That means the Bulldogs have about a 57% chance of winning the game against Kentucky. The Bulldogs have not lost to the Wildcats since 2009, and haven’t lost in Lexington since 2006, when true freshman QB Matthew Stafford threw three interceptions and the Bulldogs turned it over four times in the 24-20 loss.
The loss to the Cats was the low point of the Stafford era in Athens. After being named the permanent starter after UGA’s 24-22 loss to Vanderbilt earlier that season, Stafford struggled as the Bulldogs spiraled down during the midseason - losing four of five games - before getting it together as a program and winning 18 of its next 20 games.
Kentucky has improve dramatically as a team this season after a very slow start. The Cats opened the season with losses to Southern Miss and Florida. Wins over New Mexico State and South Carolina was followed by a lopsided loss to Alabama. But the Cats have won three SEC games in a row to position themselves to have their best finish in the conference in decades.
In the last 20 years, Kentucky has been a 3-point underdog nine times and has an straight up record of 5-11 in those games. At home the Cats are 3-5 as 3-point favorites in that time. Kentucky has been all over the map this year when it comes to expectations set by Las Vegas. Cats (-3.5) were upset by Southern Miss, but have upset Mississippi State (-6.5) and Missouri (-7.5) in back-to-back weeks.
Georgia has only been a 3-point favorite or lower against the Cats once in the last 20 years - No. 11 Georgia’s 28-26 win in Lexington. The Bulldogs are 17-3 against Big Blue in the last twenty contests between the two schools. UGA is 11-9 vs. the Cats against the spread in the last 20 years. Also, the Bulldogs are 2-1 in night games in Lexington in the last 20 seasons (1996 L, 2010 W and 2012 W).