Can Cal Win Out?

After three games, Sagarin's football ratings as published in USA Today begin to take on some semblance of reality. As more games are played, more results help build a better quality database and improve the quality of forecasts.

Intersectional games also provide an opportunity to assess the relative strengths of conferences. Interestingly, the Pac-10 now sits atop the national heap, followed by the Big-10 and the SEC conference, of which Tennessee is a member.

This lofty position is not typical for the Pac-10 - and may not last as more games are played. The Pac normally finds itself amongst the top 5 conferences nationally - but not in the top slot.

Competition within the Pac-10 now seems to be narrowing to about 5 teams - if you are willing to trust the results of a computer's statistical and comparative analysis.

After week 3, USC leads substantially with a rank of 100.29, with Cal (86.26) and Arizona State (86.23) virtually tied, followed by Oregon at 83.83 and UCLA at 82.49.

The difference between the rankings for any two teams is the number of points one team would be favored by over the other if the game were played on a neutral field. Add 3.57 points to the score for the home team to see Sagarin's "best predictor" for a game.

Trailing the leading five, Oregon State, Washington State, and Washington are now ranked in the low 70s, with Arizona and Stanford dragging the bottom of the bucket at the low 60s. Were Stanford to go up against Cal today, at memorial Stadium, the Bears would be favored by 29.8 points.

Stanford's ranking is so low, at 60.01, that the Cards threaten to drop into unheard of territory - the woleful, doleful 50s. (Play a funeral march, Maestro, but with feeling!)

The Arizona State virtual tie with Cal "means" (again, if you believe computer generated numbers) that next Saturday's match between the two at Memorial Stadium hinges on the home field advantage. Add the 3.57 points fro the home field to the difference between the two ranks and Sagarin says Cal is favored by 3.60 points. This is the closest margin of all Cal games remaining in a season where Sagarin now says Cal will win out except for a predicted loss to USC.

(Complete rankings for Cal's season are available at The Bear Insider's "BearPlay" game where Cal fans compete by picking winning margins for Cal football games. The game can be seen here.)

Cal fans managed enough crowd noise to force Minnesota into at least two false starts. A few of those against Arizona State next Saturday would make the home field advantage real.


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If you haven't done so already, subscribe to The Bear Insider so you can participate in this active online Cal community and get access to the members-only content from the nation-wide Scout.com network.

Bear Insider staff writers visit the Insider discussion board regularly, and are available to discuss questions you may have about this article and Cal Athletics.


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Intersectional games also provide an opportunity to assess the relative strengths of conferences. Interestingly, the Pac-10 now sits atop the national heap, followed by the Big-10 and the SEC conference, of which Tennessee is a member.

This lofty position is not typical for the Pac-10 - and may not last as more games are played. The Pac normally finds itself amongst the top 5 conferences nationally - but not in the top slot.

Competition within the Pac-10 now seems to be narrowing to about 5 teams - if you are willing to trust the results of a computer's statistical and comparative analysis.

After week 3, USC leads substantially with a rank of 100.29, with Cal (86.26) and Arizona State (86.23) virtually tied, followed by Oregon at 83.83 and UCLA at 82.49.

The difference between the rankings for any two teams is the number of points one team would be favored by over the other if the game were played on a neutral field. Add 3.57 points to the score for the home team to see Sagarin's \"best predictor\" for a game.

Trailing the leading five, Oregon State, Washington State, and Washington are now ranked in the low 70s, with Arizona and Stanford dragging the bottom of the bucket at the low 60s. Were Stanford to go up against Cal today, at memorial Stadium, the Bears would be favored by 29.8 points.

Stanford's ranking is so low, at 60.01, that the Cards threaten to drop into unheard of territory - the woleful, doleful 50s. (Play a funeral march, Maestro, but with feeling!)

The Arizona State virtual tie with Cal \"means\" (again, if you believe computer generated numbers) that next Saturday's match between the two at Memorial Stadium hinges on the home field advantage. Add the 3.57 points fro the home field to the difference between the two ranks and Sagarin says Cal is favored by 3.60 points. This is the closest margin of all Cal games remaining in a season where Sagarin now says Cal will win out except for a predicted loss to USC.

(Complete rankings for Cal's season are available at The Bear Insider's \"BearPlay\" game where Cal fans compete by picking winning margins for Cal football games. The game can be seen here.)

Cal fans managed enough crowd noise to force Minnesota into at least two false starts. A few of those against Arizona State next Saturday would make the home field advantage real.


©Copyright 2006, BearInsider.com and Scout.com. All rights reserved.

If you haven't done so already, subscribe to The Bear Insider so you can participate in this active online Cal community and get access to the members-only content from the nation-wide Scout.com network.

Bear Insider staff writers visit the Insider discussion board regularly, and are available to discuss questions you may have about this article and Cal Athletics.

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