FUN WITH NUMBERS

<FONT face=Verdana color=#000080> Here's an array of other numbers from the Cal/Baylor game. People who like experimenting with stats hate blowouts because it results in all kinds of skewed numbers. Hey, if Cal keeps putting up 70 points, they can skew 'em all they want.

These numbers may not jibe completely with the box score -- for one) I tend to trust my eyes and ears, two) official box scores have been known to be wrong, three) for some of the numbers that I churn out, there's a highly subjective nature to them and I can refer back to my notes a lot easier than I can try to refer to a play-by-play (plus, I don't have to worry about tracking it down).
 
The other big difference is that I include sack yardage as passing. There will always be a handful of plays in any game when the QB goes down and it's not clear if it was a broken pass or a broken run. Rather than call everything a run, I'll exercise some judgment, but also understand that if a group of us all watched the tape, we probably wouldn't agree on everything. In the mid-70s, Cal's team rushing stats never looked that good because Bartkowski would pile up huge sack numbers on occasion which would distort things. Cal's running game was fine; it was problems with the passing game that was causing the huge sack yardage.
 
Some of these numbers are experimental -- still in need of tweaking because there's a rough idea of what I want to measure but am still working on a better way to measure them. Any input would be much appreciated.
 
FUN FACT: In the first half, Cal ran 28 of their 32 offensive plays on Baylor's side of the field. By comparison, Baylor ran only 9 of their 39 plays on Cal's side of the field
 
FIELD POSITION: Cal's average starting position was their 46, while Baylor's average start position was their 23. During the course of the game, this represented an advantage of 250 yards for Cal.
 
CRAZY EIGHTS: Cal average more than 8 yards a play on both first down and second down.
 
THE ONLY CAUSE FOR YIKES: On third-down passing situations, Baylor was 7 for 11 for 108 yards (along with one scramble for 16 yards), for a total of 7 first downs.
 
DOWNS
 

California 1st Down: 31-256 8.26 (Run: 19/80, 4.2; Pass: 12/176, 14.6)
 

California 2nd Down: 19-166, 8.74 (Run: 7/25, 3.6; Pass: 12/141, 11.8)
 

California 3rd Down: 10-35, 3.5 (Run: 2/8, 4.0; Pass: 8/27, 3.5)
 

California Total: 60-457 7.62 (Run: 28/113, 4.0; Pass: 32/340, 10.6)
 
Baylor 1st Down: 34-105, 3.09 (Run: 20/43, 2.2; Pass: 14/62, 4.4)
 

Baylor 2nd Down: 29-151, 5.21 (Run: 7/4, 0.6; Pass: 22/147, 6.7)
 

Baylor 3rd Down: 16-138, 8.63 (Run: 4/14, 3.5; Pass 12/124, 10.3)
 

Baylor Total: 79-394, 4.99 (Run: 31/61, 2.0; Pass 48/333, 6.9)
 
Comment: Even taking away Cal's opening touchdown, they still averaged more than 6 yards a play on first down. Baylor was persistent with the run on first down, but only five of 20 runs went for longer than 4 yards.
 
QUARTERS
 

California 1st quarter: 10-138, 13.8 (Run: 4/19, 4.8; Pass: 6/119, 19.8)
 

California 2nd quarter: 22-105, 4.8 (Run: 9/39, 4.3; Pass: 13/66, 5.1)
 

California 3rd quarter: 11-49, 4.4 (Run: 3/18, 6.0; Pass: 8/31, 3.9)
 

California 4th quarter: 17-165, 9.7 (Run: 12/37, 3.1; Pass: 5-128, 25.6)
 

California Total: 60-457. 7.62 (Run: 28/113, 4.0; Pass: 32/340, 10.6)
 
Baylor 1st quarter: 22-171, 7.7 (Run: 10/17, 1.7; Pass: 12/154, 12.8)
 

Baylor 2nd quarter: 18-22, 1.2 (Run: 9/21, 2.3; Pass: 9/1, 0.9)
 

Baylor 3rd quarter: 24-115, 4.8 (Run: 7/1, 0.4; Pass: 17/114, 6.7)
 

Baylor 4th quarter: 15-86, 5.7 (Run: 5/22, 4.4; Pass: 10/64, 6.4)
 

Baylor Total: 79-394, 4.99 (Run: 31/61, 2.0; Pass 48/333, 6.9)
 
Comment: For stretches of this game, Baylor had more offensive yards than Cal. This got me to thinking why the NCAA doesn't just scrap the total offense statistic and include a total yardage stat which include return yardage (interception/punts/kicks).
 
STARTING FIELD POSITION
 

California: 14 poss., avg. starting field position: 45.6
 

Baylor: 16 poss., avg. starting field position: 22.6
 
INSIDE OPPONENT'S 30
 

California: 8 poss: 6 TD, 1 FGNG, 1 punt
 

Cal scoring %: 6/8 -- 75.0
 
Baylor: 3 poss: 2 TD, 1 TO
 

Baylor scoring %: 2/3 -- 66.7%
 
Comment: Many commentators will refer to the red zone as being within the 20. But if a team's offense is within the opposition 30, it should be considered within scoring position.
 
If a team has a scoring play longer than 30 yards, it's not included in the above table.
 
QB COMPARISON
 

CAL-Boller, 26 att, 19 comp, 211 yds, 8 first downs, 2 TD, 0 INT, 1 sack for -8 yds, 27 plays for 203 yds, 7.5 avg, 37.0% success (10/27)
 

CAL-Williams, 2 att., 2 comp, 77 yds, 1 first down, 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 plays for 77 yds, 38.5 avg, 100.0% success (2/2)
 

CAL-Robertson, 2 att., 2 comp, 64 yds, 1 first down, 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 plays for 64 yds, 32.0 avg, 100.0% success (2/2)
 
BAY-Cicero, 10 att, 7 comp, 70 yds, 4 first downs, 0 TD, 3 INT, 1 sack for -1 yds, 11 plays for 69 yds, 6.3 avg, 36.4% success (4/11)
 

BAY-Karas, 27 att, 14 comp, 211 yds, 7 first downs, 1 TD, 1 int, 4 sacks for -28 yds, 31 plays for 183 yds, 5.9 avg, 26.7% success (8/30)
 

BAY-Zachry, 3 att, 3 comp, 48 yds, 2 first downs, 0 TD, 0 int, 1 scramble for 12 yds, 4 play for 60 yds, 15.0 avg, 75.0% success (3/4)
 
Comment: The success percentage is defined as (first downs (via passing or scrambling) plus touchdowns) divided by (pass attempts plus number of sacks plus number of scrambles). The idea is to measure how often a quarterback is successful in helping the team to maintain possession (via first down) or score. It's not meant to be an all-encompassing measure of a QB's effectiveness. If it were, then allowances would have to be made for interceptions, interceptions for touchdowns, sacks, and a special knucklehead factor would have to be incorporated for sacks that take a team out of field goal range.
 
INCOMPLETIONS
 

Cal total: 7
 

Pass too long/overthrown: 3
 

Pass broken up: 1
 

Pass thrown behind: 1
 

WR tripped: 1
 
Baylor total: 16
 

Intercepted: 4
 

Pass broken up: 4
 

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