By the Numbers: Kansas at Colorado

The last time a ranked team played in Boulder, the Buffaloes came away with an upset victory.  It won't be nearly as easy to knock off the Jayhawks.  Let's take a look at some of the numbers that shape this matchup.

 

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 336 Div-I teams (Source: KenPom.com)

KANSAS

  • Offense #23 - Defense #3 - Tempo #62
  • Usually win the all-important eFG% category (#14 allowed, #34 own)
  • Rank #42 in 2FG% and #6 in 2FG% allowed
  • Rank #48 in 3FG%
  • Great on the offensive glass (#36 in rebounding, #35 in allowing)
  • Rank #32 in rate of forcing TO’s, including #15 in STL rate
  • Dominate the blocking game, #3 in BLK and #33 in avoiding BLK
  • Rank #50 in eFG%
  • Rank #318 in % of FGA's that are 3FG, but allow plenty by opp (#255)

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Feb 11, 2007)

 

COLORADO

  • Offense #203 - Defense #156 - Tempo #7
  • Very weak on both sides of eFG% category: #283 shooting, #311 allowed
  • In particular, 3FG% disadvantage on both sides: #295 shooting, #331 allowed
  • Turn it over too often (#289)
  • Poor FT shooting (#271 – 65.3%)
  • Good job of blocking shots (#39)

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Feb 11, 2007)

Other Efficiency Notes:

  • On offense, KU relies extremely heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely more on 3FG's at the expense of 2FG’s.
  • On offense, CU relies less than the average amount on 3FG's but more on FT’s, while its opponents rely more on 2FG's at the expense of 3FG’s.

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Click Here for Explanation of Ratings

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")
 

PLAYER

ePSAN70

ePSAN

Julian Wright

6.51

110.26

Darnell Jackson

6.05

56.32

Brady Morningstar*

4.95

7.42

Sherron Collins

4.69

64.36

Mario Chalmers

4.42

81.70

Russell Robinson

3.74

67.81

Darrell Arthur

3.73

45.74

Brandon Rush

3.71

76.54

Jeremy Case*

2.92

5.52

Sasha Kaun

2.74

29.05

Rodrick Stewart*

-0.08

-0.21

Matt Kleinmann*

-1.86

-2.11

Brennan Bechard*

-2.55

-0.84

Brad Witherspoon*

-13.63

-3.28

* Rating not based on enough data.

Colorado

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER

cPSAN70

cPSAN

James Inge*

5.63

6.34

Dominique Coleman

2.29

33.04

Jermyl Jackson-Wilson

1.80

21.94

Marc Van Burck*

1.44

0.45

Jeremy Williams

1.09

11.95

Richard Roby

-1.15

-19.01

Chase Perkowski*

-1.54

-0.89

Marcus King-Stockton

-1.62

-16.31

Xavier Silas

-2.03

-32.42

Kalvin Bay

-2.70

-30.33

Sean Kowal*

-3.41

-14.30

Dwight Thorne

-4.70

-33.67

Trent Beckley*

-7.65

-1.20

* Rating not based on enough data.

Game Outlook

Here are some things we can reasonably expect:

  • This will be an uptempo game.
  • KU is expected to shoot well, win the rebounding battle and force lots of TO’s from CU.
  • Nothing is really in favor of the Buffaloes.
  • KU’s most vulnerable areas that CU might exploit are its ability to get to and score from the freethrow line, turnovers and perhaps blocking some of KU’s shots (though KU is darn good at avoiding this).
  • Considering that all shooting categories favor KU anyway, the expected fastbreaks from CU turnovers should result in an extremely high KU eFG%.

On paper, certainly it doesn’t look good for the Buffs.  KU has been prone to offensive lapses, particularly on the road, but not lately.  CU’s best chance may be to keep KU away from offensive rebounds, hope KU is careless with the ball and that Kaun and Arthur take plenty of the freethrows.  A 35-point effort from Richard Roby might not be a bad thing either.


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