Fun With Numbers - Cal vs. Oregon State

<p>Martin Smith's 7-point, 7-assist, 0-turnover game helped the Bears immeasurably during their 91-66 win over Oregon State at Haas Pavilion on Saturday. Smith's plus/minus number was a +25 in just 24 minutes of play. Rod Benson (22 points), was a +23 in 24 minutes, and Marquise Kately and DeVon Hardin were both +20. That quartet along with Richard Midgley were on the court during a 16-0 run that put the Bears up 29-18 in the first half.</p>

 

Player Min +Pts -Pts Diff
Martin Smith 24 58 33 +25
Rod Benson 24 60 37 +23
Marquise Kately 18 39 19 +20
DeVon Hardin 20 52 32 +20
Richard Midgley 20 49 30 +19
Ayinde Ubaka 26 52 42 +10
Dominic McGuire 24 52 43 +9
Kevin Langford 16 36 29 +7
David Paris 15 32 26 +6
Eric Vierneisel 6 15 12 +3
Christian Prelle 1 2 5 -3
Brett Lowenthal 1 0 3 -3
Jason Gant 1 0 3 -3
Alex Pribble 2 4 8 -4
Steve Panawek 2 4 8 -4

Comment:    After trailing 18-13 at the 13:17 mark of the first half, the Bears went with a lineup of Smith, Midgley, Kately (who'd just replaced McGuire), Hardin (who'd just replaced Paris a short time earlier), and Benson (who'd just replaced Langford). The  Bears then went on a 20-0 run to take a 33-18 lead, and eventually pushed the lead up to 29 before coasting to a 91-66 win.

The lineup of Smith, Midgley, Kately, Hardin and Benson turned out to be the Bears' most effective of the night, as that group went +18 (28-10) in 9:16.

Remarkably, during the 9:06 that Kately played in the first half, the Bears outscored Oregon State 20-2.  During the 10:54 that he sat during the first half, the Bears allowed 25 points.

During the past two games, both Kately and Hardin have had outstanding plus/minus games.  In 42 minutes, Kately's gone a combined +32, while Hardin's gone a combined +34 in 34 minutes of play. Considering that the Bears have been a combined +28 the past two games, it means that they've gone -4 in 38 minutes without Kately, and -6 in 46 minutes without Hardin

First vs. Second Half (minimum 3 minutes)

First Half Top - Marquise Kately - 20-2, +18
Second Half Top - Martin Smith - 32-20, +12

First Half Bottom - Dominic McGuire - 26-27, -1
Second Half Bottom - Richard Midgley - 15-13 and Marquise Kately - 19-17, +2

Difference Makers


With Martin Smith in 24:09 - 58-33, +25
Without Smith in 15:51 - 33-33, 0

With Rod Benson in 24:08 - 60-37, +23
Without Benson in 15:52 - 31-29, +2

First half with Marquise Kately in 9:06 - 20-2, +18
First half wihout Kately in 10:54 - 24-25, -1

Starting Lineup/Other Lineups

(Starting) Ubaka, Smith, McGuire, Benson and Paris in 7:24 - 17-10, +7  
Smith, Midgley, Kately, Benson and Hardin in 9:16 - 28-10, +18
All other combinations in 23:20 - 46-46, 0

Offensive Efficiency

Player PPM*
Hardin 2.60
Benson 2.50
Vierneisel 2.50
Midgley 2.45
Smith 2.41
TEAM 2.27
Langford 2.25
McGuire 2.17
Kately 2.17
Paris 2.13
Ubaka 2.00
Pribble 2.00
Panawek 2.00
Prelle 2.00
Gant 0.00
Lowenthal 0.00

*Points per minute scored by Cal while player was on the court.

Defensive Efficiency

Player PPM*
Kately 1.05
Smith 1.37
Midgley 1.50
Benson 1.54
Hardin 1.60
Ubaka 1.62
TEAM 1.65
Paris 1.73
McGuire 1.79
Langford 1.81
Vierneisel 2.00
Lowenthal 3.00
Gant 3.00
Pribble 4.00
Panawek 4.00
Prelle 5.00

*Points per minute scored by opponent while player was on the court.

Contribution Evaluation

Player Minutes Expected Actual Difference
Smith 24 +15.00 +25 +10.00
Kately 18 +11.25 +20 +8.75
Benson 24 +15.00 +23 +8.00
Hardin 20 +12.50 +20 +7.50
Midgley 20 +12.50 +19 +6.50
Vierneisel 6 +3.76 +3 -0.76
Langford 16 +10.00 +7 -3.00
Paris 15 +9.38 +6 -3.38
Prelle 1 +0.63 -3 -3.63
Lowenthal 1 +0.63 -3 -3.63
Gant 1 +0.63 -3 -3.63
Pribble 2 +1.25 -4 -5.25
Panawek 2 +1.25 -4 -5.25
McGuire 24 +15.00 +9 -6.00
Ubaka 26 +16.25 +10 -6.25

Description: This stat measures the significance of a player's contribution to the team's effort. If a team wins by 10 points, and a player plays in half of the team's minutes, his expected contribution would be a +5. For example, when Cal defeated Grambling by 19 points. Brian Wethers played 28 minutes or 70% of the game. If we multiply 70% x +19, Wethers' expected contribution would be a +13.30. But for the game he was a +26, so his net for the game for a +12.70. In a perfect team situation, if everyone contributed equally, the difference column would consist of a row of zeros.

Scoring Pull

Player Minutes Team Points Scored Player Points Scored %
Pribble 2 4 2 50.0
Benson 24 60 22 36.6
Vierneisel 6 15 5 33.3
McGuire 24 52 11 21.5
Kately 18 39 8 20.5
Midgley 20 49 9 18.3
Ubaka 26 52 9 17.4
Langford 16 36 6 16.7
Hardin 20 52 8 15.4
Paris 15 32 4 12.5
Smith 24 58 7 12.1
Panawek 2 4 0 0
Prelle 1 2 0 0
Gant 1 0 0 0
Lowenthal 1 0 0 0

Description:  This chart measures the amount of a team's points a player scores while he's on the floor.  For example, when David Paris was on the floor, the Bears scored 49 points. Of those 49 points, Paris scored 20, giving him a percentage of 40.8.


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    After trailing 18-13 at the 13:17 mark of the first half, the Bears went with a lineup of Smith, Midgley, Kately (who'd just replaced McGuire), Hardin (who'd just replaced Paris a short time earlier), and Benson (who'd just replaced Langford). The  Bears then went on a 20-0 run to take a 33-18 lead, and eventually pushed the lead up to 29 before coasting to a 91-66 win.

The lineup of Smith, Midgley, Kately, Hardin and Benson turned out to be the Bears' most effective of the night, as that group went +18 (28-10) in 9:16.

Remarkably, during the 9:06 that Kately played in the first half, the Bears outscored Oregon State 20-2.  During the 10:54 that he sat during the first half, the Bears allowed 25 points.

During the past two games, both Kately and Hardin have had outstanding plus/minus games.  In 42 minutes, Kately's gone a combined +32, while Hardin's gone a combined +34 in 34 minutes of play. Considering that the Bears have been a combined +28 the past two games, it means that they've gone -4 in 38 minutes without Kately, and -6 in 46 minutes without Hardin

(minimum 3 minutes)

First Half Top - Marquise Kately - 20-2, +18
Second Half Top - Martin Smith - 32-20, +12

First Half Bottom - Dominic McGuire - 26-27, -1
Second Half Bottom - Richard Midgley - 15-13 and Marquise Kately - 19-17, +2


With Martin Smith in 24:09 - 58-33, +25
Without Smith in 15:51 - 33-33, 0

With Rod Benson in 24:08 - 60-37, +23
Without Benson in 15:52 - 31-29, +2

First half with Marquise Kately in 9:06 - 20-2, +18
First half wihout Kately in 10:54 - 24-25, -1

(Starting) Ubaka, Smith, McGuire, Benson and Paris in 7:24 - 17-10, +7  
Smith, Midgley, Kately, Benson and Hardin in 9:16 - 28-10, +18
All other combinations in 23:20 - 46-46, 0

Offensive Efficiency

*Points per minute scored by Cal while player was on the court.

*Points per minute scored by opponent while player was on the court.

This stat measures the significance of a player's contribution to the team's effort. If a team wins by 10 points, and a player plays in half of the team's minutes, his expected contribution would be a +5. For example, when Cal defeated Grambling by 19 points. Brian Wethers played 28 minutes or 70% of the game. If we multiply 70% x +19, Wethers' expected contribution would be a +13.30. But for the game he was a +26, so his net for the game for a +12.70. In a perfect team situation, if everyone contributed equally, the difference column would consist of a row of zeros.

Scoring Pull

  This chart measures the amount of a team's points a player scores while he's on the floor.  For example, when David Paris was on the floor, the Bears scored 49 points. Of those 49 points, Paris scored 20, giving him a percentage of 40.8.

©Copyright 2005, TheBearInsider.com and Scout.com. All rights reserved.

If you haven't done so already, subscribe to The Bear Insider so you can participate in this online community and get access to the members-only content from the nationwide Insiders network.

Bear Insider staff writers visit the Insider discussion board regularly, and are available to discuss questions you may have about this article and Cal Athletics.

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