By the Numbers: Kansas at Oklahoma

After destroying its last six opponents by nearly 29 points per game, co-conference leader Kansas aims to spoil Oklahoma's Senior Night.  Let's see how the numbers stack up in this Big Monday matchup.

 

Kansas

Oklahoma

Talent Indicators

 

 

Div I Records

25-4

14-12

AP Rank

6
(Last week)

NR

Pomeroy Rating
(Updated daily)

2

29

Consensus Ranking
(Updated periodically - avg several computer ratings and polls)

7
(Last week)

65
(Last week)

RPI

16

103

Best opponents defeated this season
(Ranking from Pomeroy)

vs Florida (# 4) W 82-80 (OT)
vs USC (# 30) W 72-62

vs Texas Tech (# 58) W 75-61
vs Oklahoma St (# 69) W 67-60

Predictions

 

 

Vegas Oddsmakers

 Win by 7
Projection: 68-61

 

Prediction Tracker
 (Average of several power ratings)

TBD

Sagarin Power Ratings (Predictor)

Win by 6.4

 

Pomeroy
(Efficiency and Tempo-Adjusted)

Win 65-59
76% chance of victory

 

Last 10 Games
(Uses team performance and consistency over last 7 venue-appropriate games + 3 other most recent games.)

Win by 10.3
94.7% chance of victory

 

Weighted Avg of Available Models Above
(30% Vegas + 20% Prediction Tracker + 15% Sagarin + 15% Pomeroy + 20% Last 10)

Win by 7.5
Projection: 67-59

 

Analysis: Last 5 Venue-Appropriate Games

The charts below illustrate the performance for each team over their last 5 venue-appropriate games.  That is, KU road games and Oklahoma home games.  The “Performance” is calculated by taking the opponent’s Sagarin rating for the game and adding (subtracting) the margin of victory (loss) for each game after factoring in home court advantage.

There are some similarities between both teams’ performances in their last five venue-appropriate games.  Both teams have performed better than their overall power rating, although KU has done so to a much greater degree (8 points better versus OU’s 1.2 points better).  Furthermore, both teams have trended downward over this series of games.  Every game has resulted in a lower performance rating than the last.  The difference is that KU started out much higher and didn’t drop quite as much as OU over the five-game stretch.  Thus, over the last five venue-appropriate games for each team, Kansas has been 17.2 points better than Oklahoma.  This analysis would suggest a very comfortable victory for Kansas.

PSAN Player Ratings – Conference Only

Note: These ratings do not adjust for strength of opponent, since conference-only Sagarin ratings are not available.  For more information behind the methodology of PSAN ratings, visit this page.  Ratings are shown only for players who average at least 8 minutes per game.

Kansas

PSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
PSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER

PSAN70

PSAN

Darnell Jackson

6.29

31.54

Julian Wright

5.28

47.25

Sherron Collins

4.85

42.67

Russell Robinson (OUT?)

4.59

41.11

Darrell Arthur

3.20

20.92

Brandon Rush

2.90

32.69

Mario Chalmers

2.72

27.59

Sasha Kaun

2.69

17.24

Oklahoma

PSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
PSAN ("Total Impact")

PLAYER

PSAN70

PSAN

Nate Carter

5.10

47.79

Longar Longar

1.07

7.46

Michael Neal

0.56

5.52

David Godbold

-0.02

-0.18

Austin Johnson

-0.47

-3.54

Taylor Griffin

-0.62

-4.16

Tony Crocker

-1.05

-7.06

Bobby Maze

-1.68

-8.26

Player Analysis:
(largely based on ratings above)

It’s a good thing Nate Carter has shown up in conference play, because the rest of the Sooners sure haven’t.  He’s nearly quadrupled his scoring in conference play.  In conference games, Carter averages 30 minutes, shoots 52 eFG%, averages a team-high 16 PTS and grabs 7 REB per game.  Although he does little else on paper, he also keeps his TO’s to a minimum (about one per game).

After Carter, most everyone on OU’s team performs at a largely neutral efficiency level.  Longar Longar’s scoring has dipped a couple of points in conference play to about 9 PTS, but he still pulls down a team-high 7.5 REB per game.  He’s averaging about 1.3 BLK but also turning it over 2.5 times per game.  Although he’s shooting 57 eFG% overall this season, it’s only 51 eFG% in conference play.  Considering the slim positive scoring margin OU has averaged in conference play, Longar’s numbers add up to only slightly positive efficiency rating.

Michael Neal is shooting a very healthy 54 eFG% (36% from 3FG) while averaging 11 PTS and 2.4 REB in conference play.  But other than scoring, he isn’t doing much on paper.

The rest of the rotation is really struggling with their shots, each shooting anywhere from the mid 40’s eFG% down to the upper 30’s.  None averages 4 REB per game in conference play, none averages 7 PTS and none dishes 3 AST per game.

For Kansas, the surprise story is still Darnell Jackson.  In conference play, he is now clearly the most efficient player.  In just 14 minutes per game, DJ shoots 55 eFG%, grabs 5.3 REB, gets nearly a block per game and scores 5 PTS.  At that pace, if he played a 30 minute game, he’d be averaging a double double.

Julian Wright has made the most statistical impact in conference play, averaging 11 PTS, 8 REB, 1.4 BLK and 1.6 STL on 51 eFG% shooting and 26 minutes per game.  His rebounding in particular has propelled Kansas back into a title-worthy competitor.

Announcers and pundits are running out of words to describe Sherron Collins’ brilliant play.  Maybe I’ll just call him “Presto” from now on.  Just give him the ball on the perimeter and … PRESTO … something good magically happens as he drives and dishes or lays it in.  Unbelievably, Collins shoots 66 eFG% in conference play averaging 13 PTS, 3.6 AST (2.1 AST:TO ratio) and nearly 1 STL per game.  Although he doesn’t start, he’s averaging 25 minutes and is often on the floor in crunch time.

Darrell Arthur has really come on strong since the loss to Texas A&M.  In conference play, he’s now averaging 9 PTS and 5 REB in just 19 MIN.  He shoots a healthy 54 eFG% but only 53% from the line.  He’s been a real beast in the last six games, scoring in double figures five times, with a double double the last two games, shooting a sizzling 60 eFG%.  One major difference in conference play for Arthur is that he doesn’t block nearly the same number of shots as he did early in the season.

Both Brandon Rush and Mario Chalmers have played somewhat less efficiently than they are capable of playing.  Rush leads the team in scoring in conference play with 14.4 PTS and 6 REB on solid 52.5 eFG% shooting.  But he’s averaging 32 minutes per game and not showing much else.  Fortunately, he’s upped his FT percentage to 74.5% in conference play.  Meanwhile, Chalmers shoots 53 eFG%, 78% from the line, averages 10 PTS, 3.6 REB and 2.3 STL in 29 minutes per game.  Decent but not great efficiency for both.

Sasha Kaun has been playing a bit worse of late.  He still exhibits nice post moves on occasion but often fails to recognize when he should pass the ball.  In conference play, Kaun is shooting 58 eFG% but a miserable 36% from the line.  He is also averaging 7 PTS, 4 REB and shares the team lead with Julian Wright with 1.4 BLK.  As a starter on one of the nation’s most talented teams, it just wouldn’t make sense to say Kaun is a bad player … he’s not.  He has room to improve though.

Russell Robinson will be a game-time decision, as his turf toe may not have healed yet.


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