Early Bowl Guesses

Although the season is still in October, columnist Dean Legge will try to guess the likelihood of each team in the SEC getting to one of the designated spots in the SEC Bowl lineup.

The cold in the air is here, so that means it must be getting closer to bowl season in the SEC. No, the race in both divisions is not yet decided, however, it is becoming more and more clear what teams are likely to go where and why.

This article will look at the probability of each team reaching the designated 7 bowl games guaranteed to the conference.

SEC West

Alabama

While the Tide looked like they could have challenged for the West title less than a week ago, now it seems that they could slide to fourth in the West as a result of their loss to Ole Miss last Saturday. It was the first time in more than a decade that the Rebels beat the Crimson Elephants, and the loss pretty much ends any hope of Bama winning the West.

Cotton Bowl – 1 in 75

Peach Bowl – 1 in 60

Outback Bowl – 1 in 80

Music City Bowl – 1 in 30

Independence Bowl – 1 in 4 

Auburn

A huge win over Florida gave Auburn a stranglehold on the SEC West lead. They are not likely to lose it either. A possible re-match with the Gators would not bode well for the Tigers, that is if Florida can get past the likes of Georgia, USC, and Tennessee. Auburn is the best team in the West, but the East is still stronger overall and at the top. But it looks like a repeat to the Citrus is possible.

Sugar Bowl – 1 in 80

Citrus Bowl – 1 in 15

Cotton Bowl – 1 in 60

Peach Bowl – 1 in 20

Outback Bowl – 1 in 30

Arkansas

A huge win over USC propelled the Hogs to thinking about going to a bowl game again. The Hogs will need to play very good down the stretch in order to prolong their season. I doubt that will happen, but I did not think that they would beat the Cocks either.

Music City Bowl – 1 in 175

Independence Bowl – 1 in 160

LSU

Their match up with Auburn is crucial at the end of the season. In order to get to the Dome for the title game, the Tigers must beat Auburn and hope that they lose to someone else. They will have on red and black when Auburn visits Georgia in less than a month.

Sugar Bowl – 1 in 200

Citrus Bowl – 1 in 80

Cotton Bowl – 1 in 20

Peach Bowl – 1 in 150

Outback Bowl – 1 in 15

Ole Miss

The win over Bama sent the stock of the Rebels soaring. But the schedule ahead is daunting. The Rebels must get past LSU, a surging Arkansas team, and Georgia, not to mention their rival Mississippi State. Winning the West is not likely because of the early season loss to Auburn, but if the Rebels can get past Georgia, a Peach Bowl birth is possible.

Sugar Bowl – 1 in 400

Citrus Bowl – 1 in 100

Cotton Bowl – 1 in 50

Peach Bowl – 1 in 15

Outback Bowl – 1 in 20

Music City Bowl – 1 in 200

Independence Bowl – 1 in 45

SEC East

Florida

The loss to Auburn last week crushed the hopes that Florida had of a national title run. But the Gators can still get back to the Sugar Bowl by winning the rest of their SEC game. And that is much easier said than done. Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee will be in the way for the Gators. Florida's bowl situation is very much up in the air.

Sugar Bowl – 1 in 50

Citrus Bowl – 1 in 50

Cotton Bowl – 1 in 75

Peach Bowl – 1 in 100

Outback Bowl – 1 in 150

Tennessee

Losing to Georgia was the worst thing that could have happened to the Vols. For the second straight season, they are already significantly behind Florida and Georgia in the SEC East standings midway through the season. This season the Cotton Bowl will not step up to save the Orange if they falter more. Two more losses and UT could be heading to the Outback or worse.

Sugar Bowl – 1 in 150

Citrus Bowl – 1 in 100

Cotton Bowl – 1 in 300

Peach Bowl – 1 in 35

Outback Bowl – 1 in 25

Music City Bowl – 1 in 100

Independence Bowl – 1 in 150

South Carolina

This is an interesting situation. Sure, the Cocks travel well, but are they going to end up with a 7-4 record at the end of the season? Probably, at least they look like they are going to lose to at least Florida and Tennessee, which would drop them to a very un-sexy 8-3. The potential of a great bowl game really took a hit after the Arkansas loss. If the Cocks lose to Clemson too, they will end up in Shreveport.

Sugar Bowl – 1 in 700

Citrus Bowl – 1 in 400

Cotton Bowl – 1 in 100

Peach Bowl – 1 in 30

Outback Bowl – 1 in 300

Music City Bowl – 1 in 75

Independence Bowl – 1 in 30

Georgia

Georgia, like all of the other East teams, can still win the East. In fact the Dawgs have the "easiest" schedule remaining of all of the contenders. Georgia "only" has to beat Florida and one of the two West schools remaining on its schedule (this is already counting the UK win; if Georgia cant get past Kentucky, then bowl talk is not necessary). The big game for Georgia is the Florida game in two weeks. Win that game and the Dawgs will do no worse than the Citrus. Lose that game and one or two more of the remaining schedule and it could get ugly.

Sugar Bowl – 1 in 100

Citrus Bowl – 1 in 60

Cotton Bowl – 1 in 30

Peach Bowl – 1 in 100

Outback Bowl – 1 in 150

Music City Bowl – 1 in 150

Independence Bowl – 1 in 80

There is no need to mention Vandy, State, or UK

 

  Sugar Citrus Cotton Peach Outback Music City Independence
Bama     1 in 75 1 in 60 1 in 80

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