Cal Ranked Second in Nation?

<p class=txt>That's what Sagarin of USA Today says. Second in the nation. </p>

Sagarin publishes two sets of data that can be used to predict the outcome of upcoming games. He uses statistical techniques to analyze hard data like wins, losses and margins of victory, and ignores popular (and sometimes political) opinion. Sagarin's raw data are available here.

One set of data, the one Sagarin consideres to be more "politically correct", ignores margins of victory and uses only wins and losses. The second, labled by Sagarin as the "Best Predictor", now has Cal ranked second in the nation, just behind number 1, USC. Cal's rank is a direct result of the substantial margins of victories in wins to date and could suffer substantially given more modest results in future games.

Cal's score is 90.49, USC 93.82, and the difference is the "statistically most likely" margin of victory for the USC Trojans if the game were played today on a neutral field. Throw in the 3.31 national average home-field-advantage, and you get Sagain's prediction for Saturday's game: USC by 7. Third place is occupied by Georgia with 90.07 points, Purdue is fourth at 89.17.

Stanford currently ranks 10 points behind Cal. Add Cal's home field advantage and the currect forecast for The Big Game this year is Cal by 13. Given current data, Sagarin's statistics forecast that Cal will win all remaining regular season games this year - except USC.

Complete Sagarin rankings, as they apply to Cal and its upcoming opponents both home and away, are published regularly at the game list used in "BearPlay" - a game-prediction contest running at this website. The game and the data can be accesssed here.


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Sagarin publishes two sets of data that can be used to predict the outcome of upcoming games. He uses statistical techniques to analyze hard data like wins, losses and margins of victory, and ignores popular (and sometimes political) opinion. Sagarin's raw data are available here.

One set of data, the one Sagarin consideres to be more "politically correct", ignores margins of victory and uses only wins and losses. The second, labled by Sagarin as the "Best Predictor", now has Cal ranked second in the nation, just behind number 1, USC. Cal's rank is a direct result of the substantial margins of victories in wins to date and could suffer substantially given more modest results in future games.

Cal's score is 90.49, USC 93.82, and the difference is the "statistically most likely" margin of victory for the USC Trojans if the game were played today on a neutral field. Throw in the 3.31 national average home-field-advantage, and you get Sagain's prediction for Saturday's game: USC by 7. Third place is occupied by Georgia with 90.07 points, Purdue is fourth at 89.17.

Stanford currently ranks 10 points behind Cal. Add Cal's home field advantage and the currect forecast for The Big Game this year is Cal by 13. Given current data, Sagarin's statistics forecast that Cal will win all remaining regular season games this year - except USC.

Complete Sagarin rankings, as they apply to Cal and its upcoming opponents both home and away, are published regularly at the game list used in "BearPlay" - a game-prediction contest running at this website. The game and the data can be accesssed here.

©Copyright 2004, TheBearInsider.com and The Insiders. All rights reserved.

If you haven't done so already, subscribe to The Bear Insider so you can participate in this online community and get access to the members-only content from the nation-wide Insider's network.

Bear Insider staff writers visit the Insider discussion board regularly, and are available to discuss questions you may have about this article and Cal Athletics.

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