Efficiency Ratings: Game 33

As the Blue Devils progress through the season there will be many different theories on how to measure team success. TDD has adopted the NBA Efficiency Formula to track Duke's top players and performances after each game and throughout the season.

A quick way NBA coaches measure a player's game performance is by evaluating his efficiency. In order to find a player's efficiency the following formula is used:

((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field Goals Att. - Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. - Free Throws Made) + Turnovers)).

For example, compare the following stat lines:

Player A: 17 points (5-of-22 FG, 7-9 FT), 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals, 4 turnovers.

Player B: 15 points (5-8 FG, 3-4 FT), 4 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 turnovers

Who had the better game? Using the NBA formula player B, who hit five of eight shots and committed two turnovers registered a +20 efficiency total while Player A who missed 17 shots and had four turnovers had just a +11 rating.

For reference, last year LeBron James posted the two most efficient games of the season with a +54 (37 points on 11-of-17 FG & 9-10 FT, 12 rebounds, 11 assist, 2 steals, 1 block, and 2 turnovers) and +50 (40 points on 16-of-23 FG & 6-6 FT, 8 rebounds, 8 assist, 1 steal, 2 blocks, and 2 turnovers) rating.

Another foot injury scare proved to be much ado about nothing as Smith came back strong and lead the Blue Devils back to the ACC Championship game. Duke has won nine of the previous 12 ACC Tournaments and will look for their league leading 19th championship tomorrow against arch-rival North Carolina. Before facing the Tar Heels, however, Duke had to take care of business against a very scrappy and physical bunch of Hokies. Duke shot 47 percent fro meth field, but just 28 percent from the perimeter. The Blue Devils also committed 15 turnovers against 11 assists, but managed to force the Hokies into 12 turnovers and held Virginia Tech to 37 percent from the field and 13 percent from the line.

v. Virginia Tech
(change from previous game)

Notes: Less than 24 hours removed from the least efficient performance of the season by any player, Nolan Smith was back on form in the efficiency ratings. The senior shot the ball well (8-of-16) and scored a game high 27 points. He also dished out six assists. His rebounding stats were a bit down (2), and he committed three turnovers which lowered his score a bit more. Still, he scored above his extremely high season average with a +21. Given the style of play the Hokies play, it wasn't much of a surprise to see every Duke player aside from Smith post a less efficient performance on Saturday. In the post the Plumlee brothers and Ryan Kelly registered +9s. A 14 point drop for Mason Plumlee, a five point dip for Miles, and a three point drop for Kelly. Much of the reason starts with the scoring (a combined 22 points between the three of them), but the rebounding numbers were also surprisingly low for the three bigs with the Plumlees grabbing four boards apiece and Kelly adding just two. The slack on the glass was picked up by Singler who pulled in 11 boards while also scoring 13 points to register a respectable +16 rating. Shooting (4-of-11 and 0-of-2 from the perimeter) was the major culprit in Singler's score dipping as were the three turnovers.

Throughout the season TDD will track the various highs and lows using the formula.

Ten Most Efficient Performances

  • Mason Plumlee v. Marquette (+36)
  • Nolan Smith v. UNC-Greensboro (+36)
  • Kyrie Irving v. Michigan State (+35)
  • Kyle Singler v. Maryland (+34)
  • Nolan Smith v. Miami (+31)
  • Nolan Smith v. UAB (+31)
  • Ryan Kelly v. Wake Forest (+31)
  • Nolan Smith v. Virginia (+30)
  • Nolan Smith v. St. John's (+30)
  • Nolan Smith v. Boston College (+29)
  • Kyle Singler v. UNC-Greensboro (+29)

Five Least Efficient Performances*
  • Nolan Smith v. Miami (-6)
  • Andre Dawkins v. Miami (-4)
  • Andre Dawkins v. Miami (-4)
  • Tyler Thornton v. Miami (-4)
  • Seth Curry v. Miami (-3)
*- players must play at least 3 minutes or factor into the box score to be considered for per game E-ratings
Cumulative Season ratings for the Blue Devils. (E/game)*

  • Nolan Smith +645 (19.5)
  • Kyle Singler +542 (16.4)
  • Mason Plumlee +477 (14.5)
  • Ryan Kelly +329 (10.0)
  • Seth Curry +312 (9.5)
  • Miles Plumlee +242 (7.3)
  • Andre Dawkins +237 (7.2)
  • Kyrie Irving +165 (20.6)
  • Tyler Thornton +78 (2.9)
  • Josh Hairston +34 (1.8)
*- players must play at least 3 minutes or factor into the box score to be considered for per game E-ratings. Irving (E/8); Thornton (E/27); Hairston (E/18)

Tracking the most and least efficient performances by player

  • Kyrie Irving +35/+12
  • Nolan Smith +36/-6
  • Mason Plumlee +36/+0
  • Kyle Singler +34/-1
  • Andre Dawkins +23/-4
  • Seth Curry +27/-3
  • Ryan Kelly +31/-1
  • Miles Plumlee +19/-2
  • Tyler Thornton +12/-4
  • Josh Hairston +15/-1

Notes: Miles Plumlee's late season emergence (he's started both ACC Tournament games) has resulted in the junior overtaking Andre Dawkins for sixth place in the team's season efficiency ratings. Smith's bounce back performance stemmed the bleeding for the efficiency per game average, but he still sits just below the 20.0 points per game mark after Friday's -6 performance….which results in Kyrie Irving's legend continuing to grow among Duke faithful as the freshman's 20.6 per game mark is the team high. With the season having a max of seven games remaining, the Blue Devils have a number of statistical battles going on according to these ratings. A big game from Dawkins could result in the sophomore taking back sixth place from the elder Plumlee, while Seth Curry is within 17 points of Ryan Kelly in the race for fourth place. The top spot has been out of reach for several weeks thanks to Smith's Player of the Year performance. Singler will finish second on the team. Mason Plumlee will finish third. The next four positions feature the battles between Curry and Kelly and Dawkins and Plumlee.

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