By the Numbers: Baylor at Kansas

Baylor looks like a much-improved team this season. What better way to test that than a visit to Kansas? Here's a look at how some of the numbers shape up for the showdown.

Analysis: Last 5 Venue-Appropriate Games

The charts below illustrate the performance for each team over their last 5 venue-appropriate games. That is, KU home games and Baylor non-home games. The red bar represents each team’s current Sagarin Predictor rating, which best represents team strength for the entire season. The “Performance” is calculated by taking the opponent’s Sagarin rating for the game and adding (subtracting) the margin of victory (loss) for each game. Home advantage is also factored into the equation.


Kansas played at least as well as its season average in all of its last five home games. Baylor has been no slouch either. BU has played below its season average in only one of its last four non-home games (Southern University). In fact, two of KU’s recent home game performances have been about equal to BU’s performance in the five-overtime thriller at Texas A&M. So, we know that BU is capable of making this a game if the stars align properly. The chances of that happening are extremely low. In this analysis, Kansas has performed about 6.0 points better than its season average. Baylor has also outperformed its season rating by 4.4 points. Thus, over the last five venue-appropriate games for each team, Kansas has been 15.8 points better than Baylor. A boost of 3.9 points can be given to KU for the expected homecourt advantage, meaning this analysis predicts a comfortable 20-point victory for Kansas.

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

For information on these ratings, click here.

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally


ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")





Conner Teahan*



Darnell Jackson



Mario Chalmers



Brandon Rush



Cole Aldrich



Brennan Bechard*



Sasha Kaun



Tyrel Reed*



Darrell Arthur



Russell Robinson



Rodrick Stewart



Sherron Collins



Jeremy Case*



Matt Kleinmann*



Brad Witherspoon*



Chase Buford*



 * Rating not based on enough data.


cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")





LaceDarius Dunn



Mamadou Diene



Kevin Rogers



Delbert Simpson



Curtis Jerrells



Djibril (Penny) Thiam



Aaron Bruce



Henry Dugat



Josh Lomers



Mark Shepherd



Tweety Carter



Richard Hurd*



 * Rating not based on enough data.



Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

They might as well be called the Balanced Bears.  Baylor has really spread out its contributions over the course of the season well.  There are eleven players who average at least 8 minutes per game, not one of whom has a negative efficiency rating.  Although none of the BU players sport efficiency ratings above +4.00, they have three players with solid ratings above +3.00.  The most contributions have come from the 6-9 junior, Kevin Rogers.  He's shot a nice 52 eFG% on his way to nearly 13 PTS and 8 REB per game.  He's a strong rebounder, particularly on the defensive end, and he can nail his FT when he gets to the line (nearly 80%).  He's done all this without turning it over much.


The next most significant contributor has been leading scorer, Curtis Jerrells.  He's averaged about 14 PTS, 4 REB, 4 AST on respectable 51 eFG% shooting.  Keep in mind that he does lead the team with over 30 minutes per game.  Jerrells has the statistical profile of a prototypical scorer, with other statistics being somewhat low for the number of minutes he averages.  He has done a solid job of limiting his turnovers, too.  LaceDarius Dunn has the best combination of efficiency and contribution this season.  The 6-4 freshman has shot over 56 eFG% and limited his TO well.  He has not done all that much in the way of other statistics, although he has a respectable rate of STL.  He has been remarkably efficient though, particularly for a freshman on a team that doesn't have a bunch of stars playing around him.


The senior, Aaron Bruce, has a lower rating than expected.  He has shot the well extremely well at 56 eFG% overall and 44% from 3FG.  The problem is that he lacks much else other than scoring, and he has turned it over fairly frequently (1.3:1 AST:TO ratio).  In contrast, Mamadou Diene has had the same net positive contribution as Bruce in only two-thirds the amount of playing time.  Diene has shot 63 eFG% with few turnovers, plenty of BLK and strong rebounding.


Baylor isn't the only team on the court with balance though.  The Jayhawks are solid from top to bottom, with two superstar-level contributors in Darnell Jackson and Mario Chalmers.  Both players sizzle from the field in shooting (about 65 eFG%).  Each also contributes heavily in other categories.  Jackson is a strong rebounder, makes excellent use of the FT line and limits his TO.  Chalmers makes good use of the FT line as well, creates with his passing and is one of the nation's premier players in ability to steal the ball.


Brandon Rush has been building very nicely this season.  His efficiency continues to rise as his ACL-repaired knee continues to heal.  By most accounts, he is effectively at 100% now.  Rush is shooting a healthy 54 eFG% (43% from 3FG) and is probably one of the best defensive rebounders around for his size.  KU will need him to continue looking for his shot if they want to advance deep in March.  Sasha Kaun and Cole Aldrich have had solid seasons in the low post for KU.  Kaun clearly has the edge in experience and thus has played many more minutes.  But Aldrich, a freshman, looks as though he is a better rebounder and can set some very nice picks and screens.  With Darrell Arthur completing the foursome, KU has one of the nation's strongest frontcourts.  Arthur is a terrific scorer, able to get off a shot with a variety of spin moves and fadeaways.  He has shot the ball well (53 eFG%) and rebounded nicely, particularly on the offensive end.


At times, Russell Robinson looks like the starting point guard for a #1-seed.  At others, he seems to forget what his role on the team should be.  Fortunately, he spends most of his time as the former.  That's how he has shot 50 eFG% and made such excellent use of the FT line while passing the ball well and stealing from opponents at an impressive rate.  Those games where Robinson seems to take quick shots or drive to the basket too often when no KU players are around to help out is when he seems to struggle.  Defensively, he is key for KU and will continue to be the "glue" guy for the rest of the season.  Right behind him, though, is the star-in-waiting ... Sherron Collins.  This has not been a great season overall for Collins in terms of stats.  Sure he has shot 55 eFG% (38% from 3FG), but he doesn't get to the line much, hasn't created with his passing as much as expected, and he has turned the ball over too often.  There is no question he provides something no other Jayhawk can, but his efficiency has to get better if he is going to be a major contributor to a title run down the stretch. Top Stories