WBB plus/minus vs. Arizona

Just when it looked like there wouldn't be a plus/minus for the Cal/Arizona game, Cal media relations comes through with the play-by-play. In addition to Saturday's plus/minus, there are also combined charts covering both Arizona games. And for you Rama N'Diaye fans, there's lots of good reading...

California 66, Arizona 45

Player Min +Pts -Pts Pts Reb Ast Diff
Alexis Gray-Lawson 35 63 37 19 5 4 +26
Lauren Greif 32 57 35 4 2 7 +22
Rama N'Diaye 23 33 13 6 9 0 +20
Ashley Walker 29 53 35 10 6 1 +18
Natasha Vital 32 53 38 9 3 3 +15
Kelsey Adrian 16 24 17 7 2 1 +7
Devanei Hampton 21 39 33 10 4 0 +6
Shantrell Sneed 5 3 8 1 0 0 -5

With Stanford's win over Arizona State on Sunday, the California Golden Bears' women's basketball team finds itself with a two-game lead going into this Saturday's game against the Cardinal.  With the Bears having to play Stanford, Arizona State and the Los Angeles schools at home during the second half of the conference season, Cal is in excellent position with the Pac-10 conference title.

One of the most encouraging signs for the Bears is the gradual return to form of Alexis Gray-Lawson.  After having missed most of last season with an ACL injury, Gray-Lawson had yet to show the flashes of dominance that she had during her freshman year, when she'd single-handedly take over games or when she'd hit a backbreaking shot late in the shot clock after the opposing defense had played well during most of a possession.  It's a sign of her versatility of her game that she's been able to contribute without having big scoring games, whether it's through her ballhandling, her passing, and at times even her rebounding.  Gray-Lawson hit five of six three-point shots while leading the team with 19 points during Saturday's 66-45 win over Arizona.   Don't look for Gray-Lawson to be intimidated by Maples Pavilion this Saturday either. As a freshman, she scored 30 points against the Cardinal in an 87-75 game that was very close until the final minutes.

Now most of you are probably used to looking at plus/minus charts, but go back up to Rama N'Diaye's numbers and see if you notice anything strange.  While the +20 is nice, it's not extraordinarily unusual.  The six points and nine rebounds are very good for somebody who played a little more than half the game.  Now look at the -Pts column, or points against.  Look at that 13, look at everybody else's entries in that line, then look at their minutes total.

In the 23 minutes that N'Diaye played, the Bears gave up just 13 points.   Over a 40-minute period, that equates to less than 23 points.  In other words, the Wildcat offense ran into a dead stop when she was in the game.  If you take into consideration that eight of those points game in garbage time during the final 6:13, it means that in the 14:18 that she played when the game's outcome was in doubt, Arizona scored five points.

By comparison, in the other non-N'Diaye 17 minutes, Arizona scored 32 points, which equates to 75 points over a 40-minute period. 

On Saturday, the Bears were at their best when N'Diaye was grouped with Vital, Greif, Gray-Lawson, and Walker (+15) and Grief, Adrian, Gray-Lawson, and Hampton (+7). Those two combinations were on the court for a combined 9:39 during which they outscored Arizona 23-1.

After having a string of solid games from Ashley Walker, the Bears showed that they could win two games on the road without getting big games from Walker. Hampton stepped up with a career-high 28 against Arizona State, and although Arizona kept Hampton and Walker from having big games, Gray-Lawson's three-point shooting and the Bear defense still allowed them to record a 21-point win.

First vs. Second Half (minimum 2 minutes)

First Half Top - Rama N'Diaye - 9-0, +9
Second Half Top - Alexis Gray-Lawson - 34-13, +21

First Half Bottom - Kelsey Adrian - 6-6, 0
Second Half Bottom - Rachelle Federico - 3-8, -5

Difference Makers

With Alexis Gray-Lawson in 35 minutes - 63-37, +26
Without Gray-Lawson in 5 minutes - 3-8, -5

With Lauren Greif in 32 minutes - 57-35, +22
Without Greif in 8 minutes - 9-10, -1

With Rama N'Diaye in 23 minutes - 33-13, +20
Without N'Diaye in 17 minutes - 33-32, +1

Lineups

Starting lineup
Vital, Greif, Gray-Lawson, Hampton and Walker in 14:37 - 23-25, -2
All N'Diaye lineups in 20:29 - 33-13, +20
All other lineups in 3:54 - 10-7, +3

N'Diaye lineups:

N'Diaye with:

Vital, Greif, Gray-Lawson, Walker 6:37 16-1, +15
Greif, Adrian, Hampton, Gray-Lawson 3:02 7-0, +7
Vital, Federico, Adrian, Walker 2:49 0-2, -2
Vital, Greif, Hampton, Gray-Lawson 2:30 3-2, +1
Vital, Adrian, Gray-Lawson, Walker 2:17 4-2, +2
Greif, Federico, Adrian, Walker 2:17 3-6,-3
Greif, Adrian, Gray-Lawson, Walker 0:57 0-0, 0
TOTAL 20:29 33-13, +20

Contribution Evaluation

Player Minutes Expected Actual Difference
N'Diaye 23 +12.08 +20 +7.92
Gray-Lawson 25 +18.37 +26 +7.63
Greif 32 +16.80 +22 +5.20
Walker 29 +15.23 +18 +2.77
Adrian 16 +8.40 +7 -1.40
Vital 32 +16.80 +15 -1.80
Hampton 21 +10.50 +6 -4.50
Federico 5 +2.62 -5 -7.62
Sneed 7 +3.67 -4 -7.67

Description: This stat measures the significance of a player's contribution to the team's effort. If a team wins by 10 points, and a player plays in half of the team's minutes, his expected contribution would be a +5. For example, when Cal defeated Grambling by 19 points. Brian Wethers played 28 minutes or 70% of the game. If we multiply 70% x +19, Wethers' expected contribution would be a +13.30. But for the game he was a +26, so his net for the game for a +12.70. In a perfect team situation, if everyone contributed equally, the difference column would consist of a row of zeros.

Weekend combined

With Arizona State making this past weekend one of the tougher conference road trip, it's impressive that the Bears were able to sweep both teams without getting a big game from Walker.  The Bears jumped on Arizona State early 16-0, and kept the Sun Devils at bay the rest of the way.  Against Arizona, the Bears used a 11-3 run late in the first half to take a five-point halftime lead, then opened the second half with a 19-8 run to effectively finish the game.

While N'Diaye's numbers were astounding against Arizona, they weren't all that much different against Arizona State.  The Sun Devils averaged just 0.84 points per minute when she was in (34 points/40 minute pace), but 1.48 points per minute (59 points/40 minute pace) when she was out.

Player Min +Pts -Pts Pts Reb Ast Diff
Alexis Gray-Lawson 73 123 80 27 10 10 +43
Lauren Greif 62 110 68 9 6 10 +42
Natasha Vital 70 111 85 15 6 9 +26
Ashley Walker 61 107 82 23 13 5 +25
Rama N'Diaye 36 48 24 6 15 0 +24
Devanei Hampton 55 96 77 38 13 1 +19
Kelsey Adrian 20 32 25 7 3 1 +7
Rachelle Federico 5 3 8 1 0 0 -5
Shantrell Sneed 18 20 31 4 2 1 -11
80 130 96 +34

Difference Makers

With Alexis Gray-Lawson in 73 minutes - 123-80, +43
Without Gray-Lawson in 7 minutes - 7-16, -9

With Lauren Greif in 62 minutes - 110-68, +42
Without Greif in 18 minutes - 20-28, -8

With Rama N'Diaye in 36 minutes - 48-24, +24
Without N'Diaye in 44 minutes - 82-72, +10

Starting lineup
Vital, Greif, Gray-Lawson, Hampton, and Walker in 30:46 - 59-40, +19
All N'Diaye lineups in 33:49 - 48-24, +24
All other lineups in 15:25 - 23-32, -9

(Note: N'Diaye's numbers appear irregular because the official stat keepers round up for each half.  For consistency's sake, we use the official box score numbers for the plus/minus charts.  However, when computing line-ups, we use numbers taken from the play-by-play. The stat crews that keep the play-by-play routinely round up after every half.  Since there's no reason to round the numbers, we use whatever totals we arrive will include the minutes and the seconds.  Thus, while the official box scores would show that N'Diaye played 36 minutes, a closer scrutinization of the play-by-play shows that she played 33:49.)


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