By the Numbers: Kansas at Colorado

For the first time this season, the Jayhawks have to bounce back from a loss. The unfortunate recipient of their wrath is Colorado. Here's a look at the numbers that will play a factor.

Analysis: Last 5 Venue-Appropriate Games

The charts below illustrate the performance for each team over their last 5 venue-appropriate games. That is, KU non-home games and Colorado home games. The red bar represents each team’s current Sagarin Predictor rating, which best represents team strength for the entire season. The “Performance” is calculated by taking the opponent’s Sagarin rating for the game and adding (subtracting) the margin of victory (loss) for each game. Home advantage is also factored into the equation.

 

Kansas has not played to its season average in three of its last five road games, and the trend is downward over the last two road games. Colorado’s best performance in the five games analyzed here is still worse than KU’s worst performance. In this analysis, Kansas has performed about 1.4 points worse than its season average. Colorado has underperformed its season rating by 3.3 points. Thus, over the last five venue-appropriate games for each team, Kansas has been 25.2 points better than Colorado. A boost of 4.3 points can be given to CU for the expected homecourt advantage, meaning this analysis predicts a comfortable 21-point victory for Kansas.

Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 341 Div-I teams
(Source: KenPom.com)

Kansas

Offense #2 - Defense #2 - Tempo #69
Offensive strong in eFG% (#3) and avoiding TO's (#26)
On defense, strong in all Four Factors (eFG% #14, TO Rate #38, OREB% #36, FT Rate #40)
Dominate the 2FG% category on both sides, ranking #5 on offense and defense
#31 in 3FG% shooting
Dominate the BLK category (#1 limit own, #3 block opp)
Very high % of FG's assisted (#31)

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 27)

Mario Chalmers - #14 eFG%, #174 AST rate, #15 STL%
Russell Robinson - #128 FT Rate, #28 STL%
Darrell Arthur - #76 BLK%
Darnell Jackson - #7 eFG%, #117 OREB%, #125 DREB%
Sasha Kaun - #48 BLK%

Colorado

Offense #148 - Defense #125 - Tempo #309
Really struggle grabbing OREB (#285)
Allow very high 3FG% (#268)
Block a high % of opp 2FGA (#42)

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Jan 27)

Marcus Hall - #140 STL%
Jermyl Jackson-Wilson - #130 OREB%, #138 BLK%

Point Distribution

On offense, KU relies heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely extremely heavily on 3FG's.
On offense, CU is fairly balanced, while its opponents rely less than usual on FT's.

 

Keys to Watch For

Metric

 In road conference games, even huge underdogs can begin to believe they can win if they get hot shooting from the outside coupled with turnovers by the favorite.

 KU to limit own TO% to below 20% and limit CU to 33% on 3FG shooting

 Roby and Hall account for a combined 50% of possessions used when they're on the court.  They must be shooting the ball effectively to have a chance.

 Roby and Hall to combine for at least 55 eFG%

 KU thrives when getting easy baskets off steals and turnovers.

 KU to have at least 8 STL and force at least 17 TO

 



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