Cal vs ASU: Forecast

<p class=txt>Last week Cal traveled to Arizona to play the Wildcats, and turned a potential mid-season land mine into another dominant victory. This week the Bears face their most important and toughest contest of the year. Tougher than Southern Cal? Absolutely. </p>

Opponents: Cal Bears Arizona State Sun Devils
Records: 5-1 (3-1 Pac-10) 6-1 (3-1 Pac-10)
Last Game: 10/23 Beat Arizona 38-0 10/23 Beat UCLA 48-42
Head Coach: Jeff Tedford (3rd Year)
(18-12 at Cal)
Dick Koetter(4th year)
(23-21 at Arizona State)
Last Meeting: November 1, 2003—Sun Devil Stadium, Cal 51-Arizona St.23
Series Record: Arizona State leads 13-11  
Official Websites: www.calbears.com www.devilsdigest.com
Scout.com www.bearinsider.com www.thesundevils.com

Against the Trojans, Cal had nothing to lose. Witness the accolades they received for losing by six points. Against the Sun Devils there is no such luxury. Cal must win, and perhaps must win convincingly to keep the Bear Bowl Express on track. To do that Coach Tedford and his charges will have to overcome some adversities.

Overview

Cal has had to deal with a lot this week. Receiver Jonathan Makonnen suffered a liver contusion in the Arizona game that will keep him sidelined for two weeks or more. Offensive coordinator George Cortez had two rounds of eye surgery and will be absent from the game. Offensive lineman Jonathan Giesel is unlikely to play due to a high ankle sprain.

In Cortez' absence, Tedford curtailed his media availability because of the increased work load he and his staff have taken on.

There are no plans to move one of the other coaches into the press box to take Cortez’ spot.

“It (the alignment of coaches during the game) doesn't change at all,” said Tedford. “We'll just have an empty headset up there (in the press box). We will have our GA (graduate assistant) up there who talks and watches some fronts. That's the one thing you really miss when coach Cortez is not there - the communication from the box on what happens, say, if we can't see (a certain play from the sideline), what happened here or there.”

Along with their own concerns, the Bears will face a fired up Arizona State squad. The Sun Devils want to prove they belong in the upper echelon of the conference, and to avenge the 51-23 rout Cal laid on them at Tempe last season.

“We had no heart in that game,” said ASU coach Dick Koetter. “That was the most embarrassing game of my career.”

So Cal will not have the luxury of paying against an uninspired squad Saturday night. The Bears have five relatively easy wins and one close loss. It will be important for team leaders to play above the level that has worked for the first half of this year - to get the home stretch of the season off on the right foot.

When Arizona St. has the ball

The Sun Devil running attack is a mystery, even to Coach Koetter. Asked if he knew who his starting running back would be, Koetter’s answer was simple.

“No.”

Look for Akim Hill to carry most of the load for ASU. Hill was suspended for the UCLA game for reasons Koetter would not disclose, and Hill was forbidden from press contact. Hill suffered a broken arm against Iowa on September 18 and has worn a cast since.

The Sun Devils are thin at tailback having lost Loren Wade to suspension and Randy Hill to injury. Against UCLA, converted wide receiver Rudy Burgess led a “running back by committee” attack to an anemic 116 yards against a weak Bruin run defense.

It is not, however, the running attack that wins games for ASU. Senior quarterback Andrew Walter decided to stay in Tempe instead of going to the NFL last year and has something to prove.

“ He’s more of a gunslinger (than Cal QB Aaron Rodgers),” said Koetter.

The Sun Devils like to get the ball down the field and have talented receivers. The duo of Derek Hagan and Terry Richardson is averaging 15 yards per catch and finding the end zone regularly. Walter has completed 55% of his passes in this Pac-10 season compared to Rodgers at 74%, and has given up 7 Pac-10 interceptions compared to Cal at 4. Nevertheless, ASU has the #2 ranked pass offense in the Pac-10 (as measured in yards gained), outranking Cal(#5 in the Pac-10)./p>

The answer for the Bears is simple, Pass Rush, Pass Rush, Pass Rush.

If given time Hagan, Richardson, and the other Sun Devil receivers will get open, and Walter will find them. If Cal cannot get a good push from its front seven, Defensive Coordinator Bob Gregory will have to add safeties and corners to the pass rush package, because if Walter is not pressured all the coverage in the world will not solve the problem.

The Bears can take comfort in the development of their corners,particularly Harrison Smith. Gregory can feel better about leaving them in single coverage if the need arises.

When the Bears have the ball

There is no reason to think the Bears will have trouble moving the ball. ASU gave up a combined 93 points to USC and UCLA, and according to Koetter, Cal’s offense “may be better than both of them." Cal has the #1 offensein the Pac-10; the ASU total defense ranks 7th, better only than WSU, UW, and UCLA.

Cal’s balanced offense will create opportunities. Cal's strong rushing offense, #1 in the conference, goes up against an ASU rush defense that is just barely better than Arizona's - a defense that Cal dominated last week.

One question mark is at receiver. Cal will look for Robert Jordan (#11) to continue to play as well as he did against Arizona, where he had five catches, and for Noah Smith (#1) and Sam DeSa (#86)to take up the slack left by the injuries to Makonnen and Chase Lyman. Geoff McArthur will have to continue his resurgence as “the guy” in the passing game.

Jonathan Giesel's replacement at left guard, Erik Robertson (#75), played well against Arizona. ERob's continued performance at that level will be crucial. Keep an eye on Cal's pass protection for Aaron Rodgers from that left side of the O-line.

Crunch Time:

Cal has the best Pac-10 record for red-zone defense, allowing scores just 64% of the time.

Special teams:

Arizona State kicker Jesse Ainsworth is 8/9 inside forty yards and has kicked a 48-yarder. Cal’s offensive success has left their kicking game in a condition that can be best described as "untested.”


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If you haven't done so already, subscribe to The Bear Insider so you can participate in this online community and get access to the members-only content from the nation-wide Insider's network.

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Against the Trojans, Cal had nothing to lose. Witness the accolades they received for losing by six points. Against the Sun Devils there is no such luxury. Cal must win, and perhaps must win convincingly to keep the Bear Bowl Express on track. To do that Coach Tedford and his charges will have to overcome some adversities.

Overview

Cal has had to deal with a lot this week. Receiver Jonathan Makonnen suffered a liver contusion in the Arizona game that will keep him sidelined for two weeks or more. Offensive coordinator George Cortez had two rounds of eye surgery and will be absent from the game. Offensive lineman Jonathan Giesel is unlikely to play due to a high ankle sprain.

In Cortez' absence, Tedford curtailed his media availability because of the increased work load he and his staff have taken on.

There are no plans to move one of the other coaches into the press box to take Cortez’ spot.

“It (the alignment of coaches during the game) doesn't change at all,” said Tedford. “We'll just have an empty headset up there (in the press box). We will have our GA (graduate assistant) up there who talks and watches some fronts. That's the one thing you really miss when coach Cortez is not there - the communication from the box on what happens, say, if we can't see (a certain play from the sideline), what happened here or there.”

Along with their own concerns, the Bears will face a fired up Arizona State squad. The Sun Devils want to prove they belong in the upper echelon of the conference, and to avenge the 51-23 rout Cal laid on them at Tempe last season.

“We had no heart in that game,” said ASU coach Dick Koetter. “That was the most embarrassing game of my career.”

So Cal will not have the luxury of paying against an uninspired squad Saturday night. The Bears have five relatively easy wins and one close loss. It will be important for team leaders to play above the level that has worked for the first half of this year - to get the home stretch of the season off on the right foot.

When Arizona St. has the ball

The Sun Devil running attack is a mystery, even to Coach Koetter. Asked if he knew who his starting running back would be, Koetter’s answer was simple.

“No.”

Look for Akim Hill to carry most of the load for ASU. Hill was suspended for the UCLA game for reasons Koetter would not disclose, and Hill was forbidden from press contact. Hill suffered a broken arm against Iowa on September 18 and has worn a cast since.

The Sun Devils are thin at tailback having lost Loren Wade to suspension and Randy Hill to injury. Against UCLA, converted wide receiver Rudy Burgess led a “running back by committee” attack to an anemic 116 yards against a weak Bruin run defense.

It is not, however, the running attack that wins games for ASU. Senior quarterback Andrew Walter decided to stay in Tempe instead of going to the NFL last year and has something to prove.

“ He’s more of a gunslinger (than Cal QB Aaron Rodgers),” said Koetter.

The Sun Devils like to get the ball down the field and have talented receivers. The duo of Derek Hagan and Terry Richardson is averaging 15 yards per catch and finding the end zone regularly. Walter has completed 55% of his passes in this Pac-10 season compared to Rodgers at 74%, and has given up 7 Pac-10 interceptions compared to Cal at 4. Nevertheless, ASU has the #2 ranked pass offense in the Pac-10 (as measured in yards gained), outranking Cal(#5 in the Pac-10)./p>

The answer for the Bears is simple, Pass Rush, Pass Rush, Pass Rush.

If given time Hagan, Richardson, and the other Sun Devil receivers will get open, and Walter will find them. If Cal cannot get a good push from its front seven, Defensive Coordinator Bob Gregory will have to add safeties and corners to the pass rush package, because if Walter is not pressured all the coverage in the world will not solve the problem.

The Bears can take comfort in the development of their corners,particularly Harrison Smith. Gregory can feel better about leaving them in single coverage if the need arises.

When the Bears have the ball

There is no reason to think the Bears will have trouble moving the ball. ASU gave up a combined 93 points to USC and UCLA, and according to Koetter, Cal’s offense “may be better than both of them." Cal has the #1 offensein the Pac-10; the ASU total defense ranks 7th, better only than WSU, UW, and UCLA.

Cal’s balanced offense will create opportunities. Cal's strong rushing offense, #1 in the conference, goes up against an ASU rush defense that is just barely better than Arizona's - a defense that Cal dominated last week.

One question mark is at receiver. Cal will look for Robert Jordan (#11) to continue to play as well as he did against Arizona, where he had five catches, and for Noah Smith (#1) and Sam DeSa (#86)to take up the slack left by the injuries to Makonnen and Chase Lyman. Geoff McArthur will have to continue his resurgence as “the guy” in the passing game.

Jonathan Giesel's replacement at left guard, Erik Robertson (#75), played well against Arizona. ERob's continued performance at that level will be crucial. Keep an eye on Cal's pass protection for Aaron Rodgers from that left side of the O-line.

Crunch Time:

Cal has the best Pac-10 record for red-zone defense, allowing scores just 64% of the time.

Special teams:

Arizona State kicker Jesse Ainsworth is 8/9 inside forty yards and has kicked a 48-yarder. Cal’s offensive success has left their kicking game in a condition that can be best described as "untested.”

©Copyright 2004, TheBearInsider.com and The Insiders. All rights reserved.

If you haven't done so already, subscribe to The Bear Insider so you can participate in this online community and get access to the members-only content from the nation-wide Insider's network.

Bear Insider staff writers visit the Insider discussion board regularly, and are available to discuss questions you may have about this article and Cal Athletics.

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