Forecast: Cal vs. Oregon

OK boys and girls, how's this for a world turned upside down? My bold prediction is that if Cal wins on Saturday against Oregon, the Bears' most valuable defensive player will be Justin Forsett.

In the first four games the Cal defense has been good, very good at times, but vulnerable at others. The Oregon offense has been awesome. Look at some of the stats from the first four games.

Opponent Points Yards Interceptions Fumbles Lost
Houston
48
473
0
0
at Michigan
39
624
0
1
Fresno State
52
461
0
1
at Stanford
55
589
0
3

Let me do the math for you ... 48 points per game average ... 537 yards per game average ... 1.25 Turnovers a game.

(3 of the five turnovers came in the second quarter of the Stanford game, throw out that anomaly and the Ducks take care of the ball phenomenally well).

They move the ball. They score points. They are balanced. (44% passing yards, 56% rushing yards, even more impressive when you consider the Ducks were ahead in the first four contests and spent a lot of the second half running out the clock).

Cal's defense has shown nothing that would indicate the ability to stop such an offensive juggernaut. Slow it down, contain it enough maybe; stop it, probably not. The best course for the Bears is to keep the Oregon offense off the field. And the most effective way to do that, short of hijacking the team bus, is to run the ball.

The Oregon defense has not been stellar. Besides shutting down a shell-shocked Michigan team, others teams have moved the ball on the Ducks. Houston, not exactly a running powerhouse, ran for 315 yards (6.4 yards a carry), Stanford ran for 4.4 a carry.

It is time for Cal to put the Ferrari offense in the garage and pull out the 4X4 Hummer. The Ducks are vulnerable in their front seven, and it will be crucial for Alex Mack and company to dominate up front and let the Bear offense pound the ball.

Bear success at rushing will force Oregon to bring more people into run protection and that will open things up down the field, but Cal will have to get the first downs, and move the ball. Too many three and outs against this Oregon team will be fatal.

Inevitably the Ducks will sometimes have the ball, and that's when the Cal defense and defensive coaches will have to step up.

Zach Follett is listed as day-to-day with his neck stinger; his leadership, passion and talent would be a big help.

Up front if guys like Tyson Alualu, Derrick Hill, Cameron Jordan and some of the other youngsters want to have a break out game somewhere along the line, Saturday would be as good a time as any.

Disciplined aggression is key to defending Oregon. Quarterback Dennis Dixon is a threat both running and throwing and seems to have found a comfort zone in the Oregon offense - and a consistency to his game that was lacking in past seasons.

Cal coach Jeff Tedford is impressed with the 2007 edition of Dixon.

"Not only is he athletic, it looks like he's going with the offense, he's in his comfort-zone right now, there's no question about it. He has great weapons around him, a great offensive line -- they're running the ball very, very well -- and he has great receivers. He's such a threat because when they have the running game, they can throw the football and then he can pull it down and run; it's a very explosive offense. He really looks comfortable with what he's doing. He makes really good decisions on when to pull it down, he hasn't thrown an interception yet, and he's making great decisions. When he does pull it down, he can make you miss and that's the scary part, he's not some five-flat guy who's running with the football, when he pulls it down, he can make a lot of yards. It's a scary group."

The Ducks spread the ball around. Dixon's 11 touchdown passes are distributed among 6 targets. Jaison Williams and Cameron Colvin can exploit man coverage, while tight end Ed Dickson can occupy a defender in the middle of the field.

Oregon can slug it out too. Jonathan Stewart, Dixon and Jeremiah Johnson are averaging nearly 7 yards per carry combined, and speedy slasher Andre Crenshaw is being worked into the rotation.

It will be incumbent on Cal to play disciplined defense - and for Bob Gregory to be the first coach all year to rattle Dixon with both schemes and pressure.

It will be interesting to see if Oregon coach Mike Bellotti punts to DeSean Jackson. Arizona chose not to last week and gave Cal a short field, and it cost the Wildcats two touchdowns.

The Oregon special teams have been consistent even if not outstanding; they have not really been tested to date because (generally) the Ducks have been way ahead.

In any sport you never want to play a game that is dictated by your opponent's strengths. Cal has the talent to get in a shoot out with Oregon, and perhaps win, but that does not seem here to be the route with the best chance of success.

Shorten the game, keep the ball, and don't give up the big play. This will be a tall order against what is possibly the best offense in the country - 4 weeks into the season - but it is the road to success.

Cal 31 Oregon 23


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