Behind The Basketball Team's 3-0 Run

<p>Rod Benson/(Photo by Michael Pimentel/www.goldenbearsports.com)</p> <p>While Cal's three-game winning streak has caught many observers by surprise, Fun With Numbers takes a look at some of the reasons behind the winning streak - major impacts by Rod Benson, DeVon Hardin and Marquise Kately, how different lineups have benefitted the Bears and why having Martin Smith play less than 30 minutes will be a good thing.</p>

Cal's Hero Zero

Back in the 1970s, there were these tiny segments after the Saturday morning cartoons that were supposed to educate and enlighten people. After getting your dose of Fat Albert & The Cosby Kids or Sigmund & The Sea Monsters, there was a three- or four-minute segment entitled "In The News" or "Multiplication Rock" where you'd be introduced to places like Conjunction Junction or have it hammered into your head that a noun is a person, place, or thing. One of the Multiplication Rock songs was "My Hero Zero."

Zero?
Yeah. Zero is a wonderful thing.
In fact, zero is my hero!
How can zero be a hero?. . .

Did you ever stop to think about zero?
Zero is fantastic! Why, without the concept of zero,
we'd never be able to multiply, divide, add, subtract,
or even to count very high.

In the past three games, Benson has scored 51 points, grabbed 30 rebounds, and has gone from being a last-minute addition to a recruiting class a few years ago to become of the Bears' most reliable scorers and rebounders.  Putting him on the wing in a zone defense makes him extremely hard to shoot over - and that defensive alignment has been one of the most stifling that Cal's used this year.  Probably the most lightly-regarded statistic for Benson is his minutes played total - in the past three games, it's been 30, 30, and 24. In years past, going back through the Hughes brothers and Jamal Sampson, the Bears have had difficulty keeping their big men out of foul trouble. For the most part, Benson hasn't had that problem.

  With Rod Benson   Without Rod Benson
  Min Plus Minus +/-   Min Plus Minus +/-
at UCLA 30 44 37 +7   10 20 14 +6
vs. Oregon 30 50 45 +5   10 15 17 -2
vs. Oregon St. 24 60 37 +23   16 31 29 +2
  84 154 119 +35   36 66 60 +6

The emergence of DeVon Hardin

Maybe everytime he dunks the ball or blocks a shot, the Straw Hat Band could launch into "Whip It."

Hardin isn't a classic box score stuffer - in the past three games, he's had 16 points and 13 rebounds in 47 minutes.  Yet on the court, he's made a big difference - especially in the two Oregon games.  Last weekend, the Bears were a +34 during the 34 minutes he played, but a -6 in the 46 minutes that he hasn't.  His offensive rebounding ability and the fact that he can play solid minutes in relief of Paris and sometimes Benson is a big boost for a team that was thought to be vulnerable in the post with the absence of Pac-10 freshman of the year Leon Powe.

 

With DeVon Hardin Without DeVon Hardin
Min Plus Minus +/- Min Plus Minus +/-
at UCLA 13 15 16 -1 27 49 35 +14
vs. Oregon 14 34 20 +14 26 31 42 -11
vs. Oregon St. 20 52 32 +20 20 39 34 +5
47 101 68 +33 73 119 111 +8

The return of Marquise Kately

A few summers ago, anyone who saw Marquise Kately play in the San Francisco Summer Pro-Am League saw a running, jumping, scoring dervish whose future was limitless. Earlier this season, people were wondering not just where the old Kately went, but if they'd ever see him again.  Ever so gradually, he's been rounding back into form - although he's scored just 24 points during the past three games, the Bears have been a +38 with him on the court and just a +3 without him.  Kately's biggest mark has been on the defensive end. With him on the floor, the Bears are surrendering 1.16 points per minute or a 46 point/40 minute pace. Without Kately, the Bears are giving up 1.81 points per minutes or a 72 point/40 minute pace.

With Marquise Kately Without Marquise Kately
Min Plus Minus +/- Min Plus Minus +/-
at UCLA 16 20 14 +6 24 44 37 +7
vs. Oregon 24 46 34 +12 16 19 28 -9
vs. Oregon St. 18 39 19 +20 22 52 47 +5
58 105 67 +38 62 115 112 +3

Martin Smith isn't going to have to play 30 minutes anymore

One of the great stories of the season is the emergence of Martin Smith as a point guard.  From seeing token minutes the past couple of years, Smith has now seen his playing time increase due to injuries to Midgley and Ubaka. While his ability to push the ball upcourt helps Cal's running game, teams have attempted to wear him down by putting man pressure on him as he brings the ball upcourt.  Evidence shows that Smith and the team do become less productive whenever he has to play more than 30 minutes.  Of the 10 games that there's +/- data for, Smith has played more than 30 minutes in half of them. In those five games, Smith was a +5 in the first half, but a -40 in the second half. In Cal's win over Oregon where he played 33 minutes, Smith was a +17 in the first half, but a -13 in the second half. In the five games where he plays less than 30 minutes, he was a +20 in the first half and was a +38 in the second half. Against Oregon State when he played 24 minutes, he was a +13 in the first half and a +12 in the second half. 

With Midgley recovering from his injury and Ubaka now healthy, it won't be necessary for Smith to play more than 30 minutes a game which should be better for both him and the team.

    Total   First half   Second half
  Min Plus Minus +/-   Plus Minus +/-   Plus Minus +/-
at UCLA 34 53 40 +13   31 18 +13   22 22 0
vs. Ore 33 54 50 +4   34 17 +17   20 33 -13
vs. OSU 24 58 33 +25   26 13 +13   32 20 +12
vs. UCR 18 40 26 +14   15 4 +11   25 22 +3
vs. St. Marys 10 9 17 -8   0 8 -8   9 9 0
vs. Hamp 28 52 25 +27   19 9 +10   33 16 +17
vs. Pepp 26 44 44 0   11 17 -6   33 27 +6
vs. Ariz. 32 60 81 -21   30 36 -6   30 45 -15
vs. ASU 39 70 79 -9   33 32 +1   37 47 -10
vs. Stan. 33 42 61 -19   14 31 -17   28 30 -2
>30 min. 5 279 311 -32   142 134 +8   137 177 -40
<30 min. 5 203 145 +58   71 51 +20   132 94 +38

Success with different lineups

Before the season, it wasn't clear how deep the Golden Bears would be.  Yet in the wins against UCLA, Oregon, and Oregon State, Cal has been successful using different matchups - against UCLA, Cal had success with a frontline of McGuire, Paris, and Benson (14-3, +11). Yet against Oregon State, a frontline of Benson, Hardin, and Kately turned out to be the most productive (28-10, +18). During the three-game winning streak, the Bears have gotten help from several different lineups.  Head coach Ben Braun usually employs between 15 to 20 different lineups each game - the one common link in Cal's three most successful lineups in each of the three games has been Martin Smith. Otherwise, seven different players have been involved in the Bears' most productive combinations.   Curiously, the starting lineup hasn't been the most productive lineup in any of the three victories.

Time + - +/-
Vs. Oregon St.
Smith Midgley Kately Hardin Benson 9:16 28 10 +18
*Smith Ubaka McGuire Paris Benson 7:24 17 10 +7
All others 23:20 46 43 +3
vs. Oregon
Smith Ubaka Kately Langford Hardin 2:55 10 1 +9
Vierneisel Ubaka Kately Hardin Benson 2:14 8 2 +6
Smith Kately McGuire Hardin Benson 2:44 9 4 +5
*Smith Ubaka McGuire Paris Benson 12:21 19 19 0
All others 19:46 19 36 -17
vs. UCLA
Smith Ubaka McGuire Paris Benson 5:24 14 3 +11
Smith Pribble Kately McGuire Paris 1:20 4 0 +4
Pribble Ubaka McGuire Langford Paris 0:41 4 1 +3
*Smith Ubaka Vierneisel Langford Paris 3:59 6 6 0
All others 29:36 36 41 -5
*Starting lineup

©Copyright 2005, TheBearInsider.com and Scout.com. All rights reserved.

If you haven't done so already, subscribe to The Bear Insider so you can participate in this online community and get access to the members-only content from the nationwide Insiders network.

Bear Insider staff writers visit the Insider discussion board regularly, and are available to discuss questions you may have about this article and Cal Athletics.


BearTerritory.net Top Stories

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Cal's Hero Zero

Back in the 1970s, there were these tiny segments after the Saturday morning cartoons that were supposed to educate and enlighten people. After getting your dose of Fat Albert & The Cosby Kids or Sigmund & The Sea Monsters, there was a three- or four-minute segment entitled "In The News" or "Multiplication Rock" where you'd be introduced to places like Conjunction Junction or have it hammered into your head that a noun is a person, place, or thing. One of the Multiplication Rock songs was "My Hero Zero."

The emergence of DeVon Hardin

Maybe everytime he dunks the ball or blocks a shot, the Straw Hat Band could launch into "Whip It."

Hardin isn't a classic box score stuffer - in the past three games, he's had 16 points and 13 rebounds in 47 minutes.  Yet on the court, he's made a big difference - especially in the two Oregon games.  Last weekend, the Bears were a +34 during the 34 minutes he played, but a -6 in the 46 minutes that he hasn't.  His offensive rebounding ability and the fact that he can play solid minutes in relief of Paris and sometimes Benson is a big boost for a team that was thought to be vulnerable in the post with the absence of Pac-10 freshman of the year Leon Powe.

 

The return of Marquise Kately

A few summers ago, anyone who saw Marquise Kately play in the San Francisco Summer Pro-Am League saw a running, jumping, scoring dervish whose future was limitless. Earlier this season, people were wondering not just where the old Kately went, but if they'd ever see him again.  Ever so gradually, he's been rounding back into form - although he's scored just 24 points during the past three games, the Bears have been a +38 with him on the court and just a +3 without him.  Kately's biggest mark has been on the defensive end. With him on the floor, the Bears are surrendering 1.16 points per minute or a 46 point/40 minute pace. Without Kately, the Bears are giving up 1.81 points per minutes or a 72 point/40 minute pace.

Martin Smith isn't going to have to play 30 minutes anymore

One of the great stories of the season is the emergence of Martin Smith as a point guard.  From seeing token minutes the past couple of years, Smith has now seen his playing time increase due to injuries to Midgley and Ubaka. While his ability to push the ball upcourt helps Cal's running game, teams have attempted to wear him down by putting man pressure on him as he brings the ball upcourt.  Evidence shows that Smith and the team do become less productive whenever he has to play more than 30 minutes.  Of the 10 games that there's +/- data for, Smith has played more than 30 minutes in half of them. In those five games, Smith was a +5 in the first half, but a -40 in the second half. In Cal's win over Oregon where he played 33 minutes, Smith was a +17 in the first half, but a -13 in the second half. In the five games where he plays less than 30 minutes, he was a +20 in the first half and was a +38 in the second half. Against Oregon State when he played 24 minutes, he was a +13 in the first half and a +12 in the second half. 

With Midgley recovering from his injury and Ubaka now healthy, it won't be necessary for Smith to play more than 30 minutes a game which should be better for both him and the team.

Success with different lineups

Before the season, it wasn't clear how deep the Golden Bears would be.  Yet in the wins against UCLA, Oregon, and Oregon State, Cal has been successful using different matchups - against UCLA, Cal had success with a frontline of McGuire, Paris, and Benson (14-3, +11). Yet against Oregon State, a frontline of Benson, Hardin, and Kately turned out to be the most productive (28-10, +18). During the three-game winning streak, the Bears have gotten help from several different lineups.  Head coach Ben Braun usually employs between 15 to 20 different lineups each game - the one common link in Cal's three most successful lineups in each of the three games has been Martin Smith. Otherwise, seven different players have been involved in the Bears' most productive combinations.   Curiously, the starting lineup hasn't been the most productive lineup in any of the three victories.

©Copyright 2005, TheBearInsider.com and Scout.com. All rights reserved.

If you haven't done so already, subscribe to The Bear Insider so you can participate in this online community and get access to the members-only content from the nationwide Insiders network.

Bear Insider staff writers visit the Insider discussion board regularly, and are available to discuss questions you may have about this article and Cal Athletics.

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