Who Stays and Who Goes?

The MLB Draft can wreak havoc on a college program any year, but it looks like the Gators should make it out of the 2011 draft without an overwhelming hit. A school record 11 current players were drafted, while eight signees were picked in spots where the Gators shouldn't see much of a loss.

Now that we've got all the hard news out there about who was drafted where, here are my thoughts on who is returning and who won't be. Off the bat, I just want to point out that this is an incredibly inexact science. We could guess that a guy is returning, but if he gets offered money that's too good to pass up, they can take it. The round a player is drafted doesn't always predict how much money they'll get from a team. If the pro team likes the player, they can go over the slot value to sign them.

SENIORS: Josh Adams, Bryson Smith, Matt Campbell

You know it's a good draft for a team when all of their seniors are drafted. All three of these guys have been drafted before, and all were drafted during their final seasons. Adams was taken out of high school, Smith was taken out of JUCO and Campbell was taken last year. It's hard not to be happy for these guys. It's great for Adams to go from undrafted to 13th round, and an awesome story for Campbell as a walk-on to a 24th round pick.

JUNIORS: Nick Maronde, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Panteliodis, Tommy Toledo, Preston Tucker, Ben McMahan, Greg Larson, Tyler Thompson.

Maronde, DeSclafani, Panteliodis and Toledo will all likely be gone. Maronde and DeSclafani can't help their stock any more next year. If they came back, even having a better season wouldn't get them much more money. The leverage a junior has gets them extra money than a senior who has no option but to sign. Panteliodis will likely go as well. With the entire weekend rotation returning to UF next season, he would be forced to get innings out of the bullpen or in midweek games. Give Panteliodis credit for boosting his stock in the last two outings against Vanderbilt and Miami. He took advantage of that and will get a good signing bonus because of it. Despite being a redshirt junior, Toledo walked on senior day. I think that's a good indicator of what he'll do.

I said before the draft that I was hearing Tucker would return for his senior season, and it still looks that way. He floated $500k as the price it would take to sign him, and he fell to the 16th round because of it. I even heard that a few teams took him off their draft board when he told them that. I'm not sure what he has to gain by coming back for his senior year, but he loves UF and would rather spend his fourth season in Gainesville than traveling on buses from one minor league park to another. $500k is about what a mid-late second round pick would get, so unless the Rockies are willing to pay that, he'll be back in right field for the Gators next season.

McMahan is an interesting situation. The Gators have Brandon Sedell, who is an Aflac All-American, coming in next year that could serve as the backup catcher, so they don't necessarily need McMahan to stay. I think he will sign for a couple reasons. He has always swung the bat well in summer wood bat leagues, most notably in Cape Cod at the toughest wood bat league in the country. For whatever reason, the numbers haven't translated to the college game. With this being his junior season, he has that remaining leverage to make some extra money by signing. I expect him to do that, but I also thought there was a good chance he would transfer before this season to get consistent playing time. He really enjoys UF, so I wouldn't count out him coming back, but I think it's unlikely.

I was told before the draft that Greg Larson was most likely coming back for his senior year, and the draft would seem to indicate that. The 27th round is nothing to scoff at, but he's another one that enjoys UF a lot. I'd expect him back, anchoring a solid bullpen with Austin Maddox and Steven Rodriguez.

Tyler Thompson will be back next year baring something crazy. It would be ridiculous to take 47th round money after an injury-plagued season. Thompson will be a starter from day one next season, and he'd be crazy to pass up on boosting his stock through that.

SIGNEES: Michael Kelly, Hudson Boyd, Daniel Vogelbach, Kyle Smith, Casey Turgeon, Josh Tobias, John Magliozzi, Ryan Harris.

Despite what his advisor says, I would be surprised if Kelly made it to campus. The Padres first two picks shouldn't demand much over slot. Their second round pick, Austin Hedges, is going to take significant amount over slot to keep from away from the Texas Longhorns, but there aren't many more early picks that will take a lot of money. The Padres have been in the middle of the pack in money given to prospect in the past three years, so they should be fine giving Kelly the money he wants.

Boyd was drafted by the Minnesota Twins, who have been in the lower third of money spent on draft picks. It will take some money for them to sign Boyd, but he was their third pick and they should be willing to pay him. Knowing that they usually don't go over slot money for a pick, the Twins usually make calculated decisions based on signability of a player before they take him. I would expect Boyd to sign.

Daniel Vogelbach is the wild card in the draft for the Gators. The Chicago Cubs took him early in the second round, despite rumors of a $1.65 million asking price from the Bishop Verot slugger. The Cubs drafted Javier Baez No. 9 overall, and he should sign for around slot price. They took Miami's Zeke DeVoss with their third pick. He's a draft-eligible sophomore who could command more than slot to sign. Vogelbach still looks like he might command the most over slot price to sign. Shawon Dunston (10th round) and Dillon Maples (14th round) will take a lot of money to keep them from Vanderbilt and North Carolina, so if the Cubs spend the money to sign them, it could effect how much they have left for Vogelbach. Chicago is 25th in baseball in money spent on draft picks in the last three years, but despite their hesitancy to spend money, I can't imagine the Cubs would have drafted Vogelbach in the second round if they didn't know of his asking price and expect to pay it.

Kyle Smith is an undersized right-hander that the Blue Jays took in the 4th round. That might have been the perfect team for the Gators to hope would select him. Toronto loaded up on players with questionable signability that will take a lot of money to sign. Tyler Beede (1st round), Kevin Comer (supplemental round), Daniel Norris (2nd round) and John Stilson (3rd round) will all need a lot of money to keep away from going or returning to college. Andrew Suarez (9th round) and Aaron Nola (22nd round) will also command above slot money to be kept away from Miami and LSU respectively. The Blue Jays have spent the eighth most money on draft picks in the last three years, but Smith won't sign for cheap, and he doesn't mind going to Florida. He could actually be one who sneaks through the cracks and makes it to school.

Middle infielder Casey Turgeon (New York Mets/22nd round) and right-hander Ryan Harris (New York Yankees/37th round) should make it to campus without much of an issue.

Utility player Josh Tobias (Washington/31st round) and right-hander John Magliozzi (Tampa Bay/35th round) both fell in the draft because they expressed an interest in going to college with scouts. Tobias has 6.35 speed in the 60-yard dash and will immediately become the fastest player on the team if he makes it to Gainesville. Magliozzi is undersized at 5-10, but he has a chance to be a good starting pitcher under the tutelage of Florida head coach Kevin O'Sullivan.

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