Plus/minus: Cal vs. Arizona

Although Leon Powe had 23 points and 13 rebounds and California had one of its most valiant defensive efforts in Tucson in years, it wasn't enough as Arizona defeated the Golden Bears 60-55 at McKale Center. The loss dropped Cal's season record to 10-6, 4-3 in conference play. The Bears also got stellar play from reserve Theo Robertson who scored 11 points in 20 minutes. Robertson recorded a +8, the only Bear to have a positive plus/minus number.

During the last 31 seconds, there were a flurry of substitutions when Cal went with a five-guard lineup for the sake of committing fouls and sending Arizona to the line. The units that were on for fouling purposes included Nikola Knezevic and Alex Pribble who would have Arizona's three made free throws count against them, but would not be on the floor for the following offensive possession.  DeVon Hardin and Leon Powe would be on the floor for the offensive possessions.  Arizona outscored Cal 5-4 during that stretch which skews some of the Contribution Evaluation numbers.

Player Min +Pts -Pts Pts Reb Ast Diff
Theo Robertson 20 34 26 11 1 1 +8
Leon Powe 39 53 53 23 13 2 0
Eric Vierneisel 7 11 11 0 1 1 0
Omar Wilkes 29 37 40 4 0 1 -3
Richard Midgley 39 55 58 4 1 2 -3
Nikola Knezevic 1 0 3 0 0 0 -3
DeVon Hardin 16 19 23 4 7 0 -4
Ayinde Ubaka 37 53 58 13 2 5 -5
Jordan Wilkes 7 9 16 0 0 0 -7
Alex Pribble 5 4 12 0 0 0 -8

First vs. Second Half (minimum 2 minutes)

First Half Top - Theo Robertson, 16-14, +2
Second Half Top - Theo Robertson, 18-12, +6

First Half Bottom - Jordan Wilkes, 9-16; Ayinde Ubaka and Richard Midgley, 22-29; -7
Second Half Bottom - Alex Pribble, 4-8, -4

Difference Makers

Theo Robertson had an outstanding effort against Arizona. Although his final statistics of 11 points, 1 rebound, and 1 assist are modest, during the 20 minutes that he played, the Bears outscored the Wildcats by 8 (34-26). During the 20 minutes that he didn't play, Cal was outscored 34-21 (-13), marking a 21-point swing.

To look at his contributions another way, when he was on the court, the Bears averaged 1.70 points per minute (68 points/40 minutes). When he wasn't playing, Cal averaged 1.05 points per minute (42 points/40 minutes), a number that was inflated by four points in the last minute due to the fouling strategy that Cal employed.

Theo Roberton in 20 minutes - 34-26, +8
Without Robertson in 20 minutes - 21-34, -13

With Leon Powe in 39 minutes - 53-53, 0
Without Powe in 1 minute - 2-7, -5

With Eric Vierneisel in 7 minutes, 11-11, 0
Without Vierneisel in 33 minutes, 44-49, -5

Starting Lineup

Ubaka/Wilkes/Midgley/Harden/Powe in 10:06 - 13-12, +1
All other lineups in 25:17 - 38-50, -12

Trios

Ubaka/Wilkes/Midgley combos in 25:10 - 35-34, +1
Ubaka/Vierneisel/Midgley combos in 6:10 - 9-10, -1
*Ubaka/Midgley/Robertson combos in 3:36 - 7-5, +2
Ubaka/Wilkes/Pribble combos in 1:56 - 0-2, -2
Wilkes/Midgley/Pribble combos in 1:36 - 2-2, 0
Ubaka/Midgley/Pribble combos in 0:44 - 0-4, 4
Wilkes/Knezevic/Midgley combos in 0:37 - 0-0, 0
All other combos in 0:11 - 2-3, -1

*Robertson was generally used as a backup forward when it was time to give Powe or Hardin a breather. However, there was one moment in the first half when the Bears went with a lineup of Ubaka, Midgley, Robertson, Jordan Wilkes, and Powe which pushed Robertson out to a swingman/guard role.

Contribution Evaluation

Player Minutes Expected Actual Difference
Robertson 20 -2.50 +8 +10.50
Powe 39 -4.87 0 +4.87
Midgley 39 -4.87 -3 +1.87
Vierneisel 7 -0.88 0 +0.88
O. Wilkes 29 -3.62 -3 +0.62
Ubaka 37 -4.62 -5 -0.38
Hardin 16 -2.00 -4 -2.00
Knezevic 1 -0.13 -3 -2.87
J. Wilkes 7 -0.88 -7 -6.12
Pribble 5 -0.63 -8 -7.37

Description: This stat measures the significance of a player's contribution to the team's effort. If a team wins by 10 points, and a player plays in half of the team's minutes, his expected contribution would be a +5. For example, when Cal defeated Grambling by 19 points. Brian Wethers played 28 minutes or 70% of the game. If we multiply 70% x +19, Wethers' expected contribution would be a +13.30. But for the game he was a +26, so his net for the game for a +12.70. In a perfect team situation, if everyone contributed equally, the difference column would consist of a row of zeros.


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During the last 31 seconds, there were a flurry of substitutions when Cal went with a five-guard lineup for the sake of committing fouls and sending Arizona to the line. The units that were on for fouling purposes included Nikola Knezevic and Alex Pribble who would have Arizona's three made free throws count against them, but would not be on the floor for the following offensive possession.  DeVon Hardin and Leon Powe would be on the floor for the offensive possessions.  Arizona outscored Cal 5-4 during that stretch which skews some of the Contribution Evaluation numbers.

(minimum 2 minutes)

First Half Top - Theo Robertson, 16-14, +2
Second Half Top - Theo Robertson, 18-12, +6

First Half Bottom - Jordan Wilkes, 9-16; Ayinde Ubaka and Richard Midgley, 22-29; -7
Second Half Bottom - Alex Pribble, 4-8, -4

Theo Robertson had an outstanding effort against Arizona. Although his final statistics of 11 points, 1 rebound, and 1 assist are modest, during the 20 minutes that he played, the Bears outscored the Wildcats by 8 (34-26). During the 20 minutes that he didn't play, Cal was outscored 34-21 (-13), marking a 21-point swing.

To look at his contributions another way, when he was on the court, the Bears averaged 1.70 points per minute (68 points/40 minutes). When he wasn't playing, Cal averaged 1.05 points per minute (42 points/40 minutes), a number that was inflated by four points in the last minute due to the fouling strategy that Cal employed.

Theo Roberton in 20 minutes - 34-26, +8
Without Robertson in 20 minutes - 21-34, -13

With Leon Powe in 39 minutes - 53-53, 0
Without Powe in 1 minute - 2-7, -5

With Eric Vierneisel in 7 minutes, 11-11, 0
Without Vierneisel in 33 minutes, 44-49, -5

Starting Lineup

Ubaka/Wilkes/Midgley/Harden/Powe in 10:06 - 13-12, +1
All other lineups in 25:17 - 38-50, -12

Trios

Ubaka/Wilkes/Midgley combos in 25:10 - 35-34, +1
Ubaka/Vierneisel/Midgley combos in 6:10 - 9-10, -1
*Ubaka/Midgley/Robertson combos in 3:36 - 7-5, +2
Ubaka/Wilkes/Pribble combos in 1:56 - 0-2, -2
Wilkes/Midgley/Pribble combos in 1:36 - 2-2, 0
Ubaka/Midgley/Pribble combos in 0:44 - 0-4, 4
Wilkes/Knezevic/Midgley combos in 0:37 - 0-0, 0
All other combos in 0:11 - 2-3, -1

*Robertson was generally used as a backup forward when it was time to give Powe or Hardin a breather. However, there was one moment in the first half when the Bears went with a lineup of Ubaka, Midgley, Robertson, Jordan Wilkes, and Powe which pushed Robertson out to a swingman/guard role.

This stat measures the significance of a player's contribution to the team's effort. If a team wins by 10 points, and a player plays in half of the team's minutes, his expected contribution would be a +5. For example, when Cal defeated Grambling by 19 points. Brian Wethers played 28 minutes or 70% of the game. If we multiply 70% x +19, Wethers' expected contribution would be a +13.30. But for the game he was a +26, so his net for the game for a +12.70. In a perfect team situation, if everyone contributed equally, the difference column would consist of a row of zeros.

©Copyright 2005, TheBearInsider.com and Scout.com. All rights reserved.

If you haven't done so already, subscribe to The Bear Insider so you can participate in this online community and get access to the members-only content from the nationwide Insiders network.

Bear Insider staff writers visit the Insider discussion board regularly, and are available to discuss questions you may have about this article and Cal Athletics.

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