By the Numbers: Texas Tech at Kansas

Statistics cannot capture the emotional nature of tonight's game against the Red Raiders. Senior Night is the last chance for several KU players to breathe in the magic of the Phog. With that as the backdrop, here is how some of the numbers look.

Analysis: Last 5 Venue-Appropriate Games

The charts below illustrate the performance for each team over their last 5 venue-appropriate games. That is, KU home games and Texas Tech non-home games. The red bar represents each team’s current Sagarin Predictor rating, which best represents team strength for the entire season. The “Performance” is calculated by taking the opponent’s Sagarin rating for the game and adding (subtracting) the margin of victory (loss) for each game. Home advantage is also factored into the equation.


Kansas has hovered fairly close to its season average performance over the last five home games, with the exception of probably its best performance against Nebraska. If anything, this bodes extremely poorly for TTU, as it shows that KU rarely, if ever, has a bad game at home. Texas Tech has been all over the place in its last five road games. Their best performance (at Colorado) was slightly higher than KU’s average for the season! Meanwhile, their lowest (at Texas A&M) forced me to change the scale on the graph so the bar would actually show up.


In this analysis, Kansas has performed about 3.2 points better than its season average. TTU has underperformed its season rating by 7.9 points. Thus, over the last five venue-appropriate games for each team, Kansas has been 25.2 points better than ISU. After a 4-pt homecourt edge is factored in, this analysis projects a blowout victory for the Jayhawks, possibly approaching 30 points.



Highlighted Efficiency Rankings
Note: There are 341 Div-I teams




Offense #2 - Defense #2 - Tempo #81
Usually win the all-important eFG% battle (#7 own, #21 defense)
Good at limiting own TO (#44)
Strong rebounding on both sides (#23 OREB, #24 limit opp OREB)
Strong 3FG% (#50)
Dominant 2FG% on offense (#7) and defense (#6)
Dominate the BLK category (#6 limit own, #4 block opp)
Rank #14 in STL from opp
Very low 3FGA as % of total FGA (#290), but opp takes a lot (#257 at preventing)
High % of FG's assisted (#45)


Individual Player Highlights: (thru Feb 24)
Mario Chalmers - #36 eFG%, #145 AST rate, #26 STL%
Russell Robinson - #101 FT Rate, #54 STL%
Darrell Arthur - #126 OREB%, #68 BLK%
Darnell Jackson - #14 eFG%, #168 DREB%
Sasha Kaun - #147 OREB%, #48 BLK%


Texas Tech

Offense #84 - Defense #44 - Tempo #71
Good at forcing TO (#50)
Terrible OREB% (#320)
Rank #4 in FT Rate
Hardly BLK any opp shots (#269)
Very low 3FGA as % of total FGA (#327)
Opps have very high % of FG's assisted (#8)

Individual Player Highlights: (thru Feb 24)

Martin Zeno - #64 FT Rate
Alan Voskuil - #27 eFG%

Scoring Distribution:

On offense, KU relies heavily on 2FG's, while its opponents rely very heavily on 3FG's. 
On offense, TTU relies extremely heavily on FT's but very little on 3FG's, while its opponents rely less than usual on FT's.



Keys to Watch For


 Both KU's offensive efficiency and TTU's defensive efficiency are highly correlated to TO Rate. In a highly-charged atmosphere such as Senior Night, the KU players may be a bit tight, especially at first.

 Kansas to limit TO Rate to 20% or lower

 It may not make intuitive sense, since the more talented team usually benefits from more possessions, but the numbers show that KU's offense is slightly worse with higher tempo, while TTU is better on offense and defense with higher tempo.  None of those trends are statistically significant, but it bears watching.

 Tempo over 73 possessions may favor TTU, contrary to conventional wisdom.

 TTU relies very heavily on free throws to score points.  The two biggest contributors from the FT strip are Zeno and Voskuil.  If either has a Byron Eaton-esque performance, things could get more interesting than KU fans might want.

 Zeno and Voskuil to combine for at least 18 FT attempts. Top Stories