Plus/minus: MBB vs. UW, WBB vs USC

With the men's team's 79-75 win over Washington and the women's team's 60-55 overtime victory over USC, it was the first time both teams recorded conference sweeps on the same weekend the same weekend. In the men's game, Eric Vierneisel, Jordan Wilkes, Jerome Randle, and Patrick Christopher led the Bears in plus/minus, while for the women, Alexis Gray-Lawson led the way.

Men's:  California 79, Washington 75

People who have reason to hate the plus/minus statistic will have all the more reason to howl after looking at the California-Washington box. As a cautionary note, the plus/minus is a measure to be taken into consideration in evaluating a player's effectiveness, but it is the ultimate, perfect measure.  You wouldn't take plus/minus as a sole indicator of how well a player might have played any more than you would take points or assists or blocked shots as a singular measure of how someone did.

To see Eric Vierneisel, Jordan Wilkes, and Jerome Randle atop this chart is bound to have some people nodding their heads in disagreement, but it's indisputable that they played critical roles when the Bears were playing well.  In a game where both teams had leads and lost them, there were enough small runs by both teams, that there were ample opportunities to have seen their numbers take a leap up or down.

There was one key stretch midway in the second half when the Bears turned a 52-49 deficit into a 59-56 lead with a Randle, Vierneisel, Christopher, Wilkes and Anderson lineup, and then extended it to 72-67 with Randle, Boykin, Vierneisel, Christopher, and Anderson. 

During Vierneisel's 26 minutes, the Bears averaged 2.38 points per minute on offense, roughly a 95 point/40 minute pace, which is considerably better than the 1.21 point per minute rate (or roughly 48 point/40 minute) pace.

Jordan Wilkes had one of his better efforts of the season. Despite not scoring, he grabbed four rebounds and had two assists after coming in for Harper Kamp, who had come in for Jamal Boykin.  When he entered the game with 13:11 left, the Bears were trailing 51-46.  By the time he left, with 9:01 left, the Bears were up three, 59-56.

While Ryan Anderson would appear to have another Pac 10 Player of the Week award wrapped up with his 60-point weekend that resulted in two road wins including one over a top 10 tam, he'll be up against stiff competition since the Kevin Love-Arizona game was on ESPN.  The rare Pac 10 game on ESPN quickly evolved into Stalkervision as countless segments began with, "For more on Kevin Love..."

Player Min +Pts -Pts Pts Reb Ast Diff
Eric Vierneisel 26 62 47 4 4 0 +15
Jordan Wilkes 7 13 5 0 4 2 +8
Jerome Randle 35 70 64 16 2 4 +6
Patrick Christopher 38 79 73 20 5 0 +6
Ryan Anderson 40 79 75 33 17 0 +4
Nican Robinson 5 4 5 0 0 0 -1
Harper Kamp 13 29 32 4 1 2 -3
Jamal Boykin 22 40 44 2 6 1 -4
Nikola Knezevic 14 19 30 0 0 0 -11

First vs. Second Half (minimum 2 minutes)

First Half Top - Jerome Randle - 26-25, +1
Second Half Top - Eric Vierneisel - 43-29, +14

First Half Bottom - Nikola Knezevic - 4-14, -10
Second Half Bottom - Harper Kamp - 16-18, -2

Difference Makers

With Eric Vierneisel in 26 minutes - 62-47, +15
Without Vierneisel in 14 minutes - 17-28, -11

With Jordan Wilkes in 7 minutes - 13-5, +8
Without Wilkes in 33 minutes - 66-70, -4

With Jamal Boykin in 22 minutes - 40-44, -4
Without Boykin in 18 minutes - 39-31, +8

With Nikola Knezevic in 14 minutes - 19-30, -11
Without Knezevic in 26 minutes - 60-45, +15

Lineups

Starting lineup
Randle, Christopher, Vierneisel, Boykin and Anderson  in 10:41 - 24-17, +7
Randle, Christopher, Vierneisel, Wilkes and Anderson in 3:00 - 10-4, +6
All other lineups in 26:19 - 45-54, -9

Randle/Knezevic/Robinson lineups:

For a brief moment, the Bears experimented with a very small line up with Randle, Knezevic, and Nican Robinson along with Anderson and Kamp.  While Robinson saw some additional time alongside Randle in the first half, for the most part the Bears went with either Randle, Knezevic, or sometimes both in the backcourt.  Of the five combinations, the only one where the Bears had any extended success was with Randle, who helped the team to a +14 when he was on the court. 

Lineup with three:

Randle, Knezevic and Robinson lineups 1:48 0-2, -2
  1:48 0-2, -2

Lineups with two:

Randle and Knezevic lineups 6:31 10-17, -7
Randle and Robinson lineups 3:23 4-3, +1
TOTAL 9:54 14-20, -6

Lineups with one:

Randle lineups 22:29 56-42, +14
Knezevic lineups 5:49 9-11, -2
TOTAL 28:18 65-53, +12

 

Contribution Evaluation       

Player Minutes Expected Actual Difference
Vierneisel 26 +2.60 +15 +12.40
Wilkes 7 +0.70 +8 +7.30
Randle 35 +3.50 +6 +2.50
Christopher 38 +3.80 +6 +2.20
Anderson 40 +4.00 +4 0
Robinson 5 +0.50 -1 -1.50
Kamp 13 +1.30 -3 -4.30
Boykin 22 +2.20 -4 -6.20
Knezevic 14 +1.40 -11 -12.40

Description: This stat measures the significance of a player's contribution to the team's effort. If a team wins by 10 points, and a player plays in half of the team's minutes, his expected contribution would be a +5. For example, when Cal defeated Grambling by 19 points. Brian Wethers played 28 minutes or 70% of the game. If we multiply 70% x +19, Wethers' expected contribution would be a +13.30. But for the game he was a +26, so his net for the game for a +12.70. In a perfect team situation, if everyone contributed equally, the difference column would consist of a row of zeros.

Weekend combined

Vierneisel was an outstanding +22 for the weekend, which is quite an accomplishment considering the Bears won both games by a combined nine points.   During his 59 minutes of court action, the Bears outscored the opposition 125-103, while they were outcored 36-23 during the 21 minutes that he didn't play.  Another way to look at is that the Bears averaged 2.12 points per minute (84.8 point/40 minute pace) with Verneisel playing, but about half of that - 1.09 points per minute (41.4 point/40 minute pace) when he was on the bench.

A more salient comparison would be for Anderson.  When he's in the game, in addition to scoring nearly 45% of the team's points, the Bear offense averages 1.97 points per minute (78 point/40 minute pace), but their efficiency plummets to 1.00 point per minute (40 point/40 minute pace) during those rare moments when he rests.

Looking at the backcourt combinations with Randle, Knezevic and Robinson, for better or for worse, the Bears are at their best when just Randle is in there.   Although the Bears were effective with Knezevic on Thursday, he wasn't able to play with the same level of effectiveness on Saturday.  During the 46:35 that Randle was in, the Bears were a +10, but during the 33:25 involving all other possible combinations, Cal was -1. 

Player Min +Pts -Pts Pts Reb Ast Diff
Eric Vierneisel 59 125 103 13 4 2 +22
Ryan Anderson 70 138 127 60 26 1 +11
Patrick Christopher 73 135 128 36 10 1 +7
Jerome Randle 72 130 126 21 5 7 +4
Jordan Wilkes 11 15 12 0 4 2 +3
Jamal Boykin 53 94 92 14 13 4 +2
Nican Robinson 5 4 5 0 0 0 -1
Harper Kamp 27 52 53 4 2 4 -1
Nikola Knezevic 30 47 49 0 1 1 -2
80 148 139 +9

Randle/Knezevic/Robinson lineups:

Lineup with three:

Randle, Knezevic and Robinson lineups 1:48 0-2, -2
  1:48 0-2, -2

Lineups with two:

Randle and Knezevic lineups 19:09 29-34, -5
Randle and Robinson lineups 3:23 4-3, +1
TOTAL 22:32 33-37, -4

Lineups with one:

Randle lineups 46:35 97-87, +10
Knezevic lineups 9:05 18-13, -5
TOTAL 55:40 115-100, +15

Women's:  California 60, USC 55

After letting six-point leads slip away twice, the California women's team played tough defense in the final minutes to force overtime against USC before winning 60-55.  USC's commitment to running down the shot clock gave the game an unusual rhythm, and their size inside frustrated Ashley Walker into a subpar (by her standards, anyways) game.  Fortunately, Devanei Hampton stepped up with a strong game, nailing a key jumper and a pair of big free throws late, and the Bears got another big defensive game from Rama N'Diaye.

Alexis Gray-Lawson led the Bears in plus/minus with a +8, with Hampton, N'Diaye and Lauren Greif close behind with +5s.

Although N'Diaye didn't grab a lot of rebounds or score a lot of points, her presence gummed up the inside.  Even though she picked up two fouls early, she managed to avoid getting into further foul trouble despite USC's repeated attempts to throw the ball into whoever she was guarding.  In the first half, during the 9:40 that she was in the game, the Bears gave up just 7 points, as opposed to the 18 they gave up during the other 10:20.  In the second half, during the 14:05 she played, the Bears gave up just 15 points, compared to the 9 points they gave up during the other 5:55.  That means that in regulation, the Bears allowed 22 points during her 23:45 on the floor, or about 0.91 points per minute (36.4/40 minute pace). Without her on the floor, the Bears gave up 27 points during that 16:15, or about 1.69 points per minute (67.6/40 minute pace). 

One area of concern is that Vital and Greif combined for just 10 points.  As opposing defenses focus their energies against Hampton and Walker, and especially when they're facing taller athletic players that are harder to get around, the Bears will need Greif and Vital to become more active scorers to keep defenses from cheating down low.

Player Min +Pts -Pts Pts Reb Ast Diff
Alexis Gray-Lawson 44 60 52 11 1 0 +8
Devanei Hampton 34 43 38 20 15 2 +5
Rama N'Diaye 22 31 26 5 4 4 +5
Lauren Greif 43 58 53 2 4 0 +5
Shantrell Sneed 5 8 5 0 0 0 +3
Ashley Walker 30 43 42 11 7 4 +1
Natasha Vital 39 49 50 8 8 4 -1
Kelsey Adrian 8 8 9 3 1 2 -1

First vs. Second Half (minimum 2 minutes)

First Half Top - Alexis Gray-Lawson - 27-22, +5
Second Half Top - Rama N'Diaye - 16-15, +1
Overtime - Devanei Hampton - 11-4, +7

First Half Bottom - Shantrell Sneed - 11-8, +3
Second Half Bottom - Krista Foster - 4-13, -9
Overtime - Rama N'Diaye - 4-4, 0

Starting Lineup

Vital, Greif, Gray-Lawson, Hampton, Walker in 14:59 - 24-25, -1
All other lineups in 30:01 - 36-30, +6

Big lineups:

Hampton and Walker lineups 19:28 27-25, +2
Hampton and N'Diaye lineups 13:35 16-11, +5
Walker and N'Diaye lineups 9:34 14-15, -1
Other 2:23 3-4, -1
TOTAL 45:00 60-55, +5


Difference Makers

With Alexis Gray-Lawson in 44 minutes - 60-52, +8
Without Gray-Lawson in 1 minute - 0-3, -3

With Devanei Hampton in 34 minutes - 43-38, +5
Without Hampton in 11 minutes - 17-17, 0

With Rama N'Diaye in 22 minutes - 31-26, +5
Without N'Diaye in 18 minutes - 29-29, 0

With Lauren Greif in 43 minutes - 58-53, +5
Without Greif in 2 minutes - 2-2, 0

With Natasha Vital in 39 minutes - 49-50, -1
Without Vital in 6 minutes - 11-5 , +6

Contribution Evaluation

Player Minutes Expected Actual Difference
Gray-Lawson 44 +4.84 +8 +3.16
N'Diaye 22 +2.42 +5 +2.58
Sneed 5 +0.55 +3 +2.45
Hampton 34 +3.74 +5 +1.26
Greif 43 +4.73 +5 +0.27
Adrian 8 +0.89 -1 -1.89
Walker 30 +3.30 +1 -2.30
Vital 39 +4.29 -1 -5.29

Weekend combined

How critical is Gray-Lawson to the team's fortunes?  During the two past games, she sat a total of three minutes, and during that time Bears were outscored 11-0.

Of the various big player combinations, the Hampton/N'Diaye would appear to be the most effective, as it allowed just 17 points in 18:20, but it was also the least effective offensively, scoring just 20 points during that period.

Player Min +Pts -Pts Pts Reb Ast Diff
Alexis Gray-Lawson 82 127 97 23 4 4 +30
Ashley Walker 63 106 89 29 17 6 +17
Natasha Vital 77 114 99 24 15 7 +15
Rama N'Diaye 37 60 46 9 7 5 +14
Lauren Greif 67 99 90 8 6 0 +9
Devanei Hampton 63 85 77 29 25 4 +8
Shantrell Sneed 12 19 13 0 0 1 +6
Kelsey Adrian 22 25 29 5 5 3 -4
85 127 108 +19

Big lineups

Hampton and Walker lineups 45:26 65-58, +7
N'Diaye lineups 37:11 59-46, +13
  • Hampton and N'Diaye lineups
18:20 20-17, +3
  • Walker and N'Diaye lineups
18:51 39-29, +10
Other 2:23 3-4, -1
TOTAL 85:00 127-108, +19

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