By the Numbers: Nebraska at Kansas

What's the best cure for a three-game losing streak? Certainly not a visit to Allen Fieldhouse, home of the undefeated Jayhawks. Nebraska will have its hands full this game. Here's how some of the numbers shape up.

Analysis: Last 5 Venue-Appropriate Games

The charts below illustrate the performance for each team over their last 5 venue-appropriate games. That is, KU home games and Nebraska non-home games (NU only has three non-home games this season). The red bar represents each team’s current Sagarin Predictor rating, which best represents team strength for the entire season. The “Performance” is calculated by taking the opponent’s Sagarin rating for the game and adding (subtracting) the margin of victory (loss) for each game. Home advantage is also factored into the equation.

 

In this analysis, Kansas has performed about 3 points better than its average. Nebraska has underperformed its season rating by 4 points. Thus, over the last five venue-appropriate games for each team, Kansas has been 24.3 points better than Nebraska. Another 4.3 points can be given to KU for the expected homecourt advantage, meaning this analysis predicts a blowout victory for Kansas, approaching the 30-point range.

 

Statistical Strengths and Weaknesses Analysis

(Note: These are based on raw statistics that are unadjusted for strength of opposition.) 

 

** Denotes that team with advantage also ranks in Top 50 in that category

Clear Advantage for Kansas

No Clear Advantage

Clear Advantage for Nebraska

Kansas 3pt FG%**

 

 

Nebraska OREB**

 

 

Nebraska FT%**

 

 

Nebraska % Poss STL by Opp**

 

 

Nebraska % own 2FGA's blocked**

 

 

Nebraska PTS/Poss**

 

 

 

Kansas % own 2FGA's blocked

 

 

Nebraska TO rate

 

 

Nebraska eFG%

 

 

Nebraska 3pt FG%

 

 

Nebraska 2pt FG%

 

 

Nebraska FT Rate

 

 

Kansas eFG%

 

 

Kansas PTS/Poss

 

 

Kansas 2pt FG%

 

 

Kansas TO rate

 

 

Kansas FT%

 

 

Kansas OREB

 

 

Kansas % Poss STL by Opp

 

 

 

Kansas FT Rate

 

Four Factors Game Projections

This method matches up each team’s offensive statistics against the other team’s defensive statistics. It also adjusts for the strength of opponents’ offense and defense faced so far. Thus, a team that has played an extremely weak defensive schedule will not be artificially projected to shoot well. Keep in mind that this is a projection of what would happen if each team played at its average level to date. It does account for the location of the game, but it does not adjust for teams that play particularly well or poorly based on location more so than the average team.

 

Statistic

Team With Projected Advantage

 eFG%

 KU 55-42%

 TO Rate

 KU 26-20%

 O-Reb%

 KU 36-24%

 FT Rate

 Tied 22% each

 Four Factors Overall

 KU's significant shooting edge will be reinforced with decent gains in TO and OREB% to produce a blowout.

 


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