Befuddled Reasoning

Last week I cautioned Pirate fans against overconfidence heading into the William & Mary game. To illustrate my point I cited ECU's 1977 upset loss to the Tribe.

Fortunately the Pirates didn't fall victim to William and Mary this time around, but you wouldn't know it by the fans' reaction to the 38-23 Pirate win over the division 1-AA program.

Equally disconcerting to ECU fans is the fact that the next two Pirate opponents Syracuse and UNC both won impressively over nationally recognized programs. While it is only natural for fans to use past performances to predict future outcomes, in college football it is in reality a silly exercise.

For example, consider that upcoming ECU opponent Syracuse narrowly defeated Central Florida in early September 21-10 and this past weekend UCF defeated Tulane 36-29. We all know that the Pirates walloped Tulane 51-24 two weeks ago so that surely means ECU should defeat Syracuse by at least nine points right? Foolish reasoning, but it's common isn't it?

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