Bear Intelligence - March 1, 2006

With just two games left in the regular season plus whatever postseason play lies ahead, Bear Intelligence has managed to temporarily sweep aside its stack of plus/minus charts, and a hopeless entwinement of remote controls, dried-up pens and coffee-stained NASCAR magazines to tackle some questions that it's been ponderng about for most of the season.

During conference play does Ben Braun have a better record during the first half of the season or the second half?

During a recent chat session, someone asked if California head coach Ben Braun had a better record during the first half or second half of conference play.   After 160 conference games, his record between halves is almost identical. His first half conference record is 44-37 (.543), his second half conference record is currently 41-38 (.519) and will end up somewhere between .506 and .530.

However, the past four years show that Cal has done slightly better during the first half (.636 - 22-14) than the second half (.500 - 17-17). Also, the Bears have done better in the first half than the second half during the past three years.

This season, the Bears are in a position to have tie their best-ever 2nd half conference record under Braun. 

Ben Braun at California

  Overall Conference 1st Half 2nd Half
1997-1998 12-15 8-10 4-5 4-5
1998-1999 22-11 8-10 3-6 5-4
1999-2000 18-15 7-11 4-5 3-6
2000-2001 20-11 11-7 6-3 5-4
2001-2002 23-9 12-6 5-4 7-2
2002-2003 22-9 13-5 7-2 6-3
2003-2004 13-15 9-9 5-4 4-5
2004-2005 13-16 6-12 4-5 2-7
2005-2006 17-8 11-5 6-3 5-2
TOTAL 160-109 85-75 44-37 41-38

 

Of Cal's top three scorers (Leon Powe, Ayinde Ubaka, and Richard Midgley) is there a big difference in how they play at home versus how they play on the road?

While there isn't much change in the scoring averages of Midgley and Ubaka, Powe has a 6.6 point difference between home (23.3) and away (16.7) games. Much of this can be attributed to a five-point game that Powe had against UCLA. The Bears were able to win that game due to a strong defensive effort and four other Bears scoring in double figures.

Strangely, all three players shot better from the field away from home, with Midgley having the biggest difference, shooting 47.3% during away games, but just 34.8% during home games.

It's not strange for players to have better free throw shooting percentages at home, but the differences were significant for Powe and Midgley. Powe had a 17.7% difference, shooting 80.7% (71/88) from the line at home but just 63.0% (46/73) in away games. Midgley had an even larger difference at 26.7%, shooting 88.2% (15/17) at home, but 61.5% (8/13) during away games.

Leon Powe

  Avg. Minutes FG% 3FG% FT% Pts. Ast. Reb.
Home 36.7 45.5% 40.0% 80.7% 23.3 9.9 1.1
Away 33.6 47.3% 0% 63.0% 16.7 10.8 1.7
Total 34.9 46.6% 28.6% 72.7% 19.6 10.4 1.4
If Powe's UCLA game was temporarily set aside, his away scoring average would suddenly jump to 20.7 points per game...While his home/away splits for field goal percentages don't show much difference (45.5%/47.3%), his free throws numbers do vary substantially. Powe averages 12.6 free throw attempts at home and shoots 80.7%, compared to just 8.1 free throw attempts on the road while shooting just 63.0%.  Put another way, Powe averages 10.1 made free throws a game at home compared to just 5.1 made free throws a game on the road.

 

Ayinde Ubaka

  Avg. Minutes FG% 3FG% FT% Pts. Ast. Reb.
Home 39.3 36.4% 38.2% 83.0% 15.4 3.1 3.9
Away 37.2 42.4% 31.9% 84.2% 14.6 3.0 3.7
Total 38.1 39.8% 34.6% 83.5% 14.9 3.1 3.8
While home/away splits for Ubaka are about the same for   points, rebounds, and assists; his overall field goal percentage was higher on the road (42.4% to 36.4%), but his 3 point shooting percentage was higher at Haas (38.2% to 31.9%).  Another way to look at it is that his shooting on two-point field goals was quite a bit higher on the road (50.2% - 27/52) then it was at home (34.9% -15/43)....Ubaka also shot more free throws at home, averaging 6.7 attempts combared to just 4.2 attempts on the road.

 

Richard Midgley

  Avg. Minutes FG% 3FG% FT% Pts. Ast. Reb.
Home 32.7 34.8% 31.3% 88.2% 8.1 2.9 2.3
Away 34.0 47.3% 48.5% 61.5% 8.4 1.9 2.2
Total 33.4 41.6% 40.0% 76.7% 8.3 2.3 2.3
Although Midgley has had numerous high and low scoring games, his home/road averages are fairly similar. Surprisingly, he's a much better shooter from the field on the road (47.3% to 34.8%) and from three-point territory (48.5% to 31.3%) on the road than he is at home. Yet from the free throw line, he shoots a robust 88.2% at Haas, compared to just 61.5% on the road...On the road, 60% (33/55) of Midgley's field goal attempts are three-point shots. That percentage increases substantially at home where 70% (32/46) of his field goal attmpets are three-pointers....His free throw attempt average is slightly higher at home (4.6) than it is on the road (3.7).

 

Using the same line of thinking, is there a difference between how Cal's top three scorers play during conference wins and losses?

Ubaka has scored 5.4 more points during wins (16.6) than losses (11.2). This decrease in scoring is mirrored by declines in field goal shooting (43.1% - wins, 33.3% - losses), three-point field goal shhoting (42.3% - wins, 20.7% - losses) and assists (3.7 - wins, 1.6 - losses).

Powe's scoring percentage is virtually the same in wins and losses. He does have a lower amount of field goal attempts during losses which is offset by a significantly better field goal shooting percentage. During wins, Powe's assist average is triple (1.8) what it is during losses (0.6).

While there isn't much change in Midgley's point and assist averages, he does shoot considerably better from the field and the line in wins versus losses. Curiously, in losses, Midgley seems more willing to settle for the three-point shot as 83% of his field goal attempts were from three-point territory. By comparison, 55% of his field goal attempts were from three-point territory in wins.

Leon Powe

  Avg. Minutes FG% 3FG% FT% Pts. Reb. Asst.
Wins 34.5 43.3% 28.6% 72.6% 19.5 10.6 1.8
Losses 36.0 55.8% 0% 72.7% 19.6 9.8 0.6
Total 34.9 46.6% 28.6% 72.7% 19.6 10.4 1.4
Whether the team wins or loses, Powe's scoring and rebounding averages are about the same...The one major difference is that he shoots 55.8% on an average of 10.4 field goal attempts during losses compared to just 43.3% on 14.3 field goal attempts during wins...Additionally, during wins, his assist rate is triple what it is compared to when the team loses.

 

Ayinde Ubaka

  Avg. Minutes FG% 3FG% FT% Pts. Ast. Reb.
Wins 37.3 43.1% 42.3% 83.6% 16.6 3.7 3.6
Losses 40.0 33.3% 20.7% 83.3% 11.2 1.6 4.0
Total 38.1 39.8% 34.6% 83.5% 14.9 3.1 3.8
Of the three players listed here, Ubaka had by far the biggest statistical difference in Cal's wins and losses.  In wins, Ubaka averaged 16.6 points and 3.7 assists a game, shot 43.3% from the field and 42.3% from three-point territory. In losses, he scored 11.2 points and 1.6 assists a game, and shot just 33.3% from the field and 20.7% from three-point territory...Ubaka can't be accused of becoming gun-shy as he averaged 12.0 field goal attempts in losses compared to 10.5 field goal attempts in wins...However, in wins, Ubaka averaged 6.6 free throw attempts (5.5 made) compared to just 2.4 free throw attempts (2.0 made) in losses.

 

Richard Midgley

  Avg. Minutes FG% 3FG% FT% Pts. Ast. Reb.
Wins 32.4 45.5% 44.4% 87.0% 8.7 2.5 1.8
Losses 35.8 34.3% 34.5% 42.9% 7.4 2.0 3.2
Total 33.4 41.6% 40.0% 76.7% 8.3 2.3 2.3
Midgley shoots quite a bit better from the field (45.5% to 34.3%) and the line (87.0% to 42.9%) in wins compared to losses...Perhaps the most interesting finding is that Midgley settled for three-point shots much more easily during the Bears five losses.  Of his 35 field goal attempts, 29 (83%) were three-point shots.  During Cal victories the percentage of three-point shots as a total of all shots dropped to 55% (36/66)...During wins, Midgley averaged 2.1 free throws per game compared to just 1.4 free throws during losses.

 

How's the 2006 recruiting class looking?

All four of Cal's incoming recruits played on teams that had successful regular seasons and played in the postseason. As of Wednesday morning, Jerome Randle (Hales Franciscan) was the lone player on a team still in the hunt for state title, while teams with Patrick Christopher (Dominguez), Taylor Harrison (San Clemente) and Ryan Anderson (Oak Ridge) were eliminated.

JEROME RANDLE - HALES FRANCISCAN
Randle scored 27 points including 8 of 9 three-pointers as Hales Franciscan (19-7) defeated Beecher 76-43 to win the Beecher Regional. They will advance to the Momence Sectional where they will play Herscher on Wednesday. At the end of the regular season, IllinoisPrepHoops.com had them ranked #1 in Class A, Illinois High School Sports had them ranked No. 3 in Class A.

Hales Franciscan's tourney bracket

PATRICK CHRISTOPHER - DOMINGUEZ
Dominguez lost a heartbreaker to Villa Park 65-64 on Tuesday evenning in the CIF Division II-A Semifinals. Earlier, Christopher scored 13 points to help Dominguez (20-5) defeat Mayfair 60-43 in the quarterfinals of the CIF Division II-A Southern Section playoffs.

Dominguez/Mayfair game story

Bear Insider update

Dominguez's tourney bracket

TAYLOR HARRISON - SAN CLEMENTE
Harrison had 13 points and 15 rebounds for San Clemente (20-10) but it wasn't enough to overcome Leuzinger (25-4) and Russell Westbrook's 24 points and 9 rebounds in the Division I-AA quarterfinals. For the season he averaged 16.0 points and 11.1 rebounds including a 32-point, 17-rebound game against Long Beach Jordan, a 29-point, 24-rebound game against La Habra, and a 21-point, 22-rebound games against Santa Ana Valley.

Bear Insider update

Taylor Harrison's OCVarsity stats page

San Clemente's tourney bracket

RYAN ANDERSON - OAK RIDGE
Anderson turned heads with his 50-point, 18-rebound showing in a 75-65 first-round playoff victory over Pitman. However, Oak Ridge (26-3) which was seeded #1 in the section was upset by 8th-seeded Laguna Creek 66-62.  Anderson scored 18 points but Laguna Creek was led by hot-shooting 5-11 guard Mark Clark who scored 32 points. Averaging 29 points a game for the Trojans, Anderson was praised by his coach in a recent Sacramento Bee article as being "the nicest guy in the world."

Sacramento Bee spotlight article

Oak Ridge/Laguna Creek game story

Oak Ridge's tourney bracket


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