Tessa Mortensen

Statistical Breakdown: Florida Gulf Coast vs Florida State

Taking a look at the numbers behind the Eagles and Seminoles matchup in Orlando.

Basic Stats

FGCU Florida State
Points Per Game 79.4 82.5
Opp Points Per Game 68.8 71.3
3-PT FG% 35.0% 35.6%
3-PT FG% Defense 30.9% 34.4%
Rebounding Margin +6.2 +3.5
Turnovers per game 12.4 11.8

Vegas Odds

Line: Florida Gulf Coast is a 12 point underdog

Over/Under: 146.5 points

According to @SportsInsights on Twitter, Florida Gulf Coast is receiving 77% of spread bets in Vegas. Meaning, lots of people are laying money down on FGCU; the Eagles aren't sneaking up on anyone - in Vegas, at least - this year. Todd Fuhrman, an expert in the business, expanded on this sentiment.


FiveThirtyEight Predictions

Known for its advanced statistics and predictive analysis across sports, pop culture, and politics, FiveThirtyEight once again released its March Madness Predictions. Using its Elo rating - which takes into account the final score, home-court advantage, location of each game, and each team's conference - the 538 crew gives Florida Gulf Coast a 12% chance at defeating Florida State and a 4% chance of reaching the Sweet 16.

Ken Pom Stats

KenPom, the holy grail of college basketball analysis, uses adjusted-tempo statistics in order to make predictions. Take a look at how KenPom rates these two teams:

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions)

Florida Gulf Coast: 109.6 (82nd in the country)

Florida State: 116.7 (25th in the country)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions)

Florida Gulf Coast: 104.6 (172nd in the country)

Florida State: 94.0 (23rd in the country)

Adjusted Tempo (possessions per 40 minutes)

Florida Gulf Coast: 64.8 (299th in the country)

Florida State: 70.4 (52nd in the country)

Using these statistics, KenPom gives FGCU a 14% chance at upsetting Florida State.

Pulse of the Nation

ESPN tallies each and every bracket in the Tournament Challenge, counting each entry as a "vote". At the moment, 18% of the nation is picking #14 seed Florida Gulf Coast to upset #3 seed Florida State.

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