Is a Rose Bowl Possible for the Bears?

Ok, so the Cal Bears are one-third of the way through the conference schedule and are 3-0 with wins over contenders turned pretenders Arizona State and Oregon. Is it too early to start talking about bowl plans, BCS possibilities, and the like?

Of course it isn't, that's just what Cal fans have been doing for weeks as they begin to consider their schedule for the holidays. "Will it be Hawaii," Mable? "Or maybe Los Angeles?"

So, for the record, let's list the possibilities and try to assess their likelihoods. There are just six possibilities for Cal:

  • Go to the National Title Game
  • Go to the Rose Bowl
  • Go to another BCS Bowl game
  • Go to a non BCS Bowl game
  • Don't go to a Bowl game at all


We will deal with each in order. To do that, we need a primer on the BCS structure ...

  • The Bowl Championship Series (BCS) is a five-game arrangement for post-season college football that is designed to match the two top-rated teams in a national championship game, and to create exciting and competitive matchups between eight other highly regarded teams in the other four games.
  • The four participating bowl games are the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, FedEx Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl, Allstate Sugar Bowl, and the BCS National Championship Game that will be played each year at one of the four sites.
  • The top two teams in the final BCS Standings play in the national championship game.
  • The champions of the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, and Southeastern conferences will have automatic berths in one of the participating bowls. That fills six of the ten available berths. (10 = 2 teams in each of 5 games).
  • The champions of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:
    • The team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS standings.
    • The team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS standings and its ranking is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has one of the automatic berths in a BCS bowl.
    • Which in turn means that the number of berths these teams will occupy cannot be known until season results are in.

  • Unless they qualify to play in the National Championship game, the champions of selected conferences are contractually committed to host selected games:

    • Atlantic Coast Conference - Orange Bowl
    • Big Ten Conference - Rose Bowl
    • Big-12 Conference - Fiesta Bowl
    • Pac-10 Conference - Rose Bowl
    • Southeastern Conference - Sugar Bowl


Scenario 1: Cal in the National Championship game

For this to happen, three things would have to occur.

  • Cal would have to win out.

And that's just the math of it. A one-loss Cal team might rank better in the BCS standings than an undefeated Rutgers or Boise State. So the third (highly remote) condition is:

  • Ohio State or Michigan would have to lose to someone other than each other; Notre Dame, Texas, Auburn, and Tennessee would probably have to lose again for the Bears to make the leap to one of the two top spots.


Scenario 2: Cal goes to the Rose Bowl

This one seems simple - but it has complications, just like the rest of the BCS setup.

  • If Cal wins out they would be Pac-10 champion and would go to the Rose Bowl.

If the Bears lose one more league game to someone other than USC, but beat USC, Cal would win the conference title on the head-to-head tiebreaker. Again, Rose Bowl.

If Cal loses to USC, it is still possible for them to play in the Rose Bowl without being Pac-10 champion, though this scenario is not likely. These two things would have to happen:

  • The Pac-10 champion (in all probability USC) would have to be committed to the national championship game.
  • Cal would have to be BCS eligible, that is, within to top 14 in the BCS rankings. The Rose Bowl could possibly have two slots to fill if they lose both Ohio St.(Big-10 champ) and USC (Pac10 champ) to the national championship game. Michigan vs. Cal would then be a natural that preserved the Pac-10 vs.Big-10 tradition, but relying on the BCS rankings is perilous. Recall that one loss by one touchdown against eventual national champion USC kept the Bears out of BCS eligibility in 2004.


Scenario 3: Cal goes to another BCS Bowl.

This is almost impossible. Cal would have to be 1) BCS eligible, 2) not be the conference champion, and 3) have USC not in the national championship. There might be a scenario where that could happen, but it is far fetched.


Scenario 4: Go to a non-BCS bowl game

This is the most likely outcome if the Bears lose another game (or more) along the way.

The Pac-10 has contracts with the Holiday Bowl (San Diego), Sun Bowl (El Paso), Emerald Bowl (San Francisco), Las Vegas Bowl, and the Hawaii Bowl.

Which one Cal would be invited to will depend on how the rest of the league shakes out. The Sun, Holiday, and Vegas Bowls have all hosted Cal and Oregon recently and might have concerns about how each school would travel for a return visit. At this level, the decisions become very political.


Scenario 5: Don't go to bowl game at all

To "achieve" this the Bears would have to lose at least five of their last six games. "Not bloody likely," says our good friend AussieBear.


Let's give this a wrap, listing here only the reasonably likely scenarios:

  • Cal wins out (or loses one more but also beats USC), Cal goes to the Rose Bowl. This means USC goes down AND many Cal alums get the bowl game that lives in their hearts. Could there be a better combination?

  • Cal loses one or more games and goes to a non-BCS bowl game. But where? Two interesting locations are Marty Robbins' "West Texas Town of El Paso" - or Hawaii - at Christmas.

©Copyright 2006, BearInsider.com and Scout.com. All rights reserved.

If you haven't done so already, subscribe to The Bear Insider so you can participate in this active online Cal community and get access to the members-only content from the nation-wide Scout.com network.

Bear Insider staff writers visit the Insider discussion board regularly, and are available to discuss questions you may have about this article and Cal Athletics.


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Of course it isn't, that's just what Cal fans have been doing for weeks as they begin to consider their schedule for the holidays. \"Will it be Hawaii,\" Mable? \"Or maybe Los Angeles?\"

So, for the record, let's list the possibilities and try to assess their likelihoods. There are just six possibilities for Cal:


We will deal with each in order. To do that, we need a primer on the BCS structure ...


Scenario 1: Cal in the National Championship game

For this to happen, three things would have to occur.

And that's just the math of it. A one-loss Cal team might rank better in the BCS standings than an undefeated Rutgers or Boise State. So the third (highly remote) condition is:


Scenario 2: Cal goes to the Rose Bowl

This one seems simple - but it has complications, just like the rest of the BCS setup.

If the Bears lose one more league game to someone other than USC, but beat USC, Cal would win the conference title on the head-to-head tiebreaker. Again, Rose Bowl.

If Cal loses to USC, it is still possible for them to play in the Rose Bowl without being Pac-10 champion, though this scenario is not likely. These two things would have to happen:


Scenario 3: Cal goes to another BCS Bowl.

This is almost impossible. Cal would have to be 1) BCS eligible, 2) not be the conference champion, and 3) have USC not in the national championship. There might be a scenario where that could happen, but it is far fetched.


Scenario 4: Go to a non-BCS bowl game

This is the most likely outcome if the Bears lose another game (or more) along the way.

The Pac-10 has contracts with the Holiday Bowl (San Diego), Sun Bowl (El Paso), Emerald Bowl (San Francisco), Las Vegas Bowl, and the Hawaii Bowl.

Which one Cal would be invited to will depend on how the rest of the league shakes out. The Sun, Holiday, and Vegas Bowls have all hosted Cal and Oregon recently and might have concerns about how each school would travel for a return visit. At this level, the decisions become very political.


Scenario 5: Don't go to bowl game at all

To \"achieve\" this the Bears would have to lose at least five of their last six games. \"Not bloody likely,\" says our good friend AussieBear.


Let's give this a wrap, listing here only the reasonably likely scenarios:


©Copyright 2006, BearInsider.com and Scout.com. All rights reserved.

If you haven't done so already, subscribe to The Bear Insider so you can participate in this active online Cal community and get access to the members-only content from the nation-wide Scout.com network.

Bear Insider staff writers visit the Insider discussion board regularly, and are available to discuss questions you may have about this article and Cal Athletics.

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