By the Numbers: Kansas at Missouri

Throw the records out when these two teams meet.  Missouri looks to avenge a three-point thriller they lost earlier at Kansas.  Let's take a look at some of the numbers that shape this matchup.

Analysis: Last 5 Venue-Appropriate Games

The charts below illustrate the performance for each team over their last 5 venue-appropriate games.  That is, KU road games and Missouri home games.  The red bar represents each team’s current Sagarin Predictor rating, which best represents team strength for the entire season.  The “Performance” is calculated by taking the opponent’s Sagarin rating for the game and adding (subtracting) the margin of victory (loss) for each game.  Home advantage is also factored into the equation.  Keep in mind that these games are not the most recent five games overall.

In this analysis, it would appear that MU has underperformed its own season average by about 3.4 points.  KU has actually outperformed its season rating by about 2.5 points.  Over the last five venue-appropriate games for each team, Kansas has been 15.2 points better than Missouri.  Thus, recent venue-appropriate performance suggests a high probability for a Jayhawk victory.  The only problem with such an analysis is that Missouri always saves its best for when KU comes into town, regardless of their performances leading up to the game.  At the very least, this gives us a sense of just how much Missouri will have revved up its engine in honor of their archrival’s visit.

PSAN Player Ratings – Conference Only

Note: These ratings do not adjust for strength of opponent, since conference-only Sagarin ratings are not available.  For more information behind the methodology of PSAN ratings, visit this page.  Ratings are shown only for players who average at least 8 minutes per game.

Missouri

PSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
PSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER

PSAN70

PSAN

Marshall Brown

2.09

11.89

Kalen Grimes

1.73

5.63

Leo Lyons

1.60

7.30

Darryl Butterfield

0.24

0.68

Stefhon Hannah

-0.05

-0.32

Jason Horton

-0.26

-1.32

Keon Lawrence

-0.77

-3.79

Matt Lawrence

-1.10

-6.69

J.T. Tiller

-1.96

-6.54

Kansas

PSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
PSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER

PSAN70

PSAN

Darnell Jackson

4.59

13.90

Sherron Collins

4.57

25.03

Julian Wright

4.22

23.19

Russell Robinson

4.18

27.53

Brandon Rush

2.22

17.08

Mario Chalmers

1.78

11.79

Sasha Kaun

1.40

6.89

Darrell Arthur

0.01

0.03

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

Missouri has been led by Marshall Brown in conference play.  He’s been the most efficient and has the most total contributions.  Brown leads the team in scoring at 15.1 ppg and chips in 4.7 REB, while shooting 39% from 3FG and 81% at the FT line.  His rating would be higher except that Missouri is 3-6 in conference play.

The overall season’s leading scorer is still Stefhon Hannah, but he’s just not making enough contributions given all his playing time, and MU’s poor performance is attributed to him more than other players on the team.  Hannah does shoot a healthy 54.2 eFG% in conference, averaging 14.6 PTS, 3.1 REB, 3.9 AST and 2 TO’s in about 30 minutes per game.

In conference, Lyons and Grimes have contributed most after Brown.  Lyons shoots about 51 eFG%, 7 PTS, 4 REB and 1.7 STL in just 20 min/gm.  Meanwhile, Grimes averages 5 PTS, 5 REB, 0.8 BLK and shoots 49 eFG% in a mere 15 min/gm.

The big disappointment in conference play has been Matt Lawrence, who was probably the team’s most efficient player pre-conference.  He is shooting 53.2 eFG% but averages only 2.8 REB, 0.9 STL and not much else in over 27 min/gm.  Averaging 8 PTS isn’t going to rate very high when you’re not doing much else and your team is losing a lot.  So, Lawrence hasn’t been making mistakes per se, but he hasn’t been scoring, which is what he’s supposed to do.

In about 15 min/gm, Tiller averages only 4.6 PTS, 1.3 REB, 0.67 AST:TO ratio, 0.9 STL and shoots 50% from the FT line.  He has the worst efficiency in conference play for Missouri.

For Kansas, it may appear surprising at first to see Darnell Jackson as the most efficient in conference play.  Many would have guessed Sherron Collins.  But Jackson plays only 13 min/gm and averages nearly 5 PTS, 4.6 REB and 0.8 BLK while shooting 52% from the field and 75% from the line.  Pretty remarkable numbers for such limited playing time.  Remember though, because Jackson has less playing time, his total impact on the team has not been nearly as high as that of Robinson, Collins or Wright.

Collins has been incredible also, shooting an unfathomable 69 eFG% (53% from 3FG), 77% FT, 13 PTS, 2 REB, 3.4 AST and a 2.2 AST:TO ratio in just 24 min/gm.  It seems every time he has the ball, Collins makes something happen.

Wright’s biggest asset is his versatility.  In just 24 min/gm, he averages 10 PTS, 8 REB, 1.4 BLK and 2 STL.  He needs to cut down on TO’s though.

If you look at conference season total impact, sitting atop the ratings is Russell Robinson.  No one gives him enough credit, and he is rarely on any highlights (at least not as the finisher).  But Russell’s importance to this team is clearly evident.  His numbers have really improved in conference play, where he now shoots a sizzling 65 eFG%, 77% FT, averaging nearly 8 PTS, 3.6 REB, 4.3 AST and 2 STL in about 29 min/gm.  He’s even finishing drives around the basket, where his misses normally drove his critics mad.  At least in conference play, you could make some arguments for Robinson being MVP, although I’m not sure you can overlook Collins for that award.

Brandon Rush hasn’t been the most efficient, but given his team-leading playing time, he must be doing something right, and his total contributions are higher than most on the team.  Rush has upped his scoring to nearly 16 PTS in conference play with 6.6 REB, shooting 51.3 eFG% and an improved 77% from the line.  He doesn’t do enough of the other things (BLK, STL, AST) to make him a superstar-rated player though.

How the mighty have fallen.  Chalmers was chugging along earlier this season with a clear path to the top of the ratings, but he has really come down to earth in conference play.  Mario averages just under 10 PTS, 3.7 REB, 3.1 AST and 2.4 STL in 29 min/gm.  He’s shooting a shade over 50 eFG% and 78% from the line.  He’s just not shooting enough to be as big a factor as most anticipated he would be.  The conference season is only halfway done though, so there is still time for Chalmers.

Kaun and Arthur have really slipped the last several games.  Both have almost identical conference season numbers.  Each shoots well over 50 eFG% but struggles mightily at the FT line.  In the neighborhood of 20 min/gm, each player averages only about 4 REB and about 1 BLK while scoring about 8 PTS.  Not efficient or very impactful except in some spurts.

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

Explanation of Terms

NOTE: From top to bottom, the statistics are sorted such that, at the top are the greatest advantages to the team on the left,
and at the bottom are the greatest advantages for the team on the right. 

Clear Advantage for Kansas

No Clear Advantage

Clear Advantage for Missouri

Kansas 3pt FG%**

 

 

Missouri OREB**

 

 

Missouri FT%

 

 

Missouri FT Rate

 

 

Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked**

 

 

Kansas OREB**

 

 

Missouri % Poss STL by Opp**

 

 

 

Missouri 2pt FG%

 

Kansas eFG%**

 

 

 

Kansas FT Rate

 

 

Missouri PTS/Poss

 

 

Missouri TO rate

 

 

Missouri % own 2FGA's blocked

 

 

Missouri eFG%

 

 

Kansas PTS/Poss

 

 

Kansas 2pt FG%

 

 

Kansas FT%

 

 

Missouri 3pt FG%

 

 

 

Kansas TO rate**

 

 

Kansas % Poss STL by Opp**

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category

Kansas will take below avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Missouri will take above avg % of its FG's from 3-pt

Expect uptempo game


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