, Powe, Smith, Tamir 2:01 7 4 +3
Diggs, Kately, Paris, Powe, Ubaka 1:49 1 5 -4
Benson, Diggs, Kately, Midgley, Ubaka 1:25 4 0 +4
Diggs, Kately, Powe, Smith, Tamir 1:20 4 3 +1
Famulener, Kately, Midgley, Tamir, Ubaka 1:14 2 3 -1
Kately, Midgley, Paris, Powe, Ubaka 1:09 2 1 +1
Diggs, Famulener, Hughes, Tamir, Ubaka 1:08 0 0 0
Diggs, Famulener, Kately, Tamir, Ubaka 1:07 2 2 0
Diggs, Hughes, Powe, Smith, Ubaka 1:02 0 2 -2
Diggs, Kately, Powe, Smith, Ubaka 1:02 0 2 -2
Benson, Diggs, Kately, Powe, Smith 0:49 2 2 0
Benson, Diggs, Kately, Midgley, Powe 0:42 0 2 -2
Benson, Kately, Midgley, Powe, Ubaka 0:37 0 0 0
Benson, Diggs, Kately, Smith, Ubaka 0:34 0 2 -2
Diggs, Famulener, Kately, Smith, Tamir 0:25 0 1 -1
Diggs, Hughes, Kately, Powe, Smith 0:20 1 0 +1
Diggs, Kately, Midgley, Tamir, Ubaka 0:04 0 0 0
TOTAL 40:00 60 78 -18

============

CyberBear Staff Writers regularly visit the CyberBears Insider board, and are available to discuss questions you may have about this article or about Cal Athletics.

= GreyBear, Webmaster


BearTerritory.net Top Stories

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  Aside from the challenge of tracking a game via the radio, intermittent outages caused some disruptions in the broadcast. Trying to listen to the Colorado broadcast over the Internet helped a little bit, although there was a brief delay which caused some confusion. The Buffalo broadcasters weren't too concerned with giving the names of Cal substitutions, but fortunately the PA system there was loud enough that you could hear them in the background.  The Contribution Evaluation chart makes a return this week.

There weren't any numbers that were especially encouraging - all five starters finished at the bottom of the plus/minus chart. Due partly to Dominic McGuire missing the game because of the flu, his minutes went to David Paris, Rodrique Benson, and Martin Smith.  None of the three turned out to be a major liability.  McGuire's difference was significant in that he's the only member of the bench who's capable of presenting a consistent scoring threat. Without him - and playing a game at high altitude which generally forces coaches to substitute more - the Bears were going to have to play extremely efficiently if they were going to have a good chance to win. Instead, Colorado took advantage of 10 of 20 shooting from the three-point line.

The Bears trailed for the last 35 minutes of the game. In the first half, they trailed by 10, narrowed the deficit to two with 2:17 left, but the Buffaloes stretched the halftime lead to seven. In the second half, Colorado opened with a 10-4 run, increasing their advantage to 13 at the 15:58 mark - with the lead going between 12 and 21 the rest of the way.

 

(minimum 2 minutes)

First Half Top - David Paris, 6-6, 0
Second Half Top - Rod Benson, 6-6, 0

First Half Bottom - Ayinde Ubaka, 19-27, -8
Second Half Bottom - Ayinde Ubaka, 19-31 and Leon Powe 26-38, -12
Kately, Midgley, Powe, Tamir, Ubaka in 15:24, 25-36, -11
All other combinations in 24:36, 35-43, -8

The second half lineup opened the second half with a 7-2 run, when Diggs was brought in for Midgley. When Cal trailed 44-42 with 11:20 left, Tamir and Wethers were brought in for Smith and Bond, and the team went on a 9-2 run to take 51-46 lead.

*Points per minute scored by Cal while player was on the court.

*Points per minute scored by opponent while player was on the court.

:  The five first-half starters finished in the top five of this table, which hasn't occured all that much. Hughes' numbers were good, even though he didn't play after the game's first five minutes.

This stat measures the significance of a player's contribution to the team's effort. If a team wins by 10 points, and a player plays in half of the team's minutes, his expected contribution would be a +5. For example, when Cal defeated Grambling by 19 points. Brian Wethers played 28 minutes or 70% of the game. If we multiply 70% x +19, Wethers' expected contribution would be a +13.30. But for the game he was a +26, so his net for the game for a +12.70. In a perfect team situation, if everyone contributed equally, the difference column would consist of a row of zeros.

Lineup Breakdown

============

CyberBear Staff Writers regularly visit the CyberBears Insider board, and are available to discuss questions you may have about this article or about Cal Athletics.

= GreyBear, Webmaster

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