By the Numbers: Oklahoma at Kansas

After a tough home loss, Oklahoma travels to face a Jayhawks team that is firing on all cylinders.  Kansas figures to be a big favorite, even against a strong Sooner team.  Let's look at how some of the numbers shape up.

Analysis: Last 5 Venue-Appropriate Games

The charts below illustrate the performance for each team over their last 5 venue-appropriate games.  That is, KU home games and Oklahoma non-home games.  The red bar represents each team's current Sagarin Predictor rating, which best represents team strength for the entire season.  The "Performance" is calculated by taking the opponent's Sagarin rating for the game and adding (subtracting) the margin of victory (loss) for each game.  Home advantage is also factored into the equation.

Both teams appear to be playing quite well in their respective venues.  In this analysis, Kansas has performed right around its season average.  Oklahoma has actually outperformed its season rating by 3.6 points.  Thus, over the last five venue-appropriate games for each team, Kansas has been 6.4 points better than Oklahoma.  Another 4.3 points can be given to KU for the expected homecourt advantage on Monday, meaning this analysis predicts a double-digit victory for Kansas.  Notice though that Oklahoma's last two performances have been as high as any of KU's last five.  Thus, it's possible (but still unlikely) that OU could give KU a run for its money.

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 341 Div-I teams
(Source: KenPom.com)

Kansas

Oklahoma

  • Offense #6 - Defense #3 - Tempo #84
  • Excellent shooting (#3 eFG%, #2 on 2FG% and #50 on 3FG%) and strong eFG% defense (#46)
  • Rank #6 in forcing TO's, including #1 in STL%, all while ranking #35 in avoiding own TO
  • Strong OREB% (#46) and limit opp OREB% (#45)
  • Limit opponents' use of FT line (#48)
  • Limit opp 2FG% extremely well (#7)
  • Terrible FT% (#263)
  • Dominate the BLK category (#2 limit own, #3 block opp)
  • Very high % of FG's assisted (#33)

 

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 1)

  • Offense #19 - Defense #46 - Tempo #202
  • Usually win the all-important eFG% battle (#34 own, #31 defense)
  • Keep opp off FT line (#38 FT Rate defense)
  • Give up low 3FG% (#26) while keeping own 2FG% high (#30)
  • Lose ball to STL too often (#251)
     

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 1)

Scoring Distribution:

  • On offense, KU relies heavily on 2FG's but unusually low amount on FT's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 3FG's.
  • On offense, OU is fairly balanced, while its opponents rely less than usual on FT's.

 

Keys to Watch For

Metric

 Both KU's offensive efficiency and OU's defensive efficiency are highly correlated to TO Rate.

 Kansas to limit TO Rate to below 21%

 OU's offense is highly correlated to its offensive rebounding percentage.

 OU to pull in at least 35% of available OREB

 OU is fairly inexperienced and could get rattled before they even know what him them.  In Allen Fieldhouse, to stand a chance, OU must be within striking distance at halftime.

 OU to trail by no more than 6 points at halftime.


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