Efficiency Ratings: Game 21

As the Blue Devils progress through the season there will be many different theories on how to measure team success. TDD has adopted the NBA Efficiency Formula to track Duke's top players and performances after each game and throughout the season.

A quick way NBA coaches measure a player's game performance is by evaluating his efficiency. In order to find a player's efficiency the following formula is used:

((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field Goals Att. - Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. - Free Throws Made) + Turnovers)).

For example, compare the following stat lines:

Player A: 17 points (5-of-22 FG, 7-9 FT), 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals, 4 turnovers.

Player B: 15 points (5-8 FG, 3-4 FT), 4 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 turnovers

Who had the better game? Using the NBA formula player B, who hit five of eight shots and committed two turnovers registered a +20 efficiency total while Player A who missed 17 shots and had four turnovers had just a +11 rating.

For reference, last year LeBron James posted the two most efficient games of the season with a +54 (37 points on 11-of-17 FG & 9-10 FT, 12 rebounds, 11 assist, 2 steals, 1 block, and 2 turnovers) and +50 (40 points on 16-of-23 FG & 6-6 FT, 8 rebounds, 8 assist, 1 steal, 2 blocks, and 2 turnovers) rating.

It seems to happen each and every year. There is one game where Duke just doesn't seem ready to compete at the level needed. Last season it came against NC State in Raleigh. This year it came against St. John's in New York. An odd location given Duke's history in Madison Square Garden. Still, the Red Storm took control early in the game and by halftime had built a 20 point margin. The Blue Devils did show flashes of competitiveness down the stretch, but not nearly enough to put the game's outcome in doubt.

Next up will be a a rematch against Maryland in College Park. The first time around the Terps pushed Duke to the limit in Cameron Indoor Stadium. This time Gary Williams' club will be frothing at the mouth - to say nothing of the thousands of Terp faithful - for a chance to beat an already wounded group of Blue Devils. If Duke is to avoid back to back losses, it will be crucial to get a far better performance from the supporting cast.

v. St. John's
(change from previous game)

Notes: Nolan Smith put together a gutsy performance and tried to will his team back into the game. Smith scored 32 points, shot better than 50 percent and grabbed seven rebounds while dishing out four assists. He finished the game with a +30 rating. The fifth time this season he has posted a +30 or higher number. For reference, there have been eight such performances from the team. Five of them have been Smith.

Despite the play of Smith, the Blue Devils didn't' get too much in the way of efficiency from the rest of the roster. Classmate Kyle Singler scored 20 points, but his rating (+11) was hurt by his lack of rebounds (2), assists (0), and steals (1). Additionally the 7-of-17 shooting from the field brought down this game's rating for the 6'8 senior. Meanwhile fellow face up forward Ryan Kelly posted the only other double figure efficiency rating for the roster with a +13 thanks to strong rebounding numbers (9) which overcame his lack of scoring (7 points) and shot makes and attempts (2/4).

In the last game sophomore Seth Curry posted a season high +22 efficiency rating. Against the Red Storm Curry struggled tremendously from the field and overall, posting a -1 rating. When Curry was rotated out of the lineup, sophomore Andre Dawkins managed to post seven points and a +5 rating. Meanwhile Tyler Thornton's night produced a 0 efficiency rating meaning the guard rotation outside of Smith posted a combined +4.

Similarly the post game struggled with Miles and Mason Plumlee combining for just a +10 as Mason posted the lowest number of rebounds in several weeks.

Throughout the season TDD will track the various highs and lows using the formula.

Ten Most Efficient Performances

  • Mason Plumlee v. Marquette (+36)
  • Nolan Smith v. UNC-Greensboro (+36)
  • Kyrie Irving v. Michigan State (+35)
  • Nolan Smith v. Miami (+31)
  • Nolan Smith v. UAB (+31)
  • Ryan Kelly v. Wake Forest (+31)
  • Nolan Smith v. Virginia (+30)
  • Nolan Smith v. St. John's (+30)
  • Nolan Smith v. Boston College (+29)
  • Kyle Singler v. UNC-Greensboro (+29)
  • Kyle Singler v. Oregon (+27)

Five Least Efficient Performances*

  • Seth Curry v. Miami (-3)
  • Seth Curry v. Michigan State (-2)
  • Tyler Thornton v. Kansas State (-2)
  • Tyler Thornton v. Virginia (-2)
  • Andre Dawkins v. Wake Forest (-1)
*- players must play at least 3 minutes or factor into the box score in some what to be considered for per game E-ratings

Cumulative Season ratings for the Blue Devils. (E/game)*

  • Nolan Smith +441 (21.0)
  • Kyle Singler +352 (16.8)
  • Mason Plumlee +275 (13.1)
  • Ryan Kelly +231 (11.0)
  • Andre Dawkins +209 (9.9)
  • Kyrie Irving +165 (20.6)
  • Seth Curry +161 (7.7)
  • Miles Plumlee +161 (7.7)
  • Tyler Thornton +46 (2.7)
  • Josh Hairston +33 (2.1)
*- players must play at least 2 minutes or factor into the box score in some what to be considered for per game E-ratings. Irving (E/8); Thornton (E/17); Hairston (E/16)

Tracking the most and least efficient performances by player

  • Kyrie Irving +35/+12
  • Nolan Smith +36/+4
  • Mason Plumlee +36/+0
  • Kyle Singler +29/+7
  • Andre Dawkins +23/-1
  • Seth Curry +22/-3
  • Ryan Kelly +31/+2
  • Miles Plumlee +19/-1
  • Tyler Thornton +9/-2
  • Josh Hairston +15/+0

Notes: Ryan Kelly continued to be steady with his efficiency performance by posting his fourth straight double figure game. And while Kyle Singler's efficiency ratings have peaks and valleys, the Blue Devils can usually expect mid-teen to low 20s from him. However, the search for a reliable second tier platoon of performance continues without Irving who will take his cast off Friday and be evaluated at that time.

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