By the Numbers: Kansas at Oklahoma St.

Oklahoma State hasn't beaten Kansas in the regular season since 2004. The Cowboys try for the upset on their home court. Let's take a look at how the numbers shape up.

Analysis: Last 5 Venue-Appropriate Games

The charts below illustrate the performance for each team over their last 5 venue-appropriate games. That is, KU non-home games and OSU home games. The red bar represents each team’s current Sagarin Predictor rating, which best represents team strength for the entire season. The “Performance” is calculated by taking the opponent’s Sagarin rating for the game and adding (subtracting) the margin of victory (loss) for each game. Home advantage is also factored into the equation.

 

Kansas has underperformed its season average on the road recently, doing so in all its last four games away from home. OSU has only underperformed its season average in one of its last five home games (1-point victory over Colorado). In fact, its best performance (Texas Tech) was better than all but one of KU’s last five road game performances. OSU is capable of pulling off this upset. In this analysis, Kansas has performed about 3.2 points worse than its season average. OSU has outperformed its season rating by 4.8 points. Thus, over the last five venue-appropriate games for each team, Kansas has been 9.0 points better than OSU. A boost of 4 points can be given to OSU for the expected homecourt advantage, meaning this analysis projects a fairly close 5-point victory for Kansas.

PSAN-Related Player Ratings - Cumulative This Season

For information on these ratings, click here.

Note: ePSAN70 weighs recent games more, but cPSAN70 weighs all games equally

Kansas

ePSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
ePSAN ("Total Impact")

 

PLAYER

ePSAN70

ePSAN

Mario Chalmers

6.95

128.26

Darnell Jackson

6.67

109.87

Conner Teahan*

6.03

7.52

Cole Aldrich

5.72

31.33

Darrell Arthur

5.04

76.27

Tyrel Reed*

4.96

13.39

Brandon Rush

4.92

88.46

Brennan Bechard*

4.86

1.88

Sasha Kaun

4.59

52.01

Russell Robinson

4.12

74.18

Rodrick Stewart

3.81

28.55

Sherron Collins

2.06

26.38

Matt Kleinmann*

1.62

1.26

Jeremy Case*

1.49

3.66

Brad Witherspoon*

-4.17

-1.59

Chase Buford*

-9.12

-3.62

 * Rating not based on enough data.

Oklahoma State

cPSAN70 ("Efficiency" - per 70 possessions)
cPSAN ("Total Impact")

  

PLAYER

cPSAN70

cPSAN

Scott Warner*

17.88

0.87

Marshall Moses*

3.00

8.78

Tyler Hatch*

2.80

6.84

Byron Eaton

2.59

43.56

James Anderson

2.10

40.14

Marcus Dove

1.90

38.69

Anthony Brown (out)
 

1.23

5.41

Ibrahima Thomas

1.12

11.16

Nick Sidorakis

1.00

4.51

Terrel Harris

0.63

11.73

Obi Muonelo

0.26

3.94

Martavius Adams

-0.72

-4.63

 * Rating not based on enough data.

 

 


Player Analysis:

(largely in context of ratings above)

The bulk of the Cowboys' contributions have come from the trio of Byron Eaton, James Anderson and Marcus Dove.  In fact, since boxscore statistics are so poor at picking up the impact of individual defense, it would make sense to argue that Dove has been the biggest contributor on the season for OSU.  Yet, no player has had an efficient season.  It's actually quite unusual to see a team with nearly every player rated somewhere between zero and +3.

 

Eaton shoots the ball rather poorly (45 eFG%).  Unlike past seasons, though, he is not turning the ball nearly as much.  He has a sky-high FTM/FGA ratio, as he gets to the line often and makes a deadly 83% when he's there.  On defense, he can generate steals just as often as the KU theft artists can.  Anderson's overall impact has been about the same as Eaton's, although it comes from his ability to shoot the ball well (55 eFG%).  Anderson is a pure shooter, taking the most 3FG on the team and making 39%.  He doesn't do much else from a statistical standpoint though.   The other top player, Dove, shoots very little but doesn't hurt the team too much when he does (49 eFG%).  His biggest contributions come on the defensive side, with solid STL and BLK percentages.

 

The other two players of note for OSU are Ibrahima Thomas (6-11 freshman who has predicted a Cowboy victory) and Terrel Harris (6-5 junior).  Thomas shoots fairly well (55 eFG%) and has decent rebounding and blocks numbers.  He hasn't played a whole lot though, plus he has the lowest AST rate on the team.  Harris has shot too poorly (47 eFG%) from the field and turned it over too often to rate any higher.

 

KU has several players with strong ratings and major contributions.  Chalmers and Jackson have contributed the most statistically all season long, but Darrell Arthur has begun picking up the pace recently.  Freshman Cole Aldrich has played efficiently all season long, which is a testament to Coach Self's ability to use him in the right places.  Watching Aldrich, it is evident that he has much to learn about the basics, but his natural ability to block shots, set screens and rebound have allowed him to make a nice impact so far.  Brandon Rush needs to keep taking the shots when they're there, and his defensive rebounding continues to be a strong suit.  He doesn't attack the basket very much though, as evidenced by his very low FT rate.

 

Russell Robinson and Sherron Collins share point guard duties, and many people debate which should be starting and/or playing the most.  Robinson has a tendency to take shots too quickly and drive to the basket with poor results, while Collins has a tendency to turn the ball over at crucial times.  Regardless, KU needs both players at their best if they want to win the big games down the stretch. 


Phog.net Top Stories