By the Numbers: Texas A&M at Kansas

They won't officially declare a conference champion after this game, but many believe the winner of this game will have the inside track to the Big 12 race.  The Aggies of Texas A&M, winners in 11 of their last 12 games, take on Kansas in a Top 10 showdown in Allen Fieldhouse.  Let's take a look at some of the numbers that shape this matchup.

Analysis: Last 5 Venue-Appropriate Games

The charts below illustrate the performance for each team over their last 5 venue-appropriate games.  That is, KU home games and Texas A&M road games.  The red bar represents each team’s current Sagarin Predictor rating, which best represents team strength for the entire season.  The “Performance” is calculated by taking the opponent’s Sagarin rating for the game and adding (subtracting) the margin of victory (loss) for each game.  Home advantage is also factored into the equation.  Keep in mind that these games are not the most recent five games overall.  Thus, KU’s strong showings on the road against Baylor and Nebraska are not shown here.

In this analysis, it would appear that KU has underperformed its own season average by about 2 points.  Texas A&M has actually outperformed its season rating by about 1.6 points.  Thus, over the last five venue-appropriate games for each team, Texas A&M has has been 4.8 points better than Kansas.  The majority of this advantage is mitigated by the expected homecourt advantage (approximately 4 points) for KU on Saturday, meaning this analysis predicts a nailbiter.

One thing to keep in mind is that five games is an arbitrary cutoff.  One of Texas A&M’s weakest performances of the year was a 12-point loss at LSU, which is not captured here.  Similarly, one of KU’s best performances was its 18-point victory at home over Boston College, also not captured.  Still, this does provide some insight into just how similarly these two teams have been performing recently.

PSAN Player Ratings – Conference Only

Note: These ratings do not adjust for strength of opponent, since conference-only Sagarin ratings are not available.  For more information behind the methodology of PSAN ratings, visit this page.  Ratings are shown only for players who average at least 8 minutes per game.

Texas A&M

PSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
PSAN ("Total Impact")




Joseph Jones



Acie Law



Josh Carter



Marlon Pompey



Dominique Kirk



Antanas Kavaliauskas



Donald Sloan




PSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
PSAN ("Total Impact")




Sherron Collins



Russell Robinson



Julian Wright



Darnell Jackson



Brandon Rush



Mario Chalmers



Sasha Kaun



Darrell Arthur



Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Joseph Jones, Acie Law, and Josh Carter represent a very formidable trio.  All shoot at least 56 eFG% and 76 FT%.  Jones nearly does it all, with excellent rebounding (Top 250 in both O-REB% and D-REB%), ranks #53 in FT rate, gets blocks on 4% of possessions and even keeps his TO’s very low considering how much he plays.  Law shoots a ton of shots (about 28% of his team’s shots when he’s on the floor) but not only does he make them consistently, he even has the #54 AST rate in the country (32% of possession used).  Finally, Carter shoots lights out (66 eFG%) and rarely turns it over.  These three cover the court, with Jones inside, Law outside and Carter the 6-7 in between.  KU will have its hands full on defense.  Although Kavaliauskas has had a stellar season overall, his play in conference games has not been very efficient.  The 6-10 senior and his 61 eFG% shooting should not be ignored.

For Kansas, Sherron Collins and Russell Robinson have really stepped it up in conference play.  Though KU’s early season was dominated mostly by the frontline, we’re beginning to see the perimeter play get into a groove.  Collins is on fire shooting 63 eFG% for the season overall, while Robinson has climbed back from the upper 30’s several weeks ago to near 47 eFG%.  Brandon Rush has been shooting well in conference play (52 eFG%), while Chalmers has slipped a bit in overall contributions.  Julian Wright can dominate on any given night, but he can also put the ball right back into the opponents’ hands.  Overall, KU’s frontline hasn’t been contributing as much to the boxscore of late, but given KU’s overall defensive prowess, they must be doing some of the intangibles and defending very well inside.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Explanation of Terms

NOTE: From top to bottom, the statistics are sorted such that, at the top are the greatest advantages to the team on the left,
and at the bottom are the greatest advantages for the team on the right. 

Clear Advantage for Kansas

No Clear Advantage

Clear Advantage for Texas A&M

Texas A&M OREB**



Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked**




Texas A&M TO rate



Kansas FT%



Texas A&M % Poss STL by Opp



Texas A&M 2pt FG%



Texas A&M % own 2FGA's blocked



Texas A&M PTS/Poss



Kansas FT Rate



Texas A&M eFG%



Texas A&M FT%



Kansas OREB



Texas A&M FT Rate



Kansas eFG%



Kansas PTS/Poss



Kansas 3pt FG%



Kansas % Poss STL by Opp



Kansas 2pt FG%




Kansas TO rate**



Texas A&M 3pt FG%**

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category

Kansas will have above avg % of FG's assisted

Kansas plays faster tempo than Texas A&M Top Stories