Preview: Cal vs. WashState

The Bears have finally hit bottom - we hope. The upcoming game against Washington State at Memorial Stadium (7:00 pm Saturday) will tell.

The Oregon State game seemed like just a stumble, the UCLA game seemed like an anomaly, and Cal fans chanted their mantra: "If only for a couple of plays."

But then the Arizona State debacle brought the illusions crashing down. In the one game where the Bears needed an inspired performance, in the game with their backs against the wall, they came up empty. They lost on offense, defense, special teams and coaching.

[There are reports that Sparky the Sun Devil outperformed Oski, and that the ASU cheerleaders won the battle with Cal, but those reports are unconfirmed.]

Now Cal gets just the tonic it needs. The conference's worst road team comes to Memorial Stadium. If Cal comes up flat here, it will be time to pack it in and gear up for the hoops campaign.

With all due respect to Charles Dickens, the Washington State Cougars (this week's guest star in the ongoing movie spectacular, "From the Sugar Bowl to the Vegas Bowl in 15 days") are a "Tale of Two Teams."

The Cougs are a solid unit in Pullman and awful away from it.

Wazzu arrives in Berkeley with a 3-5 record overall, 1-4 in the Pac-10. All three wins were at home; the only home loss was a close (20-23) one to Pac-10 leader Arizona State. In contrast, the four road losses have been by an average of 32 points, including a four touchdown pounding at the hands of a weak Arizona team.

The diamond in the dung heap of Washington State's season is their 27-7 win last week over UCLA. That victory may have had more to do with a Bruin letdown after their win over Cal (and the loss to injury of two important team members) than a resurgence in the Palouse.

Offensively, the Cougars rely on their air attack. They are averaging 296 yards passing per game as against 129 rushing. Of course, some of that imbalance is due to WSU trailing in so many contests and abandoning the run game.

Senior quarterback Alex Brink (#10) is experienced, having been a starter since his freshman season. He has completed nearly 2/3 of his passing attempts and has thrown just 10 interceptions against 19 touchdowns (all games) - and that despite consistently throwing against defenses that knew he was going to pass.

Wide outs Brandon Gibson (#4) and Michael Bumpus (#5) are Brink's primary targets. Gibson has been the go-to guy in scoring territory - he has scored seven of the team's nineteen receiving touchdowns.

If the Cal front seven cannot get to Brink, this duo will get open and Brink will get them the ball. It is vital that the Bears' defense get some push up front; Cal's loss of Rulon Davis for at least two weeks will not help. The kind of pass rush seen in the last three weeks will signal a long day for Cal's defensive backs.

When the Cougars do run, Dwight Tardy (#31), a solid but unspectacular ball carrier, carries the load, averaging 74 yards per game. If Tardy is racking up big yardage, the Bear defense will have officially hit bottom.

Defensively, the only team that did not move the ball on Washington State was UCLA. Lowly Idaho put up 28 points and over 300 yards against the Cougars.

Washington State's defensive rankings paint a stark picture:

 
YPG
Pac-10 Rank
NCAA Rank
Rushing Defense
153.3
8
62
Pass Defense
271.3
10
104
Pass Defense Efficiency
148.5
10
112
Total Defense
425.0
8
87
Scoring Defense
33.13
9
99

The Cal rushing attack must execute in three phases. First the offensive linemen must hit and maintain their blocks, then move onto the second level quickly against the Cougar's newly installed 3-4 defense. Cal can, should and must win this match-up. They are better than the WSU front seven, they have to go out and show it.

Second, the backs must (as always) hit the holes fast and run north and south with purpose. Whether a recently hobbled Justin Forsett will be up to this is a key worry for Cal fans.

Finally, the coaching staff has to work on run calls that get the defense leaning the wrong way every so often. This writer says that the "Here's what we are going to run, come and stop us," attitude has to change.

Simply put, if the Bears cannot run on this team, the Bears cannot run on anyone.

When passing, Cal will have to key on two players. Sophomore linebacker Andy Mattingly (#45) is a strong pass rusher who finds gaps from his weak side slot, and free safety Husain Abdullah (#23) is leading the team in interceptions. Cal has the weapons to scheme away from these two and to open up opportunities elsewhere, but …

Simply put, if the Bears cannot pass on this team, the Bears cannot pass on anyone.

Special teams for both sides have been inconsistent. Cal holds a definite advantage in the punting battle (averaging 41.1 vs. 36.0 yards), but coach Tedford and company are undoubtedly hoping it does not come down to a field goal (Cal is 50%, WSU 57% in conference play)

A 9-3 record is still a possibility for Cal. A win Saturday, a win over USC, followed by mopping up against lowly Washington (2-6 overall, 0-5 Pac-10) and Stanford (3-5 overall, 2-4 Pac-10), will keep the season respectable, but it has to start against the Cougars.

Like last week, this week is a test of Cal's mental toughness. Last week did not turn out so well; Cal fans hope the cozy confines of Strawberry Canyon improve Cal's fortunes this week.

Cal will win this one 38-21.

=====

By The Numbers

Rank in the National Top 25: (all games)

Washington State:

Total Offense - Alex Brink - #13
Receiving Yards - Brandon Gibson - #21
Passing completions: Alex Brink - #11
Passing Yards per Game - Alex Bring - #11
Sacks Per Game - Andy Mattingly - #13
Passing Offense - Washington State - #13

Cal:

None.

Areas of Statistical Difference (Pac-10 games)

(Other Pac-10 stats for the two teams are similar enough to not warrant quoting.)

 
Cal
WSU
Measure
Scoring Offense:
27.5
17.6*
points
Scoring Defense:
29.0
35.6*
points
Pass Defense:
238.0
274.0
yards
Punting:
41.1
36.0
yards
Rushing Offense:
122.3
110.8
yards
Rushing Defense:
139.3
164.0
yards
Total Defense:
377.5
438.0
yards
Pass Efficiency:
124.9
111.1
index
Sacks Against:
5
9
count
Pass Defense Efficiency:
122.6
160.0*
index
Sacks By:
9*
13
count
Penalties Against:
73.2*
56.4
yards
Red Zone Offense:
76.2*
73.3*
% scoring
Red Zone Defense:
78.1
90.9*
% scored upon

* Amongst worst in conference


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