Dean Legge/Dawg Post

UGA's Path to NCAAs is Challenging

ATHENS - Dean Legge takes a look at where the Dawgs stand, and what is in from of them heading into the post-season.

Right now UGA is 13-8. 

Best win: vs. South Carolina (25), vs. Georgia Tech (81) vs. Clemson (83)

Worst losses: at LSU (75), at Ole Miss (85)

Teams in front of UGA (at this moment): 

Programs on the wrong side of the bubble: 

Kansas State (40), Georgetown (73), Alabama (57), St. Bonaventure (49), Stanford (71), LSU (75), Texas Tech (53), UCLA (72), Wisconsin (65), Oregon State (42), Vanderbilt (58)

Programs on the right side of the bubble: 

George Washington (36), Clemson (83), Gonzaga (60), Butler (69) and St. Joseph's (31).

They are about ~8 teams back. So they are going to have to jump tons of folks or have them fall back. Now, CBS has UGA as the fourth team back. ESPN is the eighth team back. 

Why? Frankly, they don't really have any wins of consequence save the home win vs. S. Carolina. 

With all of that said... here is the way I look at it moving forward. You have games where you have nothing to lose. You have must-win games. And you have so-so games. 

Nothing to lose:

at Kentucky (19)

vs. Florida (27)

at South Carolina (25)

Must win:

at Mississippi State (177)

at Auburn (118)

vs. Ole Miss (85)

vs. Alabama (57)

So-so

at Vanderbilt (58)

I'd say it will go like this: 

at Kentucky - loss, 13-9

at State - win, 14-9

vs. Florida - win, 15-9

at Vandy - loss, 15-10

at Auburn - win, 16-10

vs. Ole Miss - win, 17-10. 

at S. Carolina - loss, 17-11

vs. Alabama - win, 18-11

I think I might have given them a win either against the Gators or somewhere on the road when they won't. I think this is best-case scenario. They are going to need to win at least three games in Nashville the way I look at it. They might have to win the event itself. 

UGA's real problem is that for the rest of the way it only plays three teams in the top 50 - USC, UK and UF. They really need to win two of those games to get back in the discussion. Right now I think they probably need to get to 20/21 wins with wins over teams that matter. That's going to be challanging.


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