Fun With Numbers - Cal vs. St. Mary's (BB)

<p>The basketball version of Fun With Numbers looks at the plus/minus for each Cal player, how the team is affected by its most efficient player performance that game, a contribution evaluation chart, and a point distribution chart. For the first two games of this season, the basketball version of Fun With Numbers is presented compliments of The Bear Insider. To read it regularly, sign up for a subscription. </p>

Player Min +Pts -Pts Diff
Rodrique Benson 10 19 17 +2
Marquise Kately 36 52 53 -1
Kevin Langford 3 2 4 -2
David Paris 12 7 10 -3
Richard Midgley 35 49 54 -5
Dominic McGuire 32 47 52 -5
Eric Vierniesel 14 16 21 -5
DeVon Hardin 14 14 20 -6
Martin Smith 10 9 17 -8
Ayinde Ubaka 34 45 57 -12

Comment:   Friday's game was a rough night for the Bears - they struggled considerably in the first half, trailing 24-10 at the 4:32 mark in the first half - with 10 points in 15:28 ranking among one of Cal's biggest offensive droughts in Haas Pavilion history. While the Bears did claw back and narrow the deficit to 3, at 35-32 with 13:03 left, the pesky Gaels were able to keep the Bears at bay.  For the second consecutive game, Rod Benson found himself in early foul trouble, picking up his 2nd foul with 17:23 left in the first half. The Bears replaced him with Paris and Hardin in the first half - neither of which helped much at first as the Bears only managed six points in the next 13 minutes.  In the second half, after Benson got into foul trouble, the Bears varied their lineups considerably, going smaller for much of the latter part of the second half - at times going with a Ubaka/Midgley/Smith/McGuire/Kately lineup, sometimes using Vierniesel in place of Smith....One of the Bears' best runs in the game came during the second half, when Smith replaced Ubaka and the team went on a 5-0 run to make the score 35-32.

First vs. Second Half (minimum 2 minutes)

First Half Top - Kevin Langford - 2-4, -2
Second Half Top - Rod Benson - 15-11, +4

First Half Bottom - Ayinde Ubaka and Dominic McGuire - 18-25, -7
Second Half Bottom - Ayinde Ubaka - 27-32, -5

Difference Makers


Rod Benson in 10:04 - 19-17,+2
Without Benson in 29:56 - 33-44, -11

Marquise Kately in 35:26 - 52-53, -1
Without Kately in 4:34 - 0-8, -8

Starting Lineup

Ubaka, Midgley, Kately, McGuire and Benson in 8:44 - 17-16, +1
All other combinations in 31:16 - 35-45, -10

Offensive Efficiency

Player PPM*
Benson 1.90
McGuire 1.47
Kately 1.44
Midgley 1.40
Ubaka 1.32
TEAM 1.30
Vierniesel 1.14
Hardin 1.00
Smith 0.90
Langford 0.67
Paris 0.58

*Points per minute scored by Cal while player was on the court.

Defensive Efficiency

Player PPM*
Paris 0.83
Langford 1.33
Hardin 1.43
Kately 1.47
Vierniesel 1.50
TEAM 1.53
Midgley 1.54
McGuire 1.63
Ubaka 1.67
Smith 1.70
Benson 1.70

*Points per minute scored by opponent while player was on the court.

Contribution Evaluation

Player Minutes Expected Actual Difference
Kately 36 -8.10 -1 +7.10
Benson 10 -2.25 +2 +4.25
Midgley 35 -7.88 -5 +2.88
McGuire 32 -7.20 -5 +2.20
Paris 12 -2.70 -3 -0.30
Langford 3 -0.67 -2 -1.33
Vierniesel 14 -3.15 -5 -1.85
Hardin 14 -3.15 -6 -2.85
Ubaka 34 -7.65 -12 -4.35
Smith 10 -2.25 -8 -5.75

Note:  Four of the team's five top peformers were starters - with a dropoff coming from most of the bench players. Even though Kately was a -1 for the game, his impact on the team's play was the most significant as it went -8 in the four minutes that he didn't play.

Description: This stat measures the significance of a player's contribution to the team's effort. If a team wins by 10 points, and a player plays in half of the team's minutes, his expected contribution would be a +5. For example, when Cal defeated Grambling by 19 points. Brian Wethers played 28 minutes or 70% of the game. If we multiply 70% x +19, Wethers' expected contribution would be a +13.30. But for the game he was a +26, so his net for the game for a +12.70. In a perfect team situation, if everyone contributed equally, the difference column would consist of a row of zeros.

Point Distribution Chart

  TP 2pt 3pt FT 2pt% 3pt% FT%
Marquise Kately 24 20 0 4 83.3% 0 16.7%
Richard Midgley 13 6 3 4 46.1% 23.1% 30.8%
Ayinde Ubaka 10 4 6 0 40.0% 60.0% 0
Rod Benson 2 2 0 0 100% 0 0
David Paris 2 0 0 0 100% 0 0
Martin Smith 1 0 0 0 0 100% 0
Dominic McGuire 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eric Vierniesel 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DeVon Hardin 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kevin Langford 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cal 52 34 9 9 65.4% 17.4% 17.3%
St. Mary's 61 36 3 22 59.0% 4.9% 36.1%
TP - total points; 2pt. - points scored on 2 pt. field goals; 3pt. - points scored on 3 pt. field goals; FT - points scored on free throws; 2pt% - % of points scored on 2 pt field goals, 3pt - % of points scored on 3 pt. field goals, FT% - % of points scored on free throws; LYFT - last year's % of points scored on free throws.

Lineup Breakdown

Time + - Difference
Ubaka Midgley Kately McGuire Benson 8:44 17 16 +1
Ubaka Midgley Kately McGuire Harden 5:22 11 7 +4
Ubaka Midgley Kately McGuire Paris 5:18 2 10 -8
Ubaka Midgley Kately McGuire Smith 2:55 4 10 -6
Ubaka Midgley Kately McGuire Vierniesel 2:05 8 2 +6
Ubaka Smith Vierniesel Hardin Paris 1:56 0 0 0
Vierniesel Midgley Kately Langford Paris 1:46 0 0 0
Ubaka Midgley Kately Vierniesel Hardin 1:39 0 5 -5
Smith Midgley Kately Vierniesel Paris 1:27 3 0 +3
Ubaka Vierniesel Kately McGuire Hardin 0:59 1 0 +1
Vierniesel Midgley Smith Langford Hardin 0:54 0 0 0
Ubaka Smith Vierniesel McGuire Hardin 0:53 0 4 -4
Smith Midgley Vierniesel Langford Hardin 0:28 0 4 -4
Smith Midgley Vierniesel Hardin Paris 0:23 0 0 0
Ubaka Vierniesel Kately McGuire Benson 0:23 0 0 0
Smith Midgley Kately McGuire Vierniesel 0:21 2 0 +2
Ubaka Smith Kately McGuire Vierniesel 0:21 0 2 -2
Vierniesel Midgley Kately Langford Hardin 0:18 2 0 +2
Ubaka Smith Kately McGuire Benson 0:08 2 1 +1
TOTAL 40:00 52 61 -2

Note:   The Ubaka/Midgley/Kately/McGuire/Vierniesel lineup that went for +6 in 2:05 was part of an offense for defense switch where Midgley was replaced with Smith and in one case Vierniesel was replaced by Benson.  Cal's starting lineup did well during the brief minutes that they were in the game together, going +1 in 8:44, but its ability to stay intact was affected by Benson's foul trouble...The Bears tried all kinds of lineups in the second half - sometimes going small, with McGuire being the tallest player in the game and Vierniesel and Kately playing the two forwards.


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   Friday's game was a rough night for the Bears - they struggled considerably in the first half, trailing 24-10 at the 4:32 mark in the first half - with 10 points in 15:28 ranking among one of Cal's biggest offensive droughts in Haas Pavilion history. While the Bears did claw back and narrow the deficit to 3, at 35-32 with 13:03 left, the pesky Gaels were able to keep the Bears at bay.  For the second consecutive game, Rod Benson found himself in early foul trouble, picking up his 2nd foul with 17:23 left in the first half. The Bears replaced him with Paris and Hardin in the first half - neither of which helped much at first as the Bears only managed six points in the next 13 minutes.  In the second half, after Benson got into foul trouble, the Bears varied their lineups considerably, going smaller for much of the latter part of the second half - at times going with a Ubaka/Midgley/Smith/McGuire/Kately lineup, sometimes using Vierniesel in place of Smith....One of the Bears' best runs in the game came during the second half, when Smith replaced Ubaka and the team went on a 5-0 run to make the score 35-32.

(minimum 2 minutes)

First Half Top - Kevin Langford - 2-4, -2
Second Half Top - Rod Benson - 15-11, +4

First Half Bottom - Ayinde Ubaka and Dominic McGuire - 18-25, -7
Second Half Bottom - Ayinde Ubaka - 27-32, -5


Rod Benson in 10:04 - 19-17,+2
Without Benson in 29:56 - 33-44, -11

Marquise Kately in 35:26 - 52-53, -1
Without Kately in 4:34 - 0-8, -8

Ubaka, Midgley, Kately, McGuire and Benson in 8:44 - 17-16, +1
All other combinations in 31:16 - 35-45, -10

*Points per minute scored by Cal while player was on the court.

*Points per minute scored by opponent while player was on the court.

  Four of the team's five top peformers were starters - with a dropoff coming from most of the bench players. Even though Kately was a -1 for the game, his impact on the team's play was the most significant as it went -8 in the four minutes that he didn't play.

This stat measures the significance of a player's contribution to the team's effort. If a team wins by 10 points, and a player plays in half of the team's minutes, his expected contribution would be a +5. For example, when Cal defeated Grambling by 19 points. Brian Wethers played 28 minutes or 70% of the game. If we multiply 70% x +19, Wethers' expected contribution would be a +13.30. But for the game he was a +26, so his net for the game for a +12.70. In a perfect team situation, if everyone contributed equally, the difference column would consist of a row of zeros.

Lineup Breakdown

   The Ubaka/Midgley/Kately/McGuire/Vierniesel lineup that went for +6 in 2:05 was part of an offense for defense switch where Midgley was replaced with Smith and in one case Vierniesel was replaced by Benson.  Cal's starting lineup did well during the brief minutes that they were in the game together, going +1 in 8:44, but its ability to stay intact was affected by Benson's foul trouble...The Bears tried all kinds of lineups in the second half - sometimes going small, with McGuire being the tallest player in the game and Vierniesel and Kately playing the two forwards.

©Copyright 2004, TheBearInsider.com and Scout.com. All rights reserved.

If you haven't done so already, subscribe to The Bear Insider so you can participate in this online community and get access to the members-only content from the nationwide Insiders network.

Bear Insider staff writers visit the Insider discussion board regularly, and are available to discuss questions you may have about this article and Cal Athletics.

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