USC now rated over Cal by just 6.6 points

With two or three Pac-10 conference games played, the computer rankings published by Sagarin in USA Today begin to take on more meaning - and to confirm trends seen earlier. Changes from last week include some big plusses: Cal up by 2.6, UCLA up by 11.3, Oregon up by 5.1, and Washington up by 5.2.

But there were ranking losses too, decreases that incorporate the results of this last weekend's games. Losers included Arizona, down 2.5 points after their loss to middlin' Washington, and USC - in the biggest drop of the week - down 4 points to a definitely unspectacular new rating of 94.45 points.

(For the uninitiated, these point rankings are computed on a national basis to find the set of numbers that "best explain" the wins and losses so far. Best doesn't mean accurate - it just means that no other set of numbers can do any better to explain the results.)

This week's big news:

  • USC took a big hit because of their struggle against Washington State, and even though they won, their rating dropped 4 poijnts.
  • Cal gained 2.6 points from its OSU win, and is now forecast to beat Oregon by 6.5 points in next week's game. Cal's rating is a very respectable 91.4, one of the very few times in recent memory that Cal has broken into the 90s. (USC has often been above 100, as warranted by best-in-the-country status in recent years.)
  • To the acclaim of many (2? 3?) Leland Stanford Jr. University managed to climb out of the 50s with their loss to UCLA. Their rating went up after a thorough defeat? All we can say is that a rating in the 50s is so bad that just showing up on the football field can help.
  • With Cal in the 90s, and with USC at a very untypical mid-nineties, USC would be favored over the Bears by just 6.6 points if the game were played today - and by just 2.9 points if the game were played on a neutral field. That's what the actual performances so far say.
  • If Cal and Stanford were to play at Memorial Stadium today, the Bears would be favored by 34.2 points - with the gap closing from 35.5 points last week. Katie bar the door, lads, the Cardinal has begun its creep.

In other observations, the Pac-10 has increased its lead over the next-nearest conference, the Big-10, from a 0.9 point lead to a 1.8 point lead. These numbers are small because as the abilities of large numbers of players are folded together, the differences between groups fall. Trailing the Big-10 are the SEC and Big-12 conferences.

1. Using Sagarin's "best predictor" as the measure (as is the case for all the numbers used in this article), Cal has risen to 5th in the nation (up from 6th last week), with USC still #1, Oregon 8th and Washington State 24th. With home field advantages included Cal is now favored over both Oregon by 6.5 points and Washington State by 6.0 points.

2. Last week we observed that UCLA had suffered a dreadful drop in it's ranking, from 82.5 to 70.1, a 12.4-point drop, as a result of their unexpected loss to Washington in Seattle, 29-19. We opined that the computer result indicated that UCLA was WAY over-ranked. Now, with the 11.3-point UCLA gain after their defeat of of Stanford, we are reduced to saying that UCLA may be the most unpredictable team in the conference. As in pogo stick.

3. The Pac-10 now features USC and Cal in the 90s, Oregon in the high 80s, with UCLA and WSU trailing in the low 80s. The rest are battling for second division supremacy. (Complete current Sagarin rankings for Cal's season are available at The Bear Insider's "BearPlay" game where Cal fans compete by picking winning margins for Cal football games. The game can be seen here.)

4. Get past Oregon and Washington State, and Cal is favored by double-digits the rest of the way - except, of course, against the Trojans.

5. Tennessee is now ranked 84.3, 7.1 points lower than Cal. Were the two to play a game this week at Memorial Stadium, Cal would be favored (by the computer) by 10.7 points.


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But there were ranking losses too, decreases that incorporate the results of this last weekend's games. Losers included Arizona, down 2.5 points after their loss to middlin' Washington, and USC - in the biggest drop of the week - down 4 points to a definitely unspectacular new rating of 94.45 points.

(For the uninitiated, these point rankings are computed on a national basis to find the set of numbers that \"best explain\" the wins and losses so far. Best doesn't mean accurate - it just means that no other set of numbers can do any better to explain the results.)

This week's big news:

In other observations, the Pac-10 has increased its lead over the next-nearest conference, the Big-10, from a 0.9 point lead to a 1.8 point lead. These numbers are small because as the abilities of large numbers of players are folded together, the differences between groups fall. Trailing the Big-10 are the SEC and Big-12 conferences.

1. Using Sagarin's \"best predictor\" as the measure (as is the case for all the numbers used in this article), Cal has risen to 5th in the nation (up from 6th last week), with USC still #1, Oregon 8th and Washington State 24th. With home field advantages included Cal is now favored over both Oregon by 6.5 points and Washington State by 6.0 points.

2. Last week we observed that UCLA had suffered a dreadful drop in it's ranking, from 82.5 to 70.1, a 12.4-point drop, as a result of their unexpected loss to Washington in Seattle, 29-19. We opined that the computer result indicated that UCLA was WAY over-ranked. Now, with the 11.3-point UCLA gain after their defeat of of Stanford, we are reduced to saying that UCLA may be the most unpredictable team in the conference. As in pogo stick.

3. The Pac-10 now features USC and Cal in the 90s, Oregon in the high 80s, with UCLA and WSU trailing in the low 80s. The rest are battling for second division supremacy. (Complete current Sagarin rankings for Cal's season are available at The Bear Insider's \"BearPlay\" game where Cal fans compete by picking winning margins for Cal football games. The game can be seen here.)

4. Get past Oregon and Washington State, and Cal is favored by double-digits the rest of the way - except, of course, against the Trojans.

5. Tennessee is now ranked 84.3, 7.1 points lower than Cal. Were the two to play a game this week at Memorial Stadium, Cal would be favored (by the computer) by 10.7 points.


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If you haven't done so already, subscribe to The Bear Insider so you can participate in this active online Cal community and get access to the members-only content from the nation-wide Scout.com network.

Bear Insider staff writers visit the Insider discussion board regularly, and are available to discuss questions you may have about this article and Cal Athletics.

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