This is my answer to that and satexas kind of hit on it. Last year's game was super close not a blowout. All FSU needed in last year's game was a just a little (not a lot), just a little more offense and FSU wins - period. There are a lot of reasons to think that we get a little more offense in this game.
Now lets look at that 1.6 yards per carry. Who did we have up front blocking? Our whole interior offensive line was gutted and we had backups in there trying to play in this huge game. Now you've got Castillo back, Meinrod back, Frady with another year of experience, and Claude (an up and coming star). So you have to guess that we are going to eek out a little more of a running game in this game. Plus we have a new blocking scheme that UM hasn't seen us use. They're defensive line and front seven needs to throw out the old tapes that they've been using when studying our offensive line blocking schemes. Those are not the schemes they will see this coming Monday.
Also, and I hate to pick on Rix (God bless him because he's gone), but you've got to look at the fact that there were a number of bafoon mistakes in last year's game at the QB position that basically kept UM close and in the game. Rix fumbled a ball down in our territory when he got sacked and had the ball stripped but our defense held strong and didn't allow UM to score. Just imagine if we had kept the ball for a little while just to drive enough to get a field goal on that drive. Then Rix comes out on one series after we stopeed UM and on first down heaves one of his patented down the sideline passes to Cro Thorpe in double coverage, with the safety coming over, and it gets picked by the safety. Then he throws into double coverage again trying to hit Chris Davis on a seam pass that UM's two deep safeties read easily for a pick.
These are the kinds of mistakes that Drew or X probably won't make. They are not going to force throws all game or try to evade a sack with the ball in the palm of one hand only to have it stripped away in our territory. They may not shred UM's secondary for 350 yards passing but they are not going to make silly mistakes that keep UM in the game. All we need is a little more offense last year or just to keep the ball safe on one of those drives where we turned it over and we probably leave the Orange Bowl victorious.
You have to believe we'll muster up a little more offense in this game than we did last year. I think we have better players at WR this year and more depth. We are better in the interior up front than we were when we played UM last year. Those things lead me to believe we win in a close game over UM.
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