Fun With Numbers - Cal vs. Arizona

<p><em><small>Marquise Kately (AP Photo/Kevork Djansezian)</em></small></p> <p>With Rod Benson sidelined for the first half with a knee injury, it all went south for the Bears once David Paris picked up his third foul in the first half with the Bears trailing 20-12 with 7:39 left.</p> <p>Forced to go small, Cal had no answer for Arizona's Channing Frye, as the Wildcats went on a 22-11 run to finish up the half with a 42-23 lead, and eventually coast to an 88-63 win.</p>

Player Min +Pts -Pts Diff
Steve Panawek 2 7 5 +2
Alex Pribble 2 7 5 +2
Kevin Langford 6 13 13 0
Eric Vierneisel 10 19 21 -2
DeVon Hardin 19 31 38 -7
Ayinde Ubaka 25 44 52 -8
David Paris 11 10 21 -11
Rod Benson 18 28 39 -11
Marquise Kately 28 40 61 -21
Martin Smith 20 29 50 -21
Richard Midgley 32 46 69 -23
Dominic McGuire 27 41 66 -25

Comment:  After falling behind 10-0, the Bears actually closed within 6 at 18-12 with 8:10 left in the first half.  At the 7:39 mark with Arizona leading 20-12, David Paris picked up his third foul of the game, and Rod Benson was already out of the game after having knocked knees with Arizona's Salim Stoudamire. For the rest of the half, the Bears went with a small lineup with two guards, McGuire, Kately and either Hardin or Langford. The Wildcats outscored Cal 22-11, with Channing Frye scoring 12 of his 14 first half points during that time.

Most of the second half was extended garbage time as Lute Olson went to his bench early and often. Arizona pushed the lead up to 60-30 with 14:12 left - both teams played each other more or less even the rest of the way. 

Martin Smith had one of his worst halves of the year, as the Bears were only able to score seven points during his 10 first-half minutes.  By comparison, Cal scored 16 points during the 12 minutes that Ubaka was on the court.

And a final note, thanks to everyone who's read FWN during the past year. By the time March rolls around, I always tell myself that this is the last year that I'm going to do this and will henceforth trade in my pen and pad of paper for a burrito and a big drink - but then September rolls around and everything's fine again. 

First vs. Second Half (minimum 3 minutes)

First Half Top - Kevin Langford - 6-8, -2
Second Half Top - DeVon Hardin - 16-16 and Ayinde Ubaka - 28-28, 0

First Half Bottom - Dominic McGuire - 17-36, -19
Second Half Bottom - Richard Midgley and Marquise Kately - 23-31, -8

Difference Makers


None

Lineups

Midgley, Smith, McGuire, Paris and Benson (1st half starting lineup) in 4:36 - 2-10, -8
Midgley, Smith, McGuire, Kately and Paris (2nd hal starting lineup) in 1:54 - 4-5, -1
Benson-less, Paris-less lineups in first half in 7:39 - 11-24, -13
All other lineups in 25:51 - 46-49, -3

Contribution Evaluation (First half only)

Player Minutes Expected Actual Difference
Ubaka 12 -11.40 -8 +3.40
Langford 4 -3.80 -2 +1.80
Benson 8 -7.60 -6 +1.60
Hardin 8 -7.60 -7 +0.60
Kately 14 -13.30 -13 +0.30
Paris 9 -8.55 -10 -1.45
Smith 10 -9.50 -15 -5.50
McGuire 14 -13.30 -19 -6.70

Description: This stat measures the significance of a player's contribution to the team's effort. If a team wins by 10 points, and a player plays in half of the team's minutes, his expected contribution would be a +5. For example, when Cal defeated Grambling by 19 points. Brian Wethers played 28 minutes or 70% of the game. If we multiply 70% x +19, Wethers' expected contribution would be a +13.30. But for the game he was a +26, so his net for the game for a +12.70. In a perfect team situation, if everyone contributed equally, the difference column would consist of a row of zeros.


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  After falling behind 10-0, the Bears actually closed within 6 at 18-12 with 8:10 left in the first half.  At the 7:39 mark with Arizona leading 20-12, David Paris picked up his third foul of the game, and Rod Benson was already out of the game after having knocked knees with Arizona's Salim Stoudamire. For the rest of the half, the Bears went with a small lineup with two guards, McGuire, Kately and either Hardin or Langford. The Wildcats outscored Cal 22-11, with Channing Frye scoring 12 of his 14 first half points during that time.

Most of the second half was extended garbage time as Lute Olson went to his bench early and often. Arizona pushed the lead up to 60-30 with 14:12 left - both teams played each other more or less even the rest of the way. 

Martin Smith had one of his worst halves of the year, as the Bears were only able to score seven points during his 10 first-half minutes.  By comparison, Cal scored 16 points during the 12 minutes that Ubaka was on the court.

And a final note, thanks to everyone who's read FWN during the past year. By the time March rolls around, I always tell myself that this is the last year that I'm going to do this and will henceforth trade in my pen and pad of paper for a burrito and a big drink - but then September rolls around and everything's fine again. 

(minimum 3 minutes)

First Half Top - Kevin Langford - 6-8, -2
Second Half Top - DeVon Hardin - 16-16 and Ayinde Ubaka - 28-28, 0

First Half Bottom - Dominic McGuire - 17-36, -19
Second Half Bottom - Richard Midgley and Marquise Kately - 23-31, -8


None

Midgley, Smith, McGuire, Paris and Benson (1st half starting lineup) in 4:36 - 2-10, -8
Midgley, Smith, McGuire, Kately and Paris (2nd hal starting lineup) in 1:54 - 4-5, -1
Benson-less, Paris-less lineups in first half in 7:39 - 11-24, -13
All other lineups in 25:51 - 46-49, -3

This stat measures the significance of a player's contribution to the team's effort. If a team wins by 10 points, and a player plays in half of the team's minutes, his expected contribution would be a +5. For example, when Cal defeated Grambling by 19 points. Brian Wethers played 28 minutes or 70% of the game. If we multiply 70% x +19, Wethers' expected contribution would be a +13.30. But for the game he was a +26, so his net for the game for a +12.70. In a perfect team situation, if everyone contributed equally, the difference column would consist of a row of zeros.

©Copyright 2005, TheBearInsider.com and Scout.com. All rights reserved.

If you haven't done so already, subscribe to The Bear Insider so you can participate in this online community and get access to the members-only content from the nationwide Insiders network.

Bear Insider staff writers visit the Insider discussion board regularly, and are available to discuss questions you may have about this article and Cal Athletics.

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