The Dawg Post Discussion

Another installment of Fletcher Page's news, notes and somewhat relevant rambling.

Heisman ballots were mailed out this week – and no, I'm not the one who casts the Dawg Post vote.

I should be, but Dean has seniority and needs something to do anyway.

Truthfully, I'm kind of glad I'm not making the selection this year. There's really not a player that stands out to me. I see a lot of great players, but I can't settle on one that's "Heisman worthy."

Alabama's Trent Richardson, to me, is the player in the best position to win, but he won't hear his name called. Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore fell off a cliff after the loss to TCU. Oklahoma's Landry Jones has been good, but not elite. Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden seems like a product of the system (aren't they all?). Oregon tailback LaMichael James is back in the running after the Ducks beat Stanford. Which brings me to who will win the Heisman – Andrew Luck.

The Cardinal signal caller will win the coveted trophy due to his body of work the past three seasons and also because of who he is on and off the field.

I'm not really as big a fan of the Heisman as I'd like to be, speaking honestly. It should be given to the season's best player in college football. Why did it take so long before underclassmen could win? Why can't defensive players draw a legitimate sniff? Should the winning player's team won-loss record matter?

These questions have been points of contention since well before it took Herschel Walker three seasons to win what should have been his much earlier.

So Luck will win. He's good – damn good. But just for fun, look at this:

Player A: 2680 yards, 29 TDs, 7 INTs, 8.5 yards per attempt, 134 yards rushing.
Player B: 2284 yards, 27 TDs, 8 INTs, 8.4 yards per attempt, 88 yards rushing.


Player A is Luck – who has led Stanford to a 9-1 record and will most likely be the first pick in the 2012 NFL draft.

Player B is Aaron Murray – who has led Georgia to an 8-2 record and is a redshirt sophomore.

Is Aaron Murray a Heisman candidate? No. Why? Georgia lost to Boise State and South Carolina. He doesn't have a signature victory. He is 1-5 in his career against ranked teams. LSU and Alabama are seen as better teams in the conference. He's still seen as a guy trending up, with his best two years ahead of him.

Luck, on the other hand, has already had his moment of excessive Mother ship exposure. His redshirt sophomore season saw high profile play and big wins against Notre Dame, Southern Cal and Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl.

He turned down the NFL this offseason, but his prototypical build and smarts all but guarantee him the top spot in the upcoming draft.

I'm not arguing Murray should be up for the award – he shouldn't. It's just that in this class, there's a multitude of fine options. But there isn't an overwhelming favorite. Luck finished second in the 2010 Heisman voting. Cam Newton was the rightful winner, with Luck clearly second fiddle. That's why he'll ultimately win out, no matter who the flavor of the moment is right now.

While I'm in the mood, let's have some more fun with numbers.

Let's look at Murray versus the prototypical NFL passer from Georgia (first two years of play at the position):

Murray: 61.2%, 51 TDs, 16 INTs
Matt Stafford: 54.2%, 26 TDs, 23 INTs.

Now, Stafford did play his true freshman season while Murray redshirted. But look at the completion percentage. Murray and Stafford are now tied for third all-time with 51 career touchdown passes. Stafford has the edge in embarrassing/awesome photos on the Internet. And HERE. And HERE. Ah, who am I kidding? There's nothing embarrassing about those photos.

Mike Bobo says: "Stafford, he text me after the (Auburn) game. He goes, 'What's up with throwing all these touchdowns?' I told him, 'You threw the ball a lot more, he's just completing them for touchdowns.' "

Let's compare Aaron to the quintessential Georgia college quarterback (through first two seasons of play).

Murray: 61.2%, 51 TDs, 16 INTs
David Greene: 58.4%, 39 TDs, 17 INTs

Smoked him. And Greene also redshirted. He's the all-time leader in (everything) touchdowns with 72. Murray should blow by him by Week Eight of next season.

What does this all really mean? Well, statistically, Murray is setting himself up to be the best ever at a school with a storied quarterback history. He's also on the verge of leading the team to an SEC title game.

That's where the real legacy could set in… Because for all of Stafford's talent and ability, he'll rank No. 3 in the Richt Era behind Greene and D.J. Shockley because of one important detail: Hardware.

Could Aaron end up ranked ahead of his predecessors in the minds of the Bulldog Nation?

Bobo says: "Like any quarterback, its measured on big games and the championships. He's still got this year and two more years to play. I think that's yet to be decided. Statistically he'll rank up there, but it always comes down to the big games."

We shall see, my friends. We shall see…

With all that said… Ladies and gentlemen you already know what it is… Let's get it poppin'.

The jump

I found it interesting that a handful of outlets and publications gave Auburn the edge in coaching prior to last weekend's game.

Don't jump me here – I'll credit Gene Chizik for coaching the Tigers to the national title last season. They had a lot of close games and dealt with an immense amount of NCAA allegations… ahem… I mean adversity.

But the man's overall record as a head coach is 33-28. That's 54 percent.

Meanwhile, all coach Mark Richt has done is go 104-36, win two SEC titles and is about to claim his fourth Eastern Division title.

Chizik may have the trump card. But Richt has the rest of the deck.

Graydog25 asks: When does CMR and CTG get an extension if we win out, I think right before the GALA would be perfect and build a lot of excitement going into the biggest recruiting weekend of the year?

That's a good idea and probably the best way to handle the situation.

Here's my take on coaches and contracts… The whole thing is kind of like the stock market. While you can look at a stock's history to help with your confidence to push buy, the only thing that TRULY matters is where you think the stock is going to be in the future.

You can buy Nick Saban and cash dividend checks for the rest of your life. But it's not always that easy.

Richt was a question mark coming into this season. But I'd rather be buying Richt right now than Chizik. Richt's body of work shows success in the past. The past two seasons weren't good – a dip on the snapshot.

But look at what next season could hold. Take into account all the pieces that returning next season. Look at the recruiting class in 2011. Look at what could be in 2012 and what is already building for 2013.

I see Chizik similar to stock in Green Mountain Coffee. Hang with me.

At the start of 2010, Green Mountain's stock (GMCR) was hovering right at $20 per share. But the company had an innovation that changed the game (Cam Newton). Green Mountain came up with a one-cup brewing system. No other company offered such a wonder. GMCR surged to $115 per share (national title) before the competition (the rest of the SEC), Starbucks and others, could catch up.

But catch up they did. Since Semptember, Green Mountain has gone from a triple-digit stock to $51.69 at the close on Thursday.

Ouch. Remember, Auburn went 14-0 last year and currently sits 6-4.

You wouldn't or shouldn't buy stock in GMCR right now (Auburn still has to play Alabama and in a crappy bowl game). But that's not to say the company can't get back to where it once was. It will be hard, but anything is possible. Green Mountain execs say development of new ideas is ongoing in new markets, including a similar concept to the one-brewing system in the juice industry (recruiting better players, installing better formations, concepts & systems).

But for now, GMCR and Chizik are on hold. And the Equity Summary Score says Richt is a Bull in this market. Buy! Buy! Buy!

While we're on this end of the court

Graydog mentioned Grantham's contract when he asked about Richt's… Hey, I don't blame Grantham's agent for openly discussing interest from other teams (professional and collegiate) in his client.

This has now become a big topic…

theburnem says: 3. Is mcgarity going to lock up Grantham with a multi year deal like he deserves?

Rex5413 asks: If you were AD, how do you lock up Todd Grantham for the future? ??

Here's my opinion: Grantham has all the leverage right now. He has the fourth-best defense in the country and the team is on its way to the SEC title game.

He probably does deserve an extension and more money. But is right now the best time to be discussing this? Georgia has to beat Kentucky to get to Atlanta. And the Georgia Tech game still remains. Then a potential matchup with LSU or Alabama or Arkansas comes next.

Who cares about contracts right now? The man is making $750K, has a year remaining on his current deal and is doing a great job in Athens.

Richt's future should be addressed first – that will come after the season. If he beats Kentucky, he'll most likely be extended for another half decade. If that goes down, Grantham will likely be soon to follow. But agents (who act in the interest of their client's wishes) shouldn't be discussing all this right now.

I'm not naïve. I understand the business aspect of this is waaaaay more important than the actual game itself. But I don't have to accept that.

SuwaneeDawg03 asks: If Todd Grantham were to take another job, do you feel that Coach Olivadotti would be a good replacement at DC?

I don't think so. He's a good coach, but he's never been a defensive coordinator at any level. I think Georgia would look for somebody more experienced in that role (cough, cough, Manny Diaz).

OK, one more question about job security or contracts… After that, I'll be setting my hair on fire…

Rex5413 asks: Does BoBo get any calls for Head coaching spot this year?

My how the tables have turned… The fans are coming around on ole Bobo. It must be because the team is averaging 35.8 points per game this season… Well, the offense did average 32.4 last season. Maybe it's because Aaron Murray set the single season school record with 27 touchdown passes… Well, Joe Cox did have 24 TDs in 2009.

Maybe Bobo does know what he's doing. Winning will make a man look awfully smart. So will Murray, Isaiah Crowell and Malcolm Mitchell.

In saying all that, I don't see Bobo becoming a head coach at a major college. It's a tremendous leap in obligations and responsibility. I think he's in a favorable spot in Athens.


gunter2011 asks: 1. Say we win out, 10-2, play LSU in the SEC Champ. Whats the spread?

LSU at -7.5.

theburnem asks: 2. Do you believe Richt will get his extension before or after the season?


SuwaneeDawg03 says: If you don't watch Dexter, you must. Another great season is in session.

Adding it to the list. The Wire is next up.

Predictions sure to go wrong (or right)

Gunter2011 asks: What bowl do we end up in if we lose/win?

As it stands now (if everything holds true to the way the games are predicted), Georgia will most likely be in the Capital One Bowl. There is still a chance for the Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl and Sugar Bowl (in that order), but if Georgia beats Kentucky and Tech and loses to LSU, a trip to Orlando is most likely.

Stand up fight, No helmets or pads, Stafford vs. D.J. Moore, round 2. Who wins?

Here's the tale of the tape:

Stafford: 6-2, 232 pounds, Age: 23
Moore: 5-9, 180 pounds, Age: 24

Kudos to Stafford for dealing something out to a defender, regardless of the way he did it. Although, Moore wasn't cheap-shotting Stafford on the return like most defenders try to do a quarterback after an interception.

Looking at the tale of the tape, Stafford should win due to the shear size advantage. Depends though… If it's Talladega Stafford, I like his odds. If he's on that boat, I'm hesitant to take him.

A Twitter recap from last week's predictions

I picked Georgia to cover the 13.5 spread against the Tigers. #thatsoneforme.

I said Auburn wouldn't be able to run the ball, forcing one of its quarterback to become good all of a sudden. #thatwasagoodone.

I predicted Jarvis Jones would have more than six tackles, no sacks and more than one tackle for loss. He finished with five tackles, two sacks and two tackles for loss. #thatquestionsetmeupforfailure.

Still pending:

Will Spurrier retire at the end of the season? Dean and I both said no. #thegolfcourseawaits.

What bowl will Georgia play in? Last week I said Outback, but admitted I was biased because of rumors of steak and bloomin' onions in the press box. #selfish. Now it's looking like the Capital One Bowl, which is played in Orlando – the Cougar Capital of the world, as proven by #tigertigerwoodsyall.

About those already on campus…

apple dawg asks: If we have to fly for a bowl game, can the team take Q Harrow on the plane or is he now considered a dangerous explosive?

What are the odds he ends up on the jumbotron before every home game? Cootie may forever become a BOOOOOM!!!! figure on the pregame video. Not bad for a kid most thought was a complement piece in the Isaiah Crowell sweepstakes.

Suwaneedawg03 asks: Shawn Williams really played a great game against Allbarn. His closing speed on runners has been really impressive. I haven't heard much talk about his performance in the game. Your opinion on him?

He's a good player. It's easy to get lost in the shuffle from time to time on this defense – especially when Rambo scores a touchdown and Jones is constantly in the backfield and ‘Tree is all around the ball and Commings nearly had a pick six, and oh by the way, Shawn Williams can tackle people.

That's kind of how it rolls out of my brain.

While Rambo has grabbed most of the attention with his interceptions and awesome interviews, Williams has become a safety with his own niche.

I will point out the long pass in the first quarter that Auburn completed was on both Rambo and Williams because they didn't pass the coverage off. But that happens in football.

Those two go together like lamb and tuna fish… Maybe you like spaghetti and meatball? You more comfortable with that analogy?

It's obvious we have improved as the season has progressed, do you see any fall off in the next couple of weeks?

Not really… I don't think Kentucky is going to make anybody feel like last weekend was a fluke (I picked the Dogs to cover). Neither will Tech, and who knows what could happen if Georgia makes it the Dome. A shot at either of those Western teams is all you could ask for.

I believe our defense is getting really close to the level of the other 2 in the SEC. Our offense is better than LSU's and the SECCG could make for a really great game. I think we have a strong chance. What say you?

I don't think I would pick Georgia straight up, but if the predictions are right and the spread is somewhere between seven and 10, it would be a tempting line to take. I think LSU is the best team in the West, but I also feel like it's the best matchup for Georgia too (if that makes any sense).

If it plays out to a LSU-Georgia matchup, I'll go into detail about why I feel that way.

SWGADAWG asks: Will we ever see Kwame and Big John on the field at the same time? I envision them both in the middle vs Tech and just shutting down the inside run. If so what would the lineup look like???

This was a frequently discussed idea in the offseason after Jenkins signed – I didn't like it then, and I still don't see it happening much (except perhaps on the goal line or short yardage situations).

The lineup of Abry Jones, Jenkins or Geathers and DeAngelo Tyson has performed well enough in the base that I don't think you want to sub in the other nose. However, if there ever will be a time something like this will be used, I do agree with you that Tech could be the offense Grantham designs it for.

Korleone05 asks: Do u think the staff would be willing to move Boo to FB??? RS did a great job filling in as a RB, but I do feel that he would be a better LB. If we get KM and TG do you think RS could move back to LB???

At some point, you've got to leave Richard somewhere for good. He's only got one more year to play. Who is he going to play over at linebacker? Alec Ogletree, Mike Gilliard, Christian Robinson, Amarlo Herrera… Not happening. Samuel needs to stay at running back and try to get ready for the next level (which is currently a long shot in terms of game play, but his body will give him a chance).

On Malcome… I guess a move to fullback could happen. Personally, I don't think it matters. Let's just leave it at that. I have a feeling we'll hear more about Boo later in this section…

Graydog25 asks: Does RDrew, SBailey move to DE next year, maybe DMorant, their are a lot of olb, ilb type recruits with Dlee, JHC, JJenkins, Eligwe, this could really open the door to land a lot more of these guy's than originally thought if we are able to do this

Well, Ray and Cornelius are already playing a rush end type position in certain packages. Sterling Bailey has the body type to do the same thing in the future.

As for "moving them to defensive end"… I dunno if that will happen. I don't think Dexter Morant has the body to do it. The others do, but Grantham won't do something like that just for the sake of landing recruits.

There's room for all the outside linebackers this class can handle – the lack of depth at the position should be a good enough selling point as it is. One or two guys potentially moving to defensive end is icing.

Assuming us and LSU make it to the secc game, I would think knowing the physicality of that game will be tremendous, do you see KMalcome getting a lot of work the next couple of games to get him ready for the championship, or will RSamuel be ready by then, We will have to have a work horse type back in that game imo, one of the two has to be ready to relieve IC, CT, BH, so what is your take on that, and also what other players could you see being use to throw a kink or two at LSU, Bama, Arky, NMarshall would be another good one imo

Samuel is supposed to be back for that game. At the moment, he's on track, according to Richt, and I think that's for the best.

I don't think the SEC Championship game is the place for Ken Malcome to receive his first-ever meaningful carry. You're right – the game will be physical. But I don't think you want a guy out there that's never had the football in his hands when it mattered.

That's also why I'm not sure the Nick Marshall package will be unveiled then either. If there is a wrinkle thrown at the Tigers, it will probably involve a player who has already been there done that – Boykin, Smith, Mitchell, etc.

UGA53MAIN asks: Do you think Mitchell would have had 1000 yards receiving if he was healthy all season?

Let's dust off the Dawg Post calculator… Mitchell has 523 yards in seven games played. That's an average of 74.7 per contest. With the Bulldogs on track to play 14 times this year… 14 times 74.7 = 1045.7 yards.

So, yeah… the numbers say he would have made it. I tend to agree.

Hpdog asks: As much as we all love Coach Fox's coaching ability, and his overall demeanor, these recruiting misses on the 2012 Bigs cannot continue in the future. He has got to get someone in the Atlanta AAU Arena to make a difference. Do you think he can make it as a top-notch recruiter for UGA? ( I assume Shaq has signed with Memphis?)

Shaq did sign with Memphis. I'll make this short since I went into full detail about it last week. Fox has to make the proper connections in Atlanta. Go look at what Brian Gregory has done with his staff at Georgia Tech and you'll see what I'm talking about.

I've heard people say, "Tech has the Atlanta draw and plays in the ACC so it's hard to compete with that for kids." Those are just excuses or the acceptance of mediocrity speaking.

I'm not saying Fox has to sellout and hire all kinds of shady AAU coaches to start reeling in kids. But one or two wouldn't hurt. #imjustsayin.

Trooperdawg980 asks: I read somewhere about Rome playing for the basketball team this weekend. I don't recall any football player in the past ever leaving the team before the season was out to play BB. I realize he is RSing, but the practices he misses would have to stunt his growth on the gridiron I would think. I have read nowhere about Marshall being involved with the BB team as of yet. What is the plan that you know of in the future for these two players regarding BB and your feelings on how it will affect them on the football field? IE how much football time are they missing right now for BB time?

Since Rome is redshirting, he's already spending time with the basketball team. He takes care of his football duties during the week and then spends time with the basketball team on the weekends. He's not missing much, if any at all, on the football field.

Marshall, on the other hand, hasn't done anything basketball-related. He won't join the team until after the bowl game (or at least that's what I've been told).

About those thinking what uniform number will be available

Theburnem asks: What i$ the rea$on that keith mar$hall ha$ clem$on in the mix all the $udden? What could they offer to $urge into thi$?

I think you're trying to tell me something… But I can't be sure. Let's move on…

Clueless Dawg asks: Out of the following players, which two players would you bet your last Dawg Post paycheck on UGA signing in February? ??Better yet, which three players would you bet Deans pay check on UGA signing in February??? Keith Marshall, Nelson Agholor,?Avery Young,?Jordan Jenkins,?Josh Harvey-Clemons,?Yuri Wright,?Todd Gurley

Here's how I would rank these kids (first being the highest probability of signing with Georgia):

1. Marshall – would be shocked if he didn't sign with Georgia.
2. Harvey-Clemons – I think he picks Georgia.
3. Todd Gurley – He and Marshall are tight.
4. Avery Young – Who knows? He raves about every school he visits. Tough call at the moment.
5. Yuri Wright – He's out of my region, but Georgia has recruited him hard.
6. Nelson Agholor – Not sure, but I don't feel as confident as I do about the others.
7. Jordan Jenkins – Unless something drastic happens, he's going to Alabama.

Thefan2011 asks: Does this 2012 QB affect us keeping Brice Ramsey? And do they still take 2 QB's in 2013?

I think Faton is a linebacker when all is said and done. He'll get his shot at quarterback and could even have his own package of Tim Tebow plays, but that's the ceiling for him in the Georgia offense.

I think there was initially some confusion at the Ramsey household (because they had been told no QB would be taken in the 2012 class), but Brice loves Georgia and he loves Richt and Bobo. I think it will all work out.

Since Bauta doesn't project as a longterm option at the position, I think Georgia will still be in the market for another signal caller in 2013. I like Brad Butler, but he may go to a school that offers him a better shot to play and start.

A few steps off the baseline

apple dawg 1) What would the score have been last Saturday if Auburn hadn't had an extra week to prepare?

I didn't think about it like that… I'm gonna say 45 to 7 because the trick plays that Auburn used would have still been there and the offense would still have stalled the ball in the second half.

2) Does Dan Mullen look to you like Tony Soprano's younger brother?

Woke up this morning…

3) Other than the people who pay to watch, who will lose the Tennessee-Kentucky game?

Tennessee fan: Dooley's cleaning up our program. Besides we've beaten Kentucky 26 times in a row now.

Kentucky fan: Wait till basketball season.

I probably used way too much in the way of proper grammar there. As much as I'd like to see Kentucky finally get a win in that series, they're too miserable of a team to pull it off.

Until next year…

4) Does Paul Johnson still have bigger fish to fry?

That dude is trying to build a new golf course in Augusta… And he's working with only par-3s.

Willbeezy asks: fletch, how in the world are we gonna ever get to a playoff? this bcs is a mess.

The BCS better hope LSU and OSU win out… If that does happen, everything will work out nice and pretty. But if Arkansas or Georgia beats LSU, or Oklahoma beats the Pokes, utter BCS nastiness will ensue.

In that case, the voters will turn it into a popularity contest. Oregon or Alabama would most likely fight it out among pollsters for a rematch with LSU in the national title game.

Truthfully, I kind of like how the regular season is a quasi-playoff. LSU eliminated Oregon and Alabama. Oregon killed off Stanford. Boise choked against TCU. Teams in the Big 10 ate each other's lunch.

What is supposed to be left is LSU and OSU – which is currently what we're standing with. But there are so many outs left that could throw upheaval into the system that I'm starting to agree with those that want a plus-one playoff.

Although once they get that in place, there will always be a fifth team clamoring about strength of schedule or SEC bias or something or another.

Frequenter of the week

Jandrews1 asks: Where in Athens do the Dawgpost crew celebrate big victories?

Well… We here at the Dawg Post like to keep a low profile. We don't do too much celebrating and we turn in early on Saturday nights. I'm making this the Question of the Week because I'm glad you think we go out and have a good time.

Your six-pack of O'Doul's Amber is in the mail – but you'll have to share them with Dean.

Last call…

Suwaneedawg03. I have recently opened my own retail business and must record the games on Saturday and watch after closing. I DO NOT want to know the score or anything about the game prior to watching. Do you have any recommendations on how I can ensure that customers do not give me score updates?

I'd wear a Josh Smith jersey t-shirt to intentionally push the conversation toward a polarizing subject such as the NBA lockout. But that would mean you'd have to wear a Josh Smith jersey t-shirt. Yikes! Upon wearing that, you'd immediately show great potential in the retail world, but ultimately leave customers wishing for more.

It's either that or take a Twilight book to work with you… People will think your significant other dominates the relationship and feel sorry for you or they'll think you don't like sports and you're either a fan of the undead or werewolves.

With that I'm hitting the back door and getting out of here…

Turn out the lights boys, the party's over… We outta here baby… Thank y'all for coming.

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