By the Numbers: Kansas at Missouri

The undefeated, athletic and deep Jayhawks visit unranked Missouri. If anyone thinks the outcome is certain, there is a double overtime game from 1997 they ought to revisit.

By the Numbers: Kansas at Missouri

  Throughout the years, no matter how invincible the KU team has looked, all bets were off once they went to Missouri.  Still, it is worth looking at the numbers to see any patterns that might dictate the dynamics of this rivalry showdown.  Remember that even though Missouri is not ranked in any of the polls, most predictive power ratings rate them in the Top 30 or so, meaning that playing them in Columbia is always a tough out.  Just ask Texas, who lost there by thirteen points.

Analysis: Last 5 Venue-Appropriate Games

The charts below illustrate the performance for each team over their last 5 venue-appropriate games (KU only has 4 relevant games).  The red bar represents each team's current Sagarin Predictor rating, which represents overall team strength.  The "Performance" is calculated by taking the opponent's Sagarin rating for the game and adding (subtracting) the margin of victory (loss) for each game.  Homecourt advantage is also factored into the equation.

 

Over the last few games in the relevant venues, both teams have performed better than their season averages.  In this analysis, Kansas has performed about 1.7 points better than its season average.  Missouri has outperformed its season rating by 4.9 points.  Thus, over the last five venue-appropriate games for each team, Kansas has been 7.7 points better than Missouri.  After an adjustment for homecourt advantage, this particular analysis predicts a three or four point victory for KU.  But if KU plays like it did in its last two road games, Missouri would probably be no match.

 

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 341 Div-I teams
(Source: KenPom.com)

Kansas

Missouri

·       Offense #3 - Defense #2 - Tempo #99

·       Excellent shooting (#2 eFG%, #3 on 2FG% and #49 on 3FG%) and strong eFG% defense (#31)

·       Rank #8 in forcing TO's, including #1 in STL%, all while ranking #25 in avoiding own TO

·       Limit opp OREB% (#48)

·       Limit opponents' use of FT line (#37)

·       Limit opp 2FG% extremely well (#7)

·       Dominate the BLK category (#2 limit own, #3 block opp)

·       Very high % of FG's assisted (#33)

 

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 13)

·       Mario Chalmers - #11 eFG%, #180 AST Rate, #9 STL%

·       Russell Robinson - #194 FT Rate, #26 STL%

·       Darrell Arthur - #49 BLK%

·       Darnell Jackson - #81 OREB%, #153 DREB%

·       Sasha Kaun - #193 OREB%, #31 BLK%

·       Offense #34 - Defense #33 - Tempo #13

·       Good eFG% defense (#48)

·       Control TO on both sides (#22 limit own, #35 force opp TO), including #44 limit opp STL% and #26 STL%

·       Excellent 2FG% (#32) and amazing 3FG% defense (#2)

·       Very high % of FG's assisted (#45)
 

 

 

 

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 13)

·       Stefhon Hannah - #40 AST Rate, #116 STL%

·       DeMarre Carroll - #141 eFG%, #71 OREB%, #97 TO Rate

·       Matt Lawrence - #12 TO Rate

·       Jason Horton - #153 STL%

Scoring Distribution:

·       On offense, KU relies heavily on 2FG's but unusually low amount on FT's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 3FG's.

·       On offense, MU relies somewhat more on 2FG's, while its opponents' reliance on 3FG's ranks #336 out of 341 teams.

 

Keys to Watch For

Metric

 Increased tempo (# of possessions) has correlated to somewhat worse offensive and defensive efficiencies for KU, while MU's offensive efficiency has improved a bit with increased tempo.

 Tempo over 76 favors MU, while 71 or lower favors KU

 Neither team is particularly good at using the FT line, but it may be an important way to avoid turning the ball over and giving up fast break opportunities.

 Either team to have a FT Rate (FTM/FGA) at least 8 percent higher than opponent

 Scoring distribution patterns suggest that KU's inside players will need to be scoring.  They perform best when the team is passing the ball well into the post and not when KU bigs keep trying one-on-one moves.

 AST divided by FGM to be at least 65% for KU.

 


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