Fun With Numbers - Cal vs. Texas Tech

<p>Aside from a dreadful third quarter where Texas Tech outscored Cal 17-0 and outgained them 262-67, the Bears played the Red Raiders fairly even. Unfortunately, playing the opposition even isn't enough when trailing by two touchdowns. </p>

Game Twelve - December 30, 2004

1 2 3 4 F
Texas Tech (8-4) 7 17 14 7 45
California (10-2) 14 0 3 14 31

 

By Quarter

CAL TEXAS TECH
TOTAL RUN PASS TOTAL RUN PASS
No. Yds. Avg. No. Yds. Avg. No. Yds. Avg. No. Yds. Avg. No. Yds. Avg. No. Yds. Avg.
1 21 151 7.2 12 98 8.2 9 53 5.9 17 74 4.4 4 10 2.5 13 64 4.9
2 19 67 3.5 6 26 4.5 13 41 3.1 25 262 10.5 3 7 2.3 22 255 11.6
3 23 148 6.4 11 78 7.1 12 70 5.8 15 129 8.6 4 24 6.0 11 105 9.5
4 18 117 6.5 4 18 4.5 14 99 7.1 22 103 4.7 6 14 2.3 16 89 5.6
Tot 81 483 5.9 33 220 6.6 48 263 5.5 79 568 7.2 17 55 3.2 62 513 8.3

Note:  The big difference was the lopsided 2nd quarter where Texas Tech outscored Cal 17-0 and outgained the Bears 262-67.  There've been games this season when Cal was able to forge a late 1st half drive to put points in the board, but in its final three possessions, it was able to pass midfield for just two plays - and after each of those plays the Bears suffered losses to get knocked back to its side of the field.

 

By Down

CAL STANFORD
TOTAL RUN PASS TOTAL RUN PASS
No. Yds. Avg. No. Yds. Avg. No. Yds. Avg. No. Yds. Avg. No. Yds. Avg. No. Yds. Avg.
1 39 261 6.6 17 115 6.8 22 146 6.6 39 273 7.0 9 22 2.5 30 251 8.4
2 29 184 6.3 14 94 6.7 15 90 6.0 25 172 6.8 4 28 7.0 21 144 6.9
3 13 38 2.9 2 11 5.5 11 27 2.4 15 33 2.2 4 5 1.3 11 118 10.7
4 -- -- -- - -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
2pt -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Tot 81 483 5.9 33 220 6.6 48 263 5.5 79 568 7.2 17 55 3.2 62 513 8.3

Note:  The Bears were able to continually run well on first and second down, gaining 6.8 and 6.7 yards per carry. One area where the Bears struggled was 3rd-down passing, where they were 3-of-8 for 33 yards, with two sacks for -6 yards and one scramble for 0 yards. Of those 11 pass plays, Cal managed only three first downs. By comparison, Texas Tech was 7-of-11 for 118 yards, managing 7 first downs and no sacks or scrambles.

 

Quarterback Analysis

 

 

Succ. % TP FD+TD TP Yds. Avg. Att. Comp. Pct. Yds. FD TD Int. Sacks Scram
Pl. Yds. Pl. Yds.
Aaron Rodgers, CAL 34.0% 47 15 47 268 5.5 42 24 57.1 248 14 1 1 2 -3 4 23
CAL TEAM TOTAL 34.0% 47 15 47 268 5.5 42 24 57.1 248 14 1 1 2 -3 4 23
Sonny Cumbie, TT 39.2% 61 24 61 505 8.3 60 39 65.0 514 21 3 0 1 -9 -- --
TT TEAM TOTAL 39.2% 61 24 61 505 8.3 60 39 65.0 514 21 3 0 1 -9 -- --
Game Note:  Rodgers had an average game by his standards - but his numbers don't fare well in comparison to Texas Tech's.  Cal was unable to have success with its long passing game - managing only one completion longer than 20 yards, that coming on a short pass and run by Arrington for 30 yards. Not surprisingly, Texas Tech's Sonny Cumbie had the best success percentage of any quarterback that Cal has played this year. With a lofty 39%, Cumbie easily exceeds Washington's Casey Paus, who had the previous opponent's high with 30.4%.  For the season, Rodgers' success percentages have been 36.8% (vs. AFA), 45.1% (vs. NMSU), 37.5% (vs. OSU), 41.4% (vs. USC), 32.4% (vs. UCLA), 34.3% (vs. Arizona), 29.4 (vs. ASU) and 42.4% (vs. Ore),  35.5% (vs. Wash), and 28.2% (vs. Stan). Bear opponents' starting QBs numbers have been 23.5% (Carney, AFA), 20.0% (Pierce, NMSU), 15.8% (Anderson, OSU), 20.7% (Leinart, USC), 19.4% (Olson, UCLA), 11.1% (Kovalcheck, Arizona), 25.5% (Walter, ASU), 24.3% (Clemens, Ore), 30.4% (Paus, UW) and 17.5% (Ostrander, S). 
Note:   The Success Percentage attempts to measure a QB's effectiveness by looking at how often a quarterback achieves a successful result (a first down (by passing or running) or touchdown) out of all pass plays attempted. Current QB rating methodology does not include either sacks or scrambles  - this rewards QBs taking sacks instead of throwing incompletions. In addition, QB rating formulas reward the eight-yard pass on 3rd-and-12 (i.e., it's a completion, it's not an interception, and there's an above average yardage gain).  The current formula also overemphasizes touchdowns and penalizes teams that have good short yardage rushing games. The Success Percentage acknowledges everytime a QB is successful in advancing the ball - whether it's a first down or touchdown.    Key: Succ.% - Touchdowns + First Downs/Total Plays, TP - pass attempts + sacks + scrambles, FD - first downs, TD - touchdowns, Yds - Yards, Avg - Average, Att. - Attempts, Comp. - Completions, Pct. - Completion %, Int - Interceptions, Pl. - Plays). 

 

J.J. Arrington

  Att. Yds. Avg. (Heisman Trophy placing)
Barry Sanders, Oklahoma State, 1988 344 2628 7.64 (1st)
Marcus Allen, Southern California, 1981 403 2342 5.81 (1st)
Troy Davis, Iowa State, 1996 402 2185 5.44 (2nd)
LaDanian Tomlinson, Texas Christian, 2000 369 2158 5.85 (3rd)
Mike Rozier, Nebraska, 1983 275 2148 7.81 (1st)
Ricky Williams, Texas, 1998 361 2124 5.88 (1st)
Larry Johnson, Penn State, 2002 271 2087 7.70 (4th)
Byron Hanspard, Texas Tech, 1996 339 2084 6.15 (6th)
Rashaan Salaam, Colorado, 1994 298 2055 6.90 (1st)
J.J. Arrington, California, 2004 289 2018 6.98
Notes:   Arrington ran for 173 yards, despite carrying the ball just once in the fourth quarter.  His season total climbed to 2,018 - 10th all time, bumping Troy Davis' 2,010 yards in 1995. Of the nine players above him, eight were in the top five in Heisman Trophy balloting, the only exception being Byron Hanspard who finished sixth for a Texas Tech team that finished 7-5.  Arrington's 6.98 average is fourth-highest on the list, trailing Rozier, Johnson, and Sanders.

 

Starting Field Position

  Total 1st Half

2nd Half

  Pos. Avg. Yd. Dif. Pos. Avg. Yd. Dif. Pos. Avg. Yd. Dif.
CAL 13 27.7 -- 8 29.3 +33 5 25.4 --
TEXAS TECH 13 28.3 +7 8 25.1 -- 5 33.4 +40
Note:  Neither team had a significant advantage with starting field position. Cal generally had better starting field position, but Texas Tech's numbers were greatly aided by the long interseption return in the second quarter that gave Texas Tech a +78. Of its other 7 first-half possessions, five of the Red Raiders possessions began inside thier 20.   By comparison, seven of Cal's eight first-half possessions began outside of its 20.
Explanation:  Defense and special team TDs are counted as a +100. If the player had been pushed out of bounds at the opponent's 1-yard line, the team would be credited with a +99. It makes more sense to credit the team with a +100 rather than disregard the number because the offense doesn't have to take the field.

 

Scoring Success Inside 30

  Scores Chances % Pts. Max Pts. MaxPts% TD FG FGNG TO Downs Time
CAL 5 5 100% 31 35 88.6% 4 1 0 0 0 0
TTU 6 7 85.7% 38 49 77.6% 5 1 1 0 0 0
Note:  Both teams were very efficient once they managed to get within the opponent's 20. Texas Tech was particularly effective in running the quick slant. Cal scored three times via the run (J.J. Arrington, Marshawn Lynch, Aaron Rodgers) and once via the pass (Rodgers to Cross).
Explanation: Many announcers will refer to how often a team scores inside the red zone - the opponents' 20-yard line. This seems like a soft standard to use. Once a team is on the opponents' 30-yard line, they would have a field goal in the 47- or 48-yard line range, which should be well within the range of most D-I kickers.  The Max Pts.% figures out how many points a team scores out of a maximum 7 points per possession inside the opponent's 30.   A team which scored six field goals out of six possession inside the 30 would have a 100% Score% (6/6) but a MaxPts% of 42.9% (18/42).

 

Passes to Cal Receivers

Incompletion Breakdown

Receiver Att. Comp. Yds.
Jonathan Makonnen 13 8 97

High/overthrown

6
Robert Jordan 12 5 37 Drop 4
David Gray 5 3 15 Broken up 3
Garrett Cross 3 3 27 Behind 2
Marshawn Lynch 2 2 10 Hit while throwing 2
Chris Manderino 2 1 10 WR grabbed by DB no call 1
J.J. Arrington 1 1 30 Miscellaneous 1
Terrell Williams 1 1 19
Hit while thrown 1 0 0
Note:   Aaron Rodgers was 16-of-30 for 149 yards when throwing to WRs, 3-of-3 for 27 yards when throwing to TEs, and 5-of-6 for 69 yards when throwing for RBs.

 

PENALTIES

CAL OFFENSE TEXAS TECH DEFENSE
5 Delay of game 15 Personal foul
5 Face mask
<1 Illegal participation
<1 Illegal participation
CAL DEFENSE TEXAS TECH OFFENSE
15 Pass Interference 5 False start
14 Roughing the passer 5 False start
11 Face mask 5 False start
5 Delay of game
CAL SPECIAL TEAMS TEXAS TECH SPECIAL TEAMS
15 Roughing the kicker 10 Illegal block in the back
Kickoff out of bounds
Note:  For a game with 160 offensive plays, it's almost unfathomable that neither team could be called for any holding calls, but such was the case.  During one sequence, there were was a sequence when helmets were being ripped off of heads, yet the refs didn't see anything to even bother calling offsetting penalties or give warnings - which makes one wonder what they were looking at.

 

Plays longer than 20 yards/Total Plays

  1st Half 2nd Half Total (Season)
California 2/40 0/41 2/81-2.5%
Texas Tech 3/42 3/37 6/79-7.6%
Note:   Coming into this game, California usually had 9% of its plays go for more than 20 yards. Without being able to establish a deep passing attack, the Bears weren't able to make a gain for more than 17 yards during the last three quarters.  J.J. Arrington was involved in both of Cal's 20+ yardage plays, once on a 36-yard run when he ran through a terrific hole opened up by Andrew Cameron and Jonathan Giesel; and another time when he took a short pass from Aaron Rodgers and ran for 30 yards.

 

Where Kickoffs Landed

Kickoff by 1st Half 2nd Half
California 7, 1 2, 12, 1, 51
Texas Tech GL, 6, 12, OB, 2 7, 6, 2
Note:  David Lonie replaced Anthony Binswanger on kickoff duty. While he didn't manage any touchbacks, five of his kickoffs landed inside the Texas Tech 20, with three of them landing on either the Texas Tech 1 or 2.

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