Tessa Mortensen

Statistical Breakdown: Florida Gulf Coast vs Florida State

Taking a look at the numbers behind the Eagles and Seminoles matchup in Orlando.

Basic Stats

FGCU Florida State
Points Per Game 79.4 82.5
Opp Points Per Game 68.8 71.3
3-PT FG% 35.0% 35.6%
3-PT FG% Defense 30.9% 34.4%
Rebounding Margin +6.2 +3.5
Turnovers per game 12.4 11.8

Vegas Odds

Line: Florida Gulf Coast is a 12 point underdog

Over/Under: 146.5 points

According to @SportsInsights on Twitter, Florida Gulf Coast is receiving 77% of spread bets in Vegas. Meaning, lots of people are laying money down on FGCU; the Eagles aren't sneaking up on anyone - in Vegas, at least - this year. Todd Fuhrman, an expert in the business, expanded on this sentiment.

https://twitter.com/ToddFuhrman/status/841863635819499521

FiveThirtyEight Predictions

Known for its advanced statistics and predictive analysis across sports, pop culture, and politics, FiveThirtyEight once again released its March Madness Predictions. Using its Elo rating - which takes into account the final score, home-court advantage, location of each game, and each team's conference - the 538 crew gives Florida Gulf Coast a 12% chance at defeating Florida State and a 4% chance of reaching the Sweet 16.

Ken Pom Stats

KenPom, the holy grail of college basketball analysis, uses adjusted-tempo statistics in order to make predictions. Take a look at how KenPom rates these two teams:

Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions)

Florida Gulf Coast: 109.6 (82nd in the country)

Florida State: 116.7 (25th in the country)

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions)

Florida Gulf Coast: 104.6 (172nd in the country)

Florida State: 94.0 (23rd in the country)

Adjusted Tempo (possessions per 40 minutes)

Florida Gulf Coast: 64.8 (299th in the country)

Florida State: 70.4 (52nd in the country)

Using these statistics, KenPom gives FGCU a 14% chance at upsetting Florida State.

Pulse of the Nation

ESPN tallies each and every bracket in the Tournament Challenge, counting each entry as a "vote". At the moment, 18% of the nation is picking #14 seed Florida Gulf Coast to upset #3 seed Florida State.


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