Bear Intelligence, Cal vs. UCLA

This week's edition looks at the Bears uncharacteristically subpar offensive showing by quarter and down, reviews Nate Longshore's game by every possible measure and sheds some light on why it was making sense to run Forsett more in the fourth quarter.

Yardage by quarter

By their standards, Cal had one good offensive quarters and three bad ones. For a team whose offense has had several strong halves this season, few people could have predicted that the UCLA defense would be able to limit them to just 103 total yards on 30 plays. The Bruins contained the Bears rushing attack and was able to put together enough of an offensive attack to use one trick play for a touchdown, and get within range of kicker Kai Forbath's range on three tries to enable the Bruins to pull off the upset win.

  Yardage By Quarter
  CAL
  TOTAL RUN PASS
 
No.
Yds.
Avg.
No.
Yds.
Avg.
No.
Yds.
Avg.
1
14
73
5.2
5
11
2.2
9
62
6.9
2
20
125
6.3
10
12
1.2
10
113
11.3
3
16
66
4.1
7
8
1.1
9
58
6.5
4
14
37
2.6
8
36
4.5
6
1
0.6
Tot
64
301
4.7
30
67
2.2
34
234
6.8
 

UCLA

  TOTAL RUN PASS
 
No.
Yds.
Avg.
No.
Yds.
Avg.
No.
Yds.
Avg.
1
16
52
3.3
9
24
2.7
7
28
4.0
2
17
138
8.1
8
91
11.4
9
47
5.2
3
20
117
5.8
11
34
3.1
9
83
9.2
4
19
66
3.4
13
44
3.4
6
22
3.6
Tot
72
373
5.2
41
193
4.7
31
180
5.8

Yardage by Down

One common misunderstanding that came from Saturday's game is that the Bears frequently ran on 1st and 2nd down and found themselves faced in long passing situations on third down. That situation happened exactly twice on Saturday, once in the 2nd quarter, when a 4-yard draw play on 2nd-and-13, put the Bears on a 3rd-and-9. The other time was early in the 4th quarter, when the Bears ran on 2nd-and-18 for 0 yards, leaving them in 3rd-and-18. The possession after that, the Bears ran Forsett twice, but were on a 3rd-and-3, which wasn't a long-yardage situation. The following possession, the Bears ran Forsett twice and were left with a 3rd-and-5. Keep in mind that Forsett had been running well in the fourth quarter up to that point, with 8 carries for 36 yards, and there were signs that the offensive line was starting to assert itself a little.

UCLA's rushing yards are distorted by Kahlil Bell's 64-yard run. Otherwise, it was generally four yards and a cloud of dust for the Bruins ground game.

 

Yardage By Down

 

CAL

  TOTAL RUN PASS
 
No.
Yds.
Avg.
No.
Yds.
Avg.
No.
Yds.
Avg.
1
27
138
5.1
14
16
1.2
13
122
9.4
2
21
54
2.6
14
39
2.8
7
15
2.2
3
15
109
7.3
2
12
6.0
13
97
7.5
4
1
0
0.0
--
--
--
1
0
0.0
Tot
64
301
4.7
30
67
2.3
34
234
6.9
 

UCLA

  TOTAL RUN PASS
 
No.
Yds.
Avg.
No.
Yds.
Avg.
No.
Yds.
Avg.
1
32
224
7.0
24
150
6.3
8
74
9.2
2
24
84
3.5
13
27
2.1
11
57
5.2
3
15
62
4.1
3
13
4.3
12
49
4.1
4
1
3
3.0
1
3
3.0
--
--
--
Tot
72
373
5.2
41
193
4.7
31
180
5.8

Quarterback Comparison

Longshore had a very good success percentage of 35.3% - he was able to complete a high percentage of passes and keep the ball moving downfield. While additional charts below will break down his performance by quarter and down, his play was generally solid up until the fourth quarter. Although he was without Robert Jordan, he was able to consistently find DeSean Jackson for one of Jackson's better games as a Bear. His success percentage is offset by his three interceptions. While Longshore's success percentage exceeded Patrick Cowan's by nearly 10 percentage points, Cowan ended up having the preferable day because he didn't throw three interceptions.

Quarterback Analysis
  Longshore, CAL Cowan, UCLA Breazell, UCLA
Succ. %
35.3%
26.7%
100%
TP
34
30
1
FD+TD
12
8
1
TP
34
30
1
Yds.
234
151
29
Avg.
6.8
5.0
29.0
Att.
34
26
1
Co.
23
17
1
Pct.
67.6
65.4
100.0
Yds.
234
152
29
FD
9
7
0
TD
3
1
1
Int.
3
0
0
Sacks/Scram
 
Pl
--
4
--
Yds
--
-1
--

Table Notes: The Success Percentage attempts to measure a QB's effectiveness by looking at how often a quarterback achieves a successful result (a first down (by passing or running) or touchdown) out of all pass plays attempted. Current QB rating methodology does not include either sacks or scrambles - this rewards QBs taking sacks instead of throwing incompletions. In addition, QB rating formulas reward the eight-yard pass on 3rd-and-12 (i.e., it's a completion, it's not an interception, and there's an above average yardage gain). Key: Succ.% - Touchdowns + First Downs/Total Plays, TP - pass attempts + sacks + scrambles, FD - first downs, TD - touchdowns, Yds - Yards, Avg - Average, Att. - Attempts, Co. - Completions, Pct. - Completion %, Int - Interceptions, Pl. - Plays)

What stands out here is Longshore's unproductive fourth quarter. His passing numbers were terrific in the 2nd an 3rd quarters, with a 50% of better success percentage in both quarters. Even his first quarter, which had a success percentage of just 22.2%, he completed nearly 90% of his passes and averaged nearly seven yards a play, which is outstanding for first down. However, in the fourth quarter, he was 1-of-6 for 1 yard. He did a 15-yard completion to Hawkins that was nullified by a holding penalty.

In the fourth quarter, he threw a screen pass on 3rd-and-1 from the Cal 20, the interception to Verner from a 3rd-and-5 on the UCLA 30, and three incompletes and an interception on the four passes following Verner's touchdown with the Bears down nine, 30-21.

Longshore quarter-by-quarter
 
1st Quarter
2nd Quarter
3rd Quarter
4th Quarter
Succ. %
22.2%
50.0%
55.6%
0%
TP
9
10
9
6
FD+TD
2
5
5
0
TP
9
10
9
6
Yds.
62
113
58
1
Avg.
6.9
11.3
6.5
0.2
Att.
9
10
9
6
Co.
8
9
5
1
Pct.
88.9%
90.0%
55.6%
16.7%
Yds.
62
113
58
1
FD
1
4
4
0
TD
1
1
1
0
Int
0
0
1
2
 
Sacks/Scram
 
Pl.
--
--
--
--
Yds.
--
--
--
--

 

Longshore did very well on first downs (38.5% success percentage) and third down (46.2% success percentage), although his third down totals are tempered by his two interceptions. In both situations, he had a good completion percentage and was able to keep the ball moving forward, either by first downs or touchdowns. Oddly, he was substantially less successful on second down. While he had a high completion percentage, he averaged just three yards a completion.

Longshore by down
 
1st Down
2nd Down
3rd Down
4th Down
Succ. %
38.5%
14.2%
46.2%
0%
TP
13
7
13
1
FD+TD
5
1
6
0
TP
13
7
13
1
Yds.
122
15
97
0
Avg.
9.4
2.2
7.5
0
Att.
13
7
13
1
Co.
11
5
7
0
Pct.
84.6%
71.4%
53.8%
0%
Yds.
122
15
97
0
FD
4
1
4
0
TD
1
0
2
0
Int
0
0
2
1
 
Sacks/Scram
Pl.
--
--
--
--
Yds.
--
--
--
--

 

Jahvid Best

Best was hurt considerably by his second quarter fumble, where he was saddled with a 12-yard loss. His three-carry, -6-yard card, lowers his season average to 8.6, which puts him behind Charlie Sarver's school record of 9.9 yards. To make another run at the record, he'll have to break a long run or two during the next few weeks.

 
Year
Carries
Yds
Avg.
vs. Colorado St.
2007
2
73
36.5
vs. Tennessee
2007
4
46
11.5
vs. Louisiana Tech
2007
3
27
9.0
vs. Arizona
2007
4
15
3.8
vs. Oregon
2007
3
6
2.0
vs. Oregon St.
2007
1
11
11.0
vs. UCLA
2007
3
-6
-2.0
Total
20
172
8.6
 
Charlie Sarver
1949
32
317
9.9
Marshawn Lynch
2004
71
628
8.8
Justin Forsett
2005
132
999
7.6

Justin Forsett

UCLA did an terrific job of containing Cal's running game and the Bears never really got untracked. Unlike the previous game when Forsett's productivity declined as the game went on, his best quarter was the fourth quarter as he had 8 carries for 36 yards.

The Bruins did a good job of containing him on first and second downs, limiting to a 2.8 average on each of those downs. Even on those rare plays when Forsett broke through the first line of defense, the Bruin defense was quick enough to get to him before he could chew up another 10 to 15 yards.

By Down   By Quarter
No.
Yds.
Avg.
No.
Yds.
Avg.
11
31
2.8
1
4
7
1.8
12
33
2.8
2
8
25
3.5
2
12
6.0
3
5
8
1.6
--
--
--
4
8
36
4.5
25
76
3.0
tot
25
76
3.0

Big Plays

Cal's defense did a good job of limiting UCLA's offense from getting big plays. These numbers are in line with what the defense has generally done all year - with the opponents having about 10 to 15% of their plays go for 10 yards or small, and an equally small percentage (5% to 8%) of offensive plays going for 20 or more yards.

The Bears usually have about 15 to 20% of their plays go for more than 10 yards, but had just three plays go for 20 yards or more.

 
10 yards or more
20 yards or more
California
12/64 (18.7%)
3/64 (4.7%)
UCLA
8/72 (11.1%)
4/72 (5.5%)

Starting Field Position

The starting field position between the two teams was essentially even - what caused the results to skew were UCLA's two late interceptions that helped the Bruin defense going from what would have be a -62 to a +116.

The Bears had a first-half edge thanks to a long kickoff return by Lavelle Hawkins and the turnover caused when Worrell Williams stripped Joe Cowan and the ball went rolling back into Bruin territory.


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