Big Game Prediction: Cal 38-17

Well, there are Big Games, and there are (lower case) big games, and Saturday is both. The Bears and the Cardinal both have a lot on the line. Beyond the rivalry bragging rights, which go a lot farther with the fans than with the players and coaches, Cal has to win to salvage a bowl berth and some dignity in a season that can be described as disappointing only via understatement.

Stanford would like to end Cal's streak (five games) and Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh has never (yet) lost to Cal. The Cardinal is also trying to build on the three wins they already have including the upset of USC. Wins against Cal and SC in the same season would be a decent springboard for recruiting and confidence building.

Cal is a 13-point favorite, and physically the superior team. They come into the game as healthy as they have been a while, and if they play to their abilities the Bears win easy.

Other than their one shining moment against USC, the Cardinal has been, at best, inconsistent. They are last in scoring offense, eighth in scoring defense in the Pac-10, and have no real identity as a team. They have given up huge points to Oregon and Arizona State. They are not a defensive team, they are not a running team, and they are not a passing team.

Anthony Kimble is the Cardinal's leading rusher despite missing four games due to injury. The senior has rushed for 509 yards on 115 carries for a respectable 4.4 yards per carry. However, if his longest run (60 yards) is deducted, and that average drops below four yards. If Kimble is slowed at the line of scrimmage, his productivity drops way off.

So Cal will work hard to make good reads and control the point of attack - and they've put renewed focus on that in recent practices. After Kimble, Jeremy Stewart, Tyrone McGraw and Jason Evans have carried the ball, but have distinguished themselves.

The passing game poses an important question mark in Palo Alto. It is unclear whether T.C. Ostrander or Tavita Pritchard will start at quarterback. Each has had physical and effectiveness issues through the season. Pritchard is gutsy, quick, and makes big plays, but too many of those have been big plays for his opponent as his 4/9 interception to TD ratio indicates.

Cal fans are familiar with Ostrander; he is a sack waiting to happen. The man never found a pass rush he could avoid. Add the fact that Stanford lacks a "go to" receiver, and the Cardinal passing game has issues.

Richard Sherman, Mark Bradford, Evan More and Ben Ladner have been effective at times catching the ball, but none is the type of player Cal has to scheme for defensively.

The key for Cal is - as it has always been - the pass rush and the run defense. If Cal's offense can help out by keeping the defense off the field, and by putting up some points to negate Stanford's running game, Cal defense should be able to dominate the Cardinal offense.

On offense it is back to basics week. There is no real threat from the identity of the Stanford defense. If Cal plays well they win - but the same was true vs. Washington.

If they play mediocre, they can probably still pull out a win. But if they return to the turnover patterns of recent weeks, even this game against one of the league's worst teams could turn into a miasma of despair for Cal fans.

But let's be positive. If Cal wins the battle up front the rest falls into place. The Bears' skill players are substantially better if they are given opportunities to demonstrate that. A basic game plan, a lack of mistakes, and the ability to take advantage of mismatches are the road map to a big day for the Cal offense.

Cal holds a big advantage in special teams. Jackson (if he plays) and Hawkins and even Hampton are better returners than anyone Stanford can counter with. Jay Ottovegio and Andrew Larson are statistical clones in the punting department, each averaging over 41 yards per kick.

The biggest disparity is in field goal kicking. Jordan Kay seems to have gotten out of his left-upright slump and has hit on his last 6 attempts. Stanford's Derek Belch - on the other hand - has missed 7 of his last 9 attempts and is just over 50% for the year (13-24).

Stanford is better than they were last year, but that's not saying much. Being worse would be almost a mathematical impossibility.

This contest is in Cal's hands. They can prove they are the 5-0 team we loved at the beginning of October and take this game and their Emerald or other bowl bid and move on --- or they can fall to 6-6 and spend the off season doing a great deal of soul searching and regrouping.

Choice A seems a bit more like fun. Cal fans will see on Saturday how effective coach Tedford's off week "mini camp" and butt chewing after the Washington game were.

Prediction: Cal 38 Stanford 17


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Stanford would like to end Cal's streak (five games) and Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh has never (yet) lost to Cal. The Cardinal is also trying to build on the three wins they already have including the upset of USC. Wins against Cal and SC in the same season would be a decent springboard for recruiting and confidence building.

Cal is a 13-point favorite, and physically the superior team. They come into the game as healthy as they have been a while, and if they play to their abilities the Bears win easy.

Other than their one shining moment against USC, the Cardinal has been, at best, inconsistent. They are last in scoring offense, eighth in scoring defense in the Pac-10, and have no real identity as a team. They have given up huge points to Oregon and Arizona State. They are not a defensive team, they are not a running team, and they are not a passing team.

Anthony Kimble is the Cardinal's leading rusher despite missing four games due to injury. The senior has rushed for 509 yards on 115 carries for a respectable 4.4 yards per carry. However, if his longest run (60 yards) is deducted, and that average drops below four yards. If Kimble is slowed at the line of scrimmage, his productivity drops way off.

So Cal will work hard to make good reads and control the point of attack - and they've put renewed focus on that in recent practices. After Kimble, Jeremy Stewart, Tyrone McGraw and Jason Evans have carried the ball, but have distinguished themselves.

The passing game poses an important question mark in Palo Alto. It is unclear whether T.C. Ostrander or Tavita Pritchard will start at quarterback. Each has had physical and effectiveness issues through the season. Pritchard is gutsy, quick, and makes big plays, but too many of those have been big plays for his opponent as his 4/9 interception to TD ratio indicates.

Cal fans are familiar with Ostrander; he is a sack waiting to happen. The man never found a pass rush he could avoid. Add the fact that Stanford lacks a \"go to\" receiver, and the Cardinal passing game has issues.

Richard Sherman, Mark Bradford, Evan More and Ben Ladner have been effective at times catching the ball, but none is the type of player Cal has to scheme for defensively.

The key for Cal is - as it has always been - the pass rush and the run defense. If Cal's offense can help out by keeping the defense off the field, and by putting up some points to negate Stanford's running game, Cal defense should be able to dominate the Cardinal offense.

On offense it is back to basics week. There is no real threat from the identity of the Stanford defense. If Cal plays well they win - but the same was true vs. Washington.

If they play mediocre, they can probably still pull out a win. But if they return to the turnover patterns of recent weeks, even this game against one of the league's worst teams could turn into a miasma of despair for Cal fans.

But let's be positive. If Cal wins the battle up front the rest falls into place. The Bears' skill players are substantially better if they are given opportunities to demonstrate that. A basic game plan, a lack of mistakes, and the ability to take advantage of mismatches are the road map to a big day for the Cal offense.

Cal holds a big advantage in special teams. Jackson (if he plays) and Hawkins and even Hampton are better returners than anyone Stanford can counter with. Jay Ottovegio and Andrew Larson are statistical clones in the punting department, each averaging over 41 yards per kick.

The biggest disparity is in field goal kicking. Jordan Kay seems to have gotten out of his left-upright slump and has hit on his last 6 attempts. Stanford's Derek Belch - on the other hand - has missed 7 of his last 9 attempts and is just over 50% for the year (13-24).

Stanford is better than they were last year, but that's not saying much. Being worse would be almost a mathematical impossibility.

This contest is in Cal's hands. They can prove they are the 5-0 team we loved at the beginning of October and take this game and their Emerald or other bowl bid and move on --- or they can fall to 6-6 and spend the off season doing a great deal of soul searching and regrouping.

Choice A seems a bit more like fun. Cal fans will see on Saturday how effective coach Tedford's off week \"mini camp\" and butt chewing after the Washington game were.

Prediction: Cal 38 Stanford 17


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