Plus/minus: MBB, WBB vs. Oregon St.

Besides scoring 13 points, grabbing 8 rebounds, dishing out 4 assists, diving for loose balls, and then expending even more energy on the bench urging his teammates along, Jamal Boykin led the Bears with a +11 in Cal's 81-76 win over Oregon State at Haas Pavilion on Thursday. For the women, Ashley Walker led the Bears with a +13 in their 56-45 win over Oregon State in Corvallis.

Men's:  California 81, Oregon State 76

There were all sorts of interesting thing that happened with the lineups on Thursday.  For one, the Bears decided to start Jamal Boykin in place of Devon Hardin, with Hardin not entering the game until the 11:28 mark and coming in with Harper Kamp to replace Boykin and Ryan Anderson.  As the Bears fell behind 26-18, it didn't appear that any lineup combination was working for the Bears.

Cal then went with a lineup of Randle, Knezevic (in for Vierneisel), Christopher, Anderson, and Hardin, which reduced the lead by 3, to 29-24.   The Bears then did something that they've had success with lately; bringing in Boykin to play alongside two bigs and become a de facto 3.  Boykin came in for Christopher, and the Bears shaved four more points off the lead and trailed 30-31 with 3:38 left.  Cal then brought in Christopher for Knezevic and Kamp for Hardin, and the Bears finished with a 10-5 run.

With Boykin playing alongside two bigs for 6:20 of the first half, the Bears were a +9 (16-7), yet the Bears were unable to revisit that lineup configuration in the second half.  A lot of Cal's flexibility was lost when Boykin picked up his fourth foul with 6:16 left.

The Bears also went with three backcourt point guardish combinations, one with just Randle, one with Randle and Knezevic, and another with Liss and Knezevic. The Randle/Knezevic units, which have had limited success lately, were productive for the Bears, netting a +8 in 11:17. By comparison, the Randle lineups resulted in a +1 in 25:19, while the Knezevic/Robinson lineups managed a -4 during their 3:24.

Towards the end of the game, the Bears did some offense/defense switching with Boykin and Hardin.  Boykin had four fouls, but was a better candidate for shooting free throws.  Hardin provided a bigger physical presence inside, but was more of a risk at the free throw line.  The switches began when the Bears were up 78-68 with 52 seconds left. From there until the end of the game, the Bears as a team were -5; with Boykin on the floor for +1 of that and Hardin on the floor for -6.  If we took the -5 and split it, Boykin would have finished at around +7.5, while Hardin would have been a +1.5.  Boykin's numbers are still strong, while this adjustment helps Hardin a little.

Player Min +Pts -Pts Pts Reb Ast Diff
Jamal Boykin 25 54 43 13 8 4 +11
Jerome Randle 37 76 67 11 4 2 +9
Harper Kamp 10 21 16 8 3 0 +5
Ryan Anderson 34 70 65 22 12 1 +5
Nikola Knezevic 15 33 29 3 2 1 +4
Patrick Christopher 37 75 74 15 7 4 +1
DeVon Hardin 18 33 35 9 3 1 -2
Eric Vierneisel 21 38 42 0 3 3 -4
David Liss 3 5 9 0 0 1 -4

First vs. Second Half (minimum 2 minutes)

First Half Top - Jerome Randle - 35-27, +8
Second Half Top - Jamal Boykin - 25-19, +6

First Half Bottom - David Liss - 5-9, -4
Second Half Bottom - DeVon Hardin - 16-21, -5

Difference Makers

With Jamal Boykin in 25 minutes - 54-43, +11
Without Boykin in 15 minutes - 27-33, -6

With Jerome Randle in 37 minutes - 76-67, +9
Without Randle in 3 minutes - 5-9, -4

With Harper Kamp in 10 minutes - 21-16, +5
Without Kamp in 30 minutes - 60-60, 0

With Ryan Anderson in 34 minutes - 70-65, +5
Without Anderson in 6 minutes - 11-11, 0

With Eric Vierneisel in 21 minutes - 38-42, -4
Without Vierneisel in 19 minutes - 43-34, +9

Lineups

Starting lineup -Randle, Christopher, Vierneisel, Boykin and Anderson  in 11:49 - 22-23, -1
Randle, Christopher, Boykin, Kamp and Anderson in 3:38 - 10-5, +5
Randle, Knezevic, Christopher, Hardin and Anderson in 4:48 - 12-9, +3
All other lineups in 19:45 - 37-39, -2

Randle/Knezevic/Liss lineups:

Lineups with two:

Randle and Knezevic lineups 11:17 28-20, +8
Liss and Knezevic lineups 3:24 5-9, -4
TOTAL 14:41 33-29, +4

Lineups with one:

Randle lineups 25:19 48-47, +1
TOTAL 25:19 48-47, +1

Boykin lineups

Alongside 2 bigs 6:20 16-7, +9
Alongside 1 big 18:37 38-36, +2
TOTAL 24:57 54-43, +9

Contribution Evaluation       

Player Minutes Expected Actual Difference
Boykin 25 +3.13 +11 +7.87
Randle 37 +4.63 +9 +4.37
Kamp 10 +1.25 +5 +3.75
Knezevic 15 +1.88 +4 +2.12
Anderson 34 +4.25 +5 +0.75
Christopher 37 +4.63 +1 -3.63
Hardin 18 +2.25 -2 -4.25
Liss 3 +0.38 -4 -4.38
Vierneisel 21 +2.63 -4 -6.63

Description: This stat measures the significance of a player's contribution to the team's effort. If a team wins by 10 points, and a player plays in half of the team's minutes, his expected contribution would be a +5. For example, when Cal defeated Grambling by 19 points. Brian Wethers played 28 minutes or 70% of the game. If we multiply 70% x +19, Wethers' expected contribution would be a +13.30. But for the game he was a +26, so his net for the game for a +12.70. In a perfect team situation, if everyone contributed equally, the difference column would consist of a row of zeros.


Women's:  California 56, Oregon State 45

In what must have been one of their odder games of the season, California's women's basketball team bounced back from a 13-11 halftime deficit to defeat Oregon State 56-45 in Corvallis.  With the win the Bears stay in first place in the Pac-10, boosting their conference record to 12-1, which keeps them one game against Stanford which defeated Oregon yesterday.

Neither team shot well in the first half and the two team and a 10 minute stretch when both teams combined for a total of five points. Part of Cal's offensive issues were due to Ashley Walker picking up her second foul midway through the first half and sitting the final 10:17.  In the second half, the Bears came out with considerably more vigor, opning with a 22-13 run, which pushed them to a 33-26 lead and the Bears were able to hold the lead the rest of the way.

Walker topped the Bears with 17 points, 8 rebounds, and a +13.  Looking at her numbers further, the Bears were -2 during the 12 minutes that she sat. More incredibly, the Bears scored only 4 points during those 12 minutes.  Another way to look at it is that the Bears averaged 1.86 points per minute with her in the game (74.4 points/40 minute pace), but just 0.33 points per minute (13.2 points/40 minute pace). Yet during that time the Bear defense also stiffened as the point per minute rate as the Bears allowed 0.50 points per minute (20 points/40 minute pace) without Walker but 1.38 points per minute (55.2 points/40 minute pace) with her.

Any look at the Bears' defensive effort has to consider the impact of Rama N'Diaye. During her 19 minutes, the Bears allowed just 0.78 points per minute (31.2 points/40 minutes) with her in the game, but 1.33 points per minute (53.2 points/40 minute) during the other 21 minutes.

Natasha Vital came up big for the Bears with 17 points and 6 assists; her ability to consistently score well will be a determining factor in how successful the Bears will be in the big season.  While Cal can usually count on reliable performances from Walker, Hampton, and Gray-Lawson, it'll be the play of Vital and Greif that will push Cal beyond being a very good team.

Player Min +Pts -Pts Pts Reb Ast Diff
Ashley Walker 28 52 39 17 8 2 +13
Alexis Gray-Lawson 37 51 40 6 1 5 +11
Natasha Vital 35 52 43 17 1 6 +9
Devanei Hampton 26 33 26 12 4 0 +7
Kelsey Adrian 22 26 19 0 2 1 +7
Lauren Greif 23 37 31 2 2 1 +6
Rama N'Diaye 19 20 15 2 6 0 +5
Shantrell Sneed 4 2 2 0 0 0 0
Krista Foster 6 7 10 0 2 0 -3

First vs. Second Half (minimum 2 minutes)

First Half Top - Ashley Walker - 7-7 and Rama N'Diaye - 4-4, 0
Second Half Top - Ashley Walker and Natasha Vital, 45-32, +13

First Half Bottom - Lauren Greif - 11-13, Devanei Hampton - 11-13, and Krista Foster 0-2, -2
Second Half Bottom - Krista Foster - 7-8, -1

Starting Lineup

Vital, Greif, Gray-Lawson, Hampton, Walker in 8:05 - 17-11, +6
All other lineups in 31:55 - 39-34, +5


Difference Makers

With Ashley Walker in 28 minutes - 52-39, +13
Without Walker in 12 minutes - 4-6, -2

With Alexis Gray-Lawson in 37 minutes - 51-40, +11
Without Gray-Lawson in 3 minutes - 5-5, 0

With Natasha Vital in 35 minutes - 52-43, +9
Without Vital in 5 minutes - 4-2, +2

With Devanei Hampton in 26 minutes - 33-26, +7
Without Hampton in 14 minutes - 23-19, +4

With Kelsey Adrian in 22 minutes - 26-19, +7
Without Adrian in 18 minutes - 30-26, +4

Contribution Evaluation

Player Minutes Expected Actual Difference
Walker 28 +7.70 +13 +5.30
Gray-Lawson 37 +10.18 +11 +0.82
Hampton 26 +7.15 +7 -0.15
N'Diaye 19 +5.23 +5 -0.23
Greif 23 +6.33 +6 -0.33
Vital 37 +10.18 +11 -0.82
Adrian 22 +6.05 +7 -0.95
Sneed 4 +1.10 0 -1.10
Foster 6 +1.65 -3 -4.65

 


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