Efficiency Ratings: North Carolina

As the Blue Devils progress through the season there will be many different theories on how to measure team success. TDD has adopted the NBA Efficiency Formula to track Duke's top players and performances after each game and throughout the season.

A quick way NBA coaches measure a player's game performance is by evaluating his efficiency. In order to find a player's efficiency the following formula is used:

((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field Goals Att. - Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. - Free Throws Made) + Turnovers)).

For example, compare the following stat lines:

Player A: 17 points (5-of-22 FG, 7-9 FT), 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals, 4 turnovers.

Player B: 15 points (5-8 FG, 3-4 FT), 4 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 turnovers

Who had the better game? Using the NBA formula player B, who hit five of eight shots and committed two turnovers registered a +20 efficiency total while Player A who missed 17 shots and had four turnovers had just a +11 rating.

Heading into the game against North Carolina there were questions as to Duke's ability to defend a four guard lineup that had allowed the Tar Heels to rip through six straight opponent. On Saturday night, however, those questions were quickly answered as the Blue Devils rolled to a 14-0 lead early and never allowed their hosts to get closer than nine points the rest of the way. The end result was an easy 16 point victory that propelled Duke to a final regular season record of 27 wins against just four defeats.

v. North Carolina
(change from previous game)

Notes: Curry raced out of the gates by making his first seven shots and scoring 18 first half points to put the game out of reach before intermission. From there the senior missed all three of his second half shots and made just two free throws in the final 19 minutes of action. Nothing more was needed, and his score would have likely been higher had the Tar Heels not slowed down the game when down by 25.

The senior class as a whole was the difference with Mason Plumlee posting a +28 score thanks to 67 percent shooting and another double-double (23/13). Plumlee's score would have been higher, but surprisingly he recorded zero assists, and was hit with three turnovers. Still, a +28 is one of the ten best scores of the season.

Meanwhile, the third senior, Ryan Kelly, slowed down from his ridiculous production run since returning to post a +10. It's Kelly's lowest score of the season, and the senior's tally was limited with just four shot attempts. He also recorded three rebounds and three assists against three turnovers.

Freshman Rasheed Sulaimon is really struggling as Duke heads into the post season. After scorching Boston College for a +27 just five games ago, the Houston native has recorded a cumulative score of just +6 (1.5/game) against Virginia, Miami, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina. To say that Duke will need the talented freshman to find his rhythm over the next few days is an under statement. Against the Tar Heels, Sulaimon was bounced from the starting lineup and played just 15 minutes.

Quinn Cook had another nice game for Duke with 12 points, five rebounds, and five assists. It resulted in a +14 rating - the score being hit by seven missed field goals.

Throughout the season TDD will track the various highs and lows using the formula.

Ten Most Efficient Performances

  • Mason Plumlee v. NC State (+36)
  • Quinn Cook v. Clemson (+36)
  • Mason Plumlee v. Wake Forest (+35)
  • Mason Plumlee v. Florida Gulf Coast (+34)
  • Mason Plumlee v. Minnesota (+34)
  • Mason Plumlee v. Ohio State (+31)
  • Mason Plumlee v. Santa Clara (+30)
  • Mason Plumlee v. Boston College (+29)
  • Mason Plumlee v. Georgia State (+29)
  • Mason Plumlee v. North Carolina (+28)

Five Least Efficient Performances*
  • Seth Curry v. Miami (-8)
  • Rasheed Sulaimon v. NC State (-6)
  • Tyler Thornton v. Miami (-3)
  • Seth Curry v. Ohio State (-2)
  • Alex Murphy v. Florida Gulf Coast (-1)
  • Josh Hairston v. Georgia State (-1)
*- players must play at least five minutes or factor into the box score to be considered for per game E-ratings
Cumulative Season ratings for the Blue Devils. (E/game)*
  • Mason Plumlee: 698 (22.5)
  • Quinn Cook: 465 (15.0)
  • Seth Curry: 412 (13.7)
  • Rasheed Sulaimon: 324 (10.5)
  • Ryan Kelly: 318 (17.7)
  • Tyler Thornton: 189 (6.1)
  • Amile Jefferson: 178 (6.1)
  • Josh Hairston: 104 (3.4)
  • Alex Murphy: 58 (2.1)
  • Marshall Plumlee: +1 (0.1)

Cumulative Season ratings per minute for the Blue Devils. (E/minutes)

  • Mason Plumlee: 0.649
  • Ryan Kelly: 0.617
  • Amile Jefferson: 0.462
  • Quinn Cook: 0.443
  • Seth Curry: 0.435
  • Rasheed Sulaimon: 0.360
  • Alex Murphy: 0.307
  • Tyler Thornton: 0.278
  • Josh Hairston: 0.261
  • Marshall Plumlee: +0.021

Tracking the most and least efficient performances by player

  • Mason Plumlee: 36/0
  • Quinn Cook: 36/3
  • Tyler Thornton: 16/-3
  • Rasheed Sulaimon: 26/-6
  • Ryan Kelly: 39/10
  • Seth Curry: 26/-8
  • Amile Jefferson: 16/0
  • Alex Murphy: 13/-1
  • Josh Hairston: 12/-1
  • Marshall Plumlee: 2/-1

Notes: The return of Kelly has limited the available minutes for players such as Amile Jefferson, Alex Murphy, and Marshall Plumlee. Jefferson had produced admirable numbers in Kelly's stead, but his style of play doesn't extend the floor, nor does he always match up well against bigger, stronger players.

Kelly's production over the last three games has helped him steadily climb back up the rankings. He's made up a 68 efficiency point difference on Rasheed Sulaimon in just three games, and is a safe bet to take over the forth spot in the cumulative season totals during this week's ACC Tournament.

Meanwhile, Mason Plumlee's production this season has resulted in the highest cumulative, average, and per minute scores in the history of these rankings (four years).

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