Florida State just completed their sweep of the ACC Tournament and captured their sixth ACC Championship. The Seminoles bounced back from losing five straight to Louisville and Clemson with the dominating performance they showed this week.
Prior to getting swept by Clemson, the Seminoles were looking good for a national seed, but after it looked like Florida State would need some help to secure one. The Seminoles did their part by going 4-0 with wins over National seed Louisville, NC State, North Carolina, and Clemson.
Dallas Baptist, TCU, Missouri State, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M are all vying for the last two national seeds. TCU lost their first two games of the Big 12 tournament and were sent home. Dallas Baptist went 2-2 in their tournament. Texas A&M made it to the final four of the SEC tournament before being eliminated by Vanderbilt in decisive fashion. Missouri State won the MVC tournament also going 4-0. Vanderbilt plays in the SEC championship against Florida this afternoon.
If Vanderbilt wins the SEC tournament they will likely lock down one of the national seeds. If they lose Texas A&M will likely take their place. That leaves four teams competing for that final spot. Here’s how the teams compare.
Record against the Top 25 RPI: 4-8
Record against the Top 26-50 RPI: 4-0
Record against the Top 25 RPI: 4-4
Record against the Top 26-50 RPI: 3-1
Record against the Top 25 RPI: 6-2
Record against the Top 26-50 RPI: 3-2
Record against the Top 25 RPI: 13-7
Record against the Top 26-50 RPI: 6-3
Breaking It Down
What is hurting the Seminoles are the two sweeps in the ACC by Notre Dame and at home to Clemson, as well as a losing record on the road. All three of the other teams have more wins than the Seminoles and fewer losses.
However, when you put it down to paper Florida State has a much better resume than any of the other teams under consideration. Florida State has one less Top-25 RPI win (13) than the other three teams combined (14). The have a much higher strength of schedule than Missouri State and TCU. The Seminoles have double the number of Top-50 RPI wins for each of the other three teams. They play in the conference with the second best RPI rating, just behind the SEC. The Big 12 and MVC are fifth and sixth on that list. Florida State has more Top-25 and Top-50 RPI wins than any other team in the country. Florida State has series wins over two national seed locks in Miami and Florida while splitting the series against another national seed lock Louisville 2-2.
The RPI numbers have also not taken into account the games that have been played on Sunday and will likely push the Seminoles up into the Top-8 after their victory over the No. 24 RPI team NC State in the ACC Championship game. The Seminoles deserve a national seed. Whether they get one or not will be decided on Monday.
Numbers taken from D1Baseball